GOP Presidential Primary

[YRABNNRM]

Whatever happened with this? I was doing all right!

[Reaganfan]

BULLMOOSE...MUST...HAVE...MORE!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Iowa - Easy victory for PBrunsel. All other candidates skip it. Delegates:

PBrunsel - 24
Naso - 6
Phil - 5

Wyoming - Phil's establishment connections help him big time here, as does the fiscal conservatism of NixonNow. Don also manages to pull of an upset in one county. Naso also wins a county but it's one appointing an alternate, not a delegate. Delegates (total in parantheses):

Phil - 7 (12)
Nixon - 4
htmldon - 1

New Hampshire - It's do or die for Berger here. But socially conservative groups hit him hard in 527 ads and his early lead shrinks. Phil seizes the opportunity and almost pulls off an upset but the conservative vote is split with NixonNow. htmldon narrowly falls short of 10% and loses viability. Delegates:

AndrewBerger - 6
Phil - 4 (16)
Nixon - 2 (6)

Michigan - Heavily targeted by Naso. Berger focuses all his efforts on one Detroit area district hoping to pull off a delegate there. He narrowly does. Naso wins 11 of the other districts, Phil winning 3. don narrowly meets viability.

Naso - 18 (24)
Phil - 8 (24)
htmldon - 3 (4)
AndrewBerger - 1 (7)

Totals:

Naso - 24
Phil - 24
PBrunsel - 24
AndrewBerger - 7
Nixon - 6
htmldon - 4

More to come later, plus possibly maps.

[Хahar 🤔]

Cool. Now do it for the other one.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I am disappointed I was not included as the Ron Paulite

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I am disappointed I was not included as the Ron Paulite

Because you weren't posting when it was started.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The candidates split into 3 groups, each group competing for a different state. htmldon throws all his efforts to Nevada, realizing he needs a victory there to continue. NixonNow does the same. PBrunsel and Naso square off in South Carolina, PBrunsel hoping his brand of social conservativism will carry the day, Naso hoping his national security campaign will do so. And both Berger and Phi look toward Florida for a win, setting up a conservative vs. moderate battle.

Nevada:
Don starts off with a small early lead. But this evaporates after a tough Club For Growth campaign against him. NixonNow carries the state by a comfortable margin. don drops out and endorses Berger:

NixonNow - 11 (17)
htmldon - 8 (12)
Phil - 4 (28)
Naso - 3 (27)
AndrewBerger - 3 (10)
PBrunsel - 2 (26)

South Carolina:
The race starts out close, with PBrunsel winning most of upstate while Naso wins the coastal areas and more affluent ones. But after a series of gaffes and poor debate performances, Naso begins to collapse. PBrunsel wins comfortably, taking 4/6 districts and the state's at large delegates.

PBrunsel - 20 (46)
Naso - 4 (31)

Florida:
Competition is fierce in this winner take all battle. However having dispatched don, the Club for Growth now turns toward Berger. At the end of the day, a superior GOTV operation gives Phil a 7 point victory. Berger withdraws and issues no endorsement.

Phil - 57 (85)

Maine:
In the rush-up to Super Tuesday, this contest is generally ignored. Phil uses his establishment connections and support of local leaders for a decent sized win. Delegate estimates:

Phil - 9
NixonNow - 5
Naso - 2
PBrunsel - 2

Totals before Super Tuesday:
Phil - 94
PBrunsel - 48
Naso - 33
NixonNow - 22

[Hash]

Map of BRTD's scenario thus far:

Green- Phil
Red- Berger
Yellow- Naso
Blue- PBrunsel
Dark blue- NixonNow

[Keystone Phil]

I'm liking this one. 

[Hash]

I'm liking this one. 

What's your prediction for Super Tuesday?

[Keystone Phil]

I'm liking this one. 

What's your prediction for Super Tuesday?

I'm not getting into that. 

[Хahar 🤔]

Phil, BTRD wouldn't let you win.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Super Tuesday:

Each candidate decides to target a different set of states:

Naso knows he needs a big win to stay serious. Therefore he throws most of his resources at California. He also puts focus on winner take all Missouri and Arizona as a way to help boost his delegate count. Everywhere else is largely ignored.

NixonNow focuses on all northeastern states, most of which are winner take all, including his home state which has locked up. He also targets some California districts and Illinois for a win.

PBrunsel realizes he can not win California or any of the big northeastern states, so he adopts a "Southern strategy", hoping to stay serious by sweeping the south. Missouri is his primary peripheral target. He also puts a massive effort in the WV convention and the Minnesota and ND caucuses.

Phil decides to ignore the northeast and instead eliminate his other competitors by taking on California, Missouri and a scattering of southern states. He looks toward all caucus states as well, hoping to pull off a win with establishment connections.

