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Author Topic: NC PrimD: Survey USA: Obama leads Clinton by 9  (Read 5313 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: April 22, 2008, 10:18:57 pm »
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New Poll: North Carolina President by Survey USA on 2008-04-21

Summary:
Obama:
50%
Clinton:
41%
Other:
4%
Undecided:
5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: April 22, 2008, 10:20:19 pm »
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I like how 15% of those who have already voted are "undecided" ... Tongue

Results for early voters (6% of the sample):

Obama: 47%
Clinton: 35%
Undecided: 15%
Other: 2%
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Duke
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« Reply #2 on: April 22, 2008, 10:26:17 pm »
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Undecideds are Hillary voters who are too afraid to sound racist when asked. So 50-47 Clinton on early votes.
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Grad Students are the Worst
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« Reply #3 on: April 22, 2008, 10:32:13 pm »
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Undecideds are Hillary voters who are too afraid to sound racist when asked. So 50-47 Clinton on early votes.

Haha, that's some of the most ridiculous poll analysis I've ever heard.
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« Reply #4 on: April 22, 2008, 10:34:38 pm »
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Undecideds are Hillary voters who are too afraid to sound racist when asked. So 50-47 Clinton on early votes.

Haha, that's some of the most ridiculous poll analysis I've ever heard.

I was joking, but there's an underlying truth to that. Why else would Obama constantly overpoll in exit polls?
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« Reply #5 on: April 22, 2008, 10:36:18 pm »
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Undecideds are Hillary voters who are too afraid to sound racist when asked. So 50-47 Clinton on early votes.

Haha, that's some of the most ridiculous poll analysis I've ever heard.

I was joking, but there's an underlying truth to that. Why else would Obama constantly overpoll in exit polls?
Um... he doesn't?
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Duke
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« Reply #6 on: April 22, 2008, 10:38:13 pm »
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Undecideds are Hillary voters who are too afraid to sound racist when asked. So 50-47 Clinton on early votes.

Haha, that's some of the most ridiculous poll analysis I've ever heard.

I was joking, but there's an underlying truth to that. Why else would Obama constantly overpoll in exit polls?
Um... he doesn't?

Were you joking? Seriously.

I thought we already established Obama overpolling in exit polls. People are simply more eager to tell someone they voted for Obama rather than Clinton.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7 on: April 22, 2008, 10:38:50 pm »
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Undecideds are Hillary voters who are too afraid to sound racist when asked. So 50-47 Clinton on early votes.

Haha, that's some of the most ridiculous poll analysis I've ever heard.

I was joking, but there's an underlying truth to that. Why else would Obama constantly overpoll in exit polls?

Maybe the exit poll company is a joke. Most of the other polls have been right, with the exception of PPP. They should better stay out of PA in the future ... Wink
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #8 on: April 22, 2008, 10:39:29 pm »
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People who voted forgot who they voted for? I'm lost.
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ℒief
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« Reply #9 on: April 22, 2008, 10:40:23 pm »
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Undecideds are Hillary voters who are too afraid to sound racist when asked. So 50-47 Clinton on early votes.

Haha, that's some of the most ridiculous poll analysis I've ever heard.

I was joking, but there's an underlying truth to that. Why else would Obama constantly overpoll in exit polls?
Um... he doesn't?

Were you joking? Seriously.

I thought we already established Obama overpolling in exit polls. People are simply more eager to tell someone they voted for Obama rather than Clinton.

The early exit polls, yeah, but those are useless and unweighted. The adjusted exit polls aren't significantly off.
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Duke
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« Reply #10 on: April 22, 2008, 10:42:43 pm »
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People who voted forgot who they voted for? I'm lost.

I'm not really sure, either. 15% undecided on who already voted?
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« Reply #11 on: April 22, 2008, 10:51:57 pm »
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Undecideds are Hillary voters who are too afraid to sound racist when asked. So 50-47 Clinton on early votes.

Haha, that's some of the most ridiculous poll analysis I've ever heard.

I was joking, but there's an underlying truth to that. Why else would Obama constantly overpoll in exit polls?
Um... he doesn't?

Were you joking? Seriously.

I thought we already established Obama overpolling in exit polls. People are simply more eager to tell someone they voted for Obama rather than Clinton.

The early exit polls, yeah, but those are useless and unweighted. The adjusted exit polls aren't significantly off.

In all fairness, they adjust it to whatever result they're seeing.

But that Obama overpolls in exit polls has nothing to with his performance in normal polls, which in the South tends to be under-performance.

Pollsters haven't been very good with handling southern blacks this year, and SUSA hasn't been one of the holier pollsters about that.
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ℒief
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« Reply #12 on: April 22, 2008, 10:53:04 pm »
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Undecideds are Hillary voters who are too afraid to sound racist when asked. So 50-47 Clinton on early votes.

Haha, that's some of the most ridiculous poll analysis I've ever heard.

I was joking, but there's an underlying truth to that. Why else would Obama constantly overpoll in exit polls?
Um... he doesn't?

Were you joking? Seriously.

I thought we already established Obama overpolling in exit polls. People are simply more eager to tell someone they voted for Obama rather than Clinton.

The early exit polls, yeah, but those are useless and unweighted. The adjusted exit polls aren't significantly off.

In all fairness, they adjust it to whatever result they're seeing.

But that Obama overpolls in exit polls has nothing to with his performance in normal polls, which in the South tends to be under-performance.

