Democratic pickup in MS-01

[Torie]

Final result is 54%-46% for Childers, a 7,962 vote margin.

7.47% margin. My wild guess back when of 7% wasn't too bad as it turns out.

[Sam Spade]

Good call on the numbers - for some reason my vote predictor has been slow this evening - I was crap on WV too.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Whoomp, there it is.

[7,052,770]

Message to Roger Wicker:  We took your old seat.  And in November, we're taking your current seat.

[MarkWarner08]

Message to Roger Wicker:  We took your old seat.  And in November, we're taking your current seat.

Message from John Ensign to Harry: If that happens, Democrats will control 60 Senate seats after November.

[7,052,770]

Message to Roger Wicker:  We took your old seat.  And in November, we're taking your current seat.

Message from John Ensign to Harry: If that happens, Democrats will control 60 Senate seats after November.

that's not necessarily true, but I like the way that sounds so I won't dispute it.

[Tender Branson]

Good morning ! What an awful defeat for the Republicans.

I´m really looking forward to November ...

[MarkWarner08]

Message to Roger Wicker:  We took your old seat.  And in November, we're taking your current seat.

Message from John Ensign to Harry: If that happens, Democrats will control 60 Senate seats after November.

that's not necessarily true, but I like the way that sounds so I won't dispute it.

Let's think about it.

Democrat favored:
NJ

Leaning Democratic:
VA
NM
NH

Tossups:
LA (D)
CO
AK

Leaning Republican:
MN
OR
ME

Republican Favored:
NC
MS
TX
KY
OK

I currently have MS pegged as the 9th most vulnerable Republican Senate seat. If Democrats win the eight more vulnerable seats and  capture the MS seat Musgrove is running for, you will have your 60 seat majority. Of course, my own guess puts the pick-up between 3-6 seats right now.

[7,052,770]

MS ought to be listed as a tossup.  Wicker is an awful candidate, and is not well known outside of NE Mississippi.  Musgrove has twice won statewide elections and is well-known.  He just had the misfortune of being matched up against political genius Haley Barbour in 2003.

I can't believe Barbour screwed up the appointment so bad...he's smarter than that.

Also, before you accuse me of being a silly extreme optimist, I am far from alone in my belief that Musgrove will pull it out.  Most local analysts believe that the race is going to be very close.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Message to Roger Wicker:  We took your old seat.  And in November, we're taking your current seat.

Message to delusional Mississippi Democrats.  We had/have a sh*thole candidate in MS-01 in a race that became very regional.  We have a great candidate for Senate, and regionalism won't be a factor.

[7,052,770]

Message to Roger Wicker:  We took your old seat.  And in November, we're taking your current seat.

Message to delusional Mississippi Democrats.  We had/have a sh*thole candidate in MS-01 in a race that became very regional.  We have a great candidate for Senate, and regionalism won't be a factor.

Wicker is a worse statewide candidate than Davis was for MS-1.  If it were Pickering vs. Musgrove, I would be pretty unconfident, but since it's Wicker (his IQ is maybe 80), I'm pretty confident that Musgrove will win.  Obama getting around 43-44% in the state should pull Musgrove over the top if he can't quite get there on his on.

[Aizen]

Well, at the very least, I wouldn't classify Wicker as "safe" like Cochran

[HardRCafé]

If it were Pickering vs. Musgrove, I would be pretty unconfident, but since it's Wicker (his IQ is maybe 80), I'm pretty confident that Musgrove will win.

I know your IQ isn't 80, either, but it's hard to tell when you make a post like that.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I can't believe Childers won!  I think its good that the Democrats are expanding their Congressional majority into the South, as a lot of the region was untouched by 2006.  I hope he can be re-elected in November and I think Obama on the ticket can be an asset for him if he is clever and careful. 

[Mr.Phips]

I can't believe Childers won!  I think its good that the Democrats are expanding their Congressional majority into the South, as a lot of the region was untouched by 2006.  I hope he can be re-elected in November and I think Obama on the ticket can be an asset for him if he is clever and careful. 

Childers should be able to hold this seat for a while.  This district is very much like AL-05, which Bud Cramer has held fairly easily since 1990. 

[CollectiveInterest]

"Ha ha"

The Bush hangover and the Iraq War hangover should keep the Republicans from controlling Congress for decades... if the Democrats aren't complete screw-ups. That's a big "if", but...

[Brittain33]

Would anyone have predicted that the margin here would be wider than the margin in LA-06?

[7,052,770]

If it were Pickering vs. Musgrove, I would be pretty unconfident, but since it's Wicker (his IQ is maybe 80), I'm pretty confident that Musgrove will win.

I know your IQ isn't 80, either, but it's hard to tell when you make a post like that.

What are you trying to argue?  That Musgrove is going to lose, or that Wicker is a good candidate?

[Sam Spade]

I have a serious question:  When is the last time (or has it ever happened) that two Senate seats from a state have been up for election in the same year and candidates from opposite parties have won them?

[Brittain33]

I have a serious question:  When is the last time (or has it ever happened) that two Senate seats from a state have been up for election in the same year and candidates from opposite parties have won them?

1996, Oregon. Not on the same day, though, and it surely matters because Smith won in part based on his loss to Wyden.

[Sam Spade]

I have a serious question:  When is the last time (or has it ever happened) that two Senate seats from a state have been up for election in the same year and candidates from opposite parties have won them?

1996, Oregon. Not on the same day, though, and it surely matters because Smith won in part based on his loss to Wyden.

It's only same-day elections I'm asking about, because they are the only ones relevant to Mississippi 2008.  My memory, as failing as it gets, knows nothing has happened since 1976.

[Joe Republic]

The last time it happened on the same day was South Carolina in 1966; Strom Thurmond (R) was re-elected, and Fritz Hollings (D) won the special election.

[Sam Spade]

The last time it happened on the same day was South Carolina in 1966; Strom Thurmond (R) was re-elected, and Fritz Hollings (D) won the special election.

ty

[minionofmidas]

Looks like South Memphis (thank you, Cheney) wasn't enough for Greg Davis.

If Davis loses tonight, I'm sure most Republicans will say that Glenn McCullough would've beaten Childers.

And he would have. Thank you, Suburban Republicans!
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[minionofmidas]

Is this the "Mississippi Burning" district?

That's MS-2, I think.

MS-3, actually.