Alabama:
Despite a strong showing by Phil in the Montgomery and Birmingham suburbs, rural areas are swept by PBrunsel. Phil wins one district, PBrunsel wins all others, receiving over 50% in one.

PBrunsel - 27
Phil - 18

Alaska:
Phil tries to rely on establishment connections while Nixon makes an actual campaign visit. That makes the difference. Nixon pulls of a large win.

NixonNow - 12
Phil - 7
Naso - 4
PBrunsel - 3

Arizona:
A brutal fight between Naso and Phil ends with Naso taking a victory by a nose, largely attributed to him taking an especially hardline stance against illegal immigration near the end.

Naso - 50

Arkansas:
PBrunsel owns this state thoroughly. Phil and Naso are both able to break 10% though, and Phil holds PBrunsel below a majority in AR-2, thus winning 2 delegates and Naso with 1, and PBrunsel the rest.

PBrunsel - 28
Phil - 2
Naso - 1

California:
This brutal contests ends with NixonNow emerging victorious in CA-6 and nowhere else. Naso takes 9 districts, mostly hardline anti-illegal immigration ones. Phil takes everywhere else and the state while PBrunsel barely registers.

Phil - 140
Naso - 27
NixonNow - 3

Colorado:
With a campaign stop in Colorado Springs and strong evangelical-backed GOTV operation, PBrunsel pulls of a surprise win here, despite Phil being the favorite of the local party. Naso and Nixon barely register.

PBrunsel - 22
Phil - 16
Naso - 5
NixonNow - 2

Connecticut:
NixonNow wins this state in a walk.

NixonNow - 27

Delaware:
See above.

NixonNow - 18

Georgia:
A bloody battle between Phil and PBrunsel ends with a small PBrunsel victory. He also takes 7 out of 13 districts.

PBrunsel - 54
Phil - 18

Illinois:
With the delegates directly elected, Phil takes the lion's share with his superior operation, but Nixon is successful in poaching some as well. PBrunsel and Naso do decent in popular vote numbers but no delegates:

Phil - 47
Nixon - 10

Massachusetts:
A tough fight between Phil and Nixon. Phil runs very strong in some ethnic neighborhoods, but he can't stop Nixon from a win.

Nixon - 25
Phil - 15

Minnesota:
PBrunsel dominates the countryside, with strong GOP rural areas going for Phil and many suburbs. Nixon also has a strong showing in the suburbs and the few Republican parts of the Twin Cities. PBrunsel has a strong showing here as well though, and takes the state.

PBrunsel - 21
Phil - 11
NixonNow - 6

Missouri:
This closely fought three-way battle goes down to the wire. PBrunsel edges out a victory with less than a third of the vote, largely attributed to him dominating religious conservatives while Naso and Phil split the non-religious right vote, with NixonNow pulling 7%, mostly from secular Republicans.

PBrunsel - 58

Montana:
With deals set up with local leaders, Phil takes this easily.

Phil - 25

New Jersey:
NixonNow wins his home state with over 60%.

NixonNow - 52

New York:
Another easy NixonNow win.

NixonNow - 87

North Dakota:
Phil fails to establish strong establishment support here despite an effort. PBrunsel breezes to an easy victory.

PBrunsel - 12
Phil - 4
NixonNow - 4
Naso - 3

Oklahoma:
Phil's domination of the urban and suburban areas can't stop a domination of the rest of the state by PBrunsel. He wins 3/5 districts and takes the state.

PBrunsel - 32
Phil - 6

Tennessee:
Naso actually makes a campaign stop in Nashville, and pulls off an upset in TN-5. Phil wins the east and Memphis, PBrunsel the west. PBrunsel narrowly comes out on top but due to delegate allocation falls one delegate behind Phil.

Phil - 17
PBrunsel - 16
Naso - 6

Utah:
Naso is DOA in this state after an embarrassing gaffe about Mormons is caught on tape. The state also appears to heavily fear the evangelical PBrunsel. NixonNow's socially conservative credentials are not seen as strong enough after many debates, and the result is a solid victory for Phil.

Phil - 36

West Virginia:
PBrunsel has no difficult whatsoever with this convention, as the only candidate who largely targeted the state. He wins on the first ballot easily.

PBrunsel - 18

Totals:

Phil - 362 (456)
PBrunsel - 291 (339)
NixonNow - 246 (268)
Naso - 96 (135)

Having one only one state and being crushed in California, Naso announces his withdrawal the next day, and endorses Phil.

[Хahar 🤔]

Good stuff, BRTD. More, please.

[Reaganfan]

Figures BRTD would knock off me first

[Keystone Phil]

Why can't you contribute like this all the time? Great stuff.

[Hash]

Map, same key

[War on Want]

Cool timeline. Hey BRTD, when you are done with that and I am done with the Democratic Primaries do you want to help me do the General Election?