Pollsters haven't been very good with handling southern blacks this year, and SUSA hasn't been one of the holier pollsters about that.
Is there really any other way to do it though? The nature of exit polling makes it kind of difficult to weigh the different polling sites you poll.
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« Reply #13 on: April 22, 2008, 10:54:04 pm »
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Is there really any other way to do it though? The nature of exit polling makes it kind of difficult to weigh the different polling sites you poll.

I wish I knew more about exit poll polling, but the way it changes makes me think they just do a hard "dumb" weight.  I hope I'm wrong.
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« Reply #14 on: April 22, 2008, 11:16:24 pm »
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Is there really any other way to do it though? The nature of exit polling makes it kind of difficult to weigh the different polling sites you poll.

I wish I knew more about exit poll polling, but the way it changes makes me think they just do a hard "dumb" weight.  I hope I'm wrong.

I'm pretty sure that's what they do, yeah.
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« Reply #15 on: April 23, 2008, 06:28:12 am »
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This poll also has Hispanics going 81-17 for Obama.  I know the sample size is really small, but if 3% of the population is correct, this could help Clinton narrow Obama's margin by about 1%.
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« Reply #16 on: April 23, 2008, 09:12:15 am »
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I think that, before we read too much into this, I need to remind everyone of SUSA's (and everyone else's) stellar performance in Alabama.  The Deep South seems to be a big thorn in the pollsters' sides this year, and the peripheral South part that has blacks isn't great either.  We'll see.
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #17 on: April 23, 2008, 09:17:54 am »
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It will be fun to see how it plays out. If Obama can keep the triad, triangle for him by good margins and win the Charlotte area he will pull off a good win, but I think Clinton can cut into some of his support if she works for it.
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« Reply #18 on: April 23, 2008, 09:23:36 am »
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I think that, before we read too much into this, I need to remind everyone of SUSA's (and everyone else's) stellar performance in Alabama.  The Deep South seems to be a big thorn in the pollsters' sides this year, and the peripheral South part that has blacks isn't great either.  We'll see.

Theoretically, North Carolina should be like Virginia, except there are much, much fewer upscale whites and somehow I suspect the Republicans and Indys aren't going to do the total swing to Obama like happened in VA (times are different).  As Al would point out, fortunately for him, a decent amount of lower-income whites are Republicans, otherwise...
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« Reply #19 on: April 23, 2008, 02:07:15 pm »
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I think that, before we read too much into this, I need to remind everyone of SUSA's (and everyone else's) stellar performance in Alabama.  The Deep South seems to be a big thorn in the pollsters' sides this year, and the peripheral South part that has blacks isn't great either.  We'll see.

Theoretically, North Carolina should be like Virginia, except there are much, much fewer upscale whites and somehow I suspect the Republicans and Indys aren't going to do the total swing to Obama like happened in VA (times are different).  As Al would point out, fortunately for him, a decent amount of lower-income whites are Republicans, otherwise...

...he'd win by a smaller margin.
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Duke
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« Reply #20 on: April 23, 2008, 02:30:27 pm »
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Obama's big areas in NC will be the Triangle, the small black eastern NC counties, and the Triad (I guess). Charlotte will probably be lean Clinton, but I could be wrong. Luckily for Hillary, most of the upper class folks I know in Winston-Salem are Republican and I doubt they switch over to vote in the Dem primary.
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« Reply #21 on: April 23, 2008, 03:31:34 pm »
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Obama's big areas in NC will be the Triangle, the small black eastern NC counties, and the Triad (I guess). Charlotte will probably be lean Clinton, but I could be wrong. Luckily for Hillary, most of the upper class folks I know in Winston-Salem are Republican and I doubt they switch over to vote in the Dem primary.

The Triad could be a swing area if Clinton get out and talk to people around here.
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Duke
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« Reply #22 on: April 23, 2008, 03:39:57 pm »
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Obama's big areas in NC will be the Triangle, the small black eastern NC counties, and the Triad (I guess). Charlotte will probably be lean Clinton, but I could be wrong. Luckily for Hillary, most of the upper class folks I know in Winston-Salem are Republican and I doubt they switch over to vote in the Dem primary.

The Triad could be a swing area if Clinton get out and talk to people around here.

Well I know Winston Salem's district is a strong Republican one, so the Democrats in it will likely be for Clinton you would think. I don't know about Greensboro. If she does come and campaign here, it's possible the Triad could swing to her. She's good as getting undecideds, and NC seems to have a lot of them in all the polls out of the state.
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #23 on: April 23, 2008, 03:45:51 pm »
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Obama's big areas in NC will be the Triangle, the small black eastern NC counties, and the Triad (I guess). Charlotte will probably be lean Clinton, but I could be wrong. Luckily for Hillary, most of the upper class folks I know in Winston-Salem are Republican and I doubt they switch over to vote in the Dem primary.

The Triad could be a swing area if Clinton get out and talk to people around here.

Well I know Winston Salem's district is a strong Republican one, so the Democrats in it will likely be for Clinton you would think. I don't know about Greensboro. If she does come and campaign here, it's possible the Triad could swing to her. She's good as getting undecideds, and NC seems to have a lot of them in all the polls out of the state.

Yea, shen has sent Bill twice to the Triad and she only came once. If she want to win NC she has to come and talk to us. Also I can she her cutting into the Obama in the SE part of the state around the coast. She has her work cut out for her. Do I think she can do it, no she will spend alot of time in IN trying to hold Obama off there.
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Duke
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« Reply #24 on: April 23, 2008, 03:48:19 pm »
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The media has already declared NC an Obama state and put all the marbles on Indiana for Hillary. She has to win there. Winning NC, while being a bigger prize, wouldn't satisfy what the media has deemed she win. I do hope she deploys Bill here. I'd love to go see him speak.
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