Obama: The Next McGovern?

[ChrisFromNJ]

http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=ec466d61-a900-414c-8daf-16ff27ccf85c

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He makes some very good points. Obama's coalition is starting to look alot like McGovern's.

[Verily]

Yay for believing Clinton propaganda! Or you could look at the actual polls of the general election, which apparently you aren't even making an attempt to do. They all show the same thing: the Clinton supporters and Obama supporters come around in equal numbers to the opposing candidate but Obama leads McCain among independents while Clinton gets crushed among them.

[Lief 🗽]

Er... Obama improved his numbers over Ohio in all these "non-McGovern coalition voters" demographics last night, despite being in a Democratic-only primary, the considerable efforts of the Rendell and Philly machines, and six weeks of constant media scrutiny.

[Verily]

Er... Obama improved his numbers over Ohio in all these "non-McGovern coalition voters" demographics last night, despite being in a Democratic-only primary, the considerable efforts of the Rendell and Philly machines, and six weeks of constant media scrutiny.

Also true. But Chris has bought into Clinton's campaign hook, line and sinker, apparently.

[Torie]

You have to be as old as I am, to know how silly this analogy is. McGovern wanted to gut our military in time of war, and give everybody a $1,000, and in general came across as a dreamy and dangerous loon. I voted for Nixon quite convinced that he was a felon, and a lot of other folks did as well. Obama just isn't in that category at all. Heck, he's a lawyer!  Lawyers just don't do what McGovern did. They just don't.

[Alcon]

Whenever I hear the "Obama bleeds the working-class argument" without the caveat that he improves elsewhere, I tend to tune out.

I don't know what political analysts use to explain Obama's amazing ability to lose these voters, gain no others, and still outperform Clinton in national polls.  It must be that old McGovern Magic.

That this has become the meme and not, "Obama does equally well in the General while losing voters more likely to return to the party anyway," is beyond me.  Maybe because it's too long for a TV crawl?

[Mr. Morden]

I find Jonathan Chait's response to this piece to be more convincing:

http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/04/23/on-obama-s-electability-contra-judis.aspx

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[Torie]

Well I am sure the answer is that voters hate both Democrats, and have just been too busy to get around to telling  the pollsters the good news. It is amazing just how much garbage there is on the internet isn't it? This right of center chap has concluded, for example, that Newsmax is a toxic waste dump.

[WalterMitty]

im far from an obama-maniac, but to compare him to mcgovern is ridiculous.

obama starts with a base of at least 180-200 evs. 

[zombones]

If Obama is the next McGovern, Hillary Clinton is the next "Horribly Unelectable Democrat Generic Brand"

[WalterMitty]

obama's base: 185 evs

[Lief 🗽]

Clinton's base: 173 EVs

[Alcon]

Clinton's base: 173 EVs

I think that's a little generous, actually.  I'd take WV away from her.  I'd probably give HI back.

[agcatter]

The problem is, where does he go from there.  Florida?  He's horrible there.  The rest of the South?  Gone.  Border states?  Plains states?  Mountain states?  I keep hearing Colorado's a lock for Obama.  Really?  He is an underdog in Ohio due to his weakness with working class white Democrats and he'll get killed there in the rural areas.  In Pennsylvania  he's no better than 50-50 to hold that state and that's a state that if he loses it's over.  He may have problems in Michigan for crying out loud.

McGovern?  Certainly not.  If he wins however, it's with no more than 278 electoral votes.  That's the best he'll do and that's if everything goes his way in the swing states.

He may win but I wouldn't bet on it.  Not the powerhouse he appeared to be two months ago to say the least.  Give me Obama any day as an opponent over Hillary.

[Lief 🗽]

That's what I had it at initially, but then I looked at the site's polling, and she's doing better in West Virginia than Hawai'i. It's a net change of only 1 EV though.

[WalterMitty]

clinton's base is nearly the same as obama's.

unless you believe that people in the pacific northwest and minnesota will vote for mccain if obama isnt the nominee. (i dont)

[Verily]

The problem is, where does he go from there.  Florida?  He's horrible there.  The rest of the South?  Gone.  Border states?  Plains states?  Mountain states?  I keep hearing Colorado's a lock for Obama.  Really?  He is an underdog in Ohio due to his weakness with working class white Democrats and he'll get killed there in the rural areas.  In Pennsylvania  he's no better than 50-50 to hold that state and that's a state that if he loses it's over.  He may have problems in Michigan for crying out loud.

McGovern?  Certainly not.  If he wins however, it's with no more than 278 electoral votes.  That's the best he'll do and that's if everything goes his way in the swing states.

He may win but I wouldn't bet on it.  Not the powerhouse he appeared to be two months ago to say the least.  Give me Obama any day as an opponent over Hillary.

Michigan? Well, certainly the Democrats shouldn't be risking Clinton, then. Rasmussen's poll had Obama ahead outside of the margin of error -- and Clinton behind outside of it. Pennsylvania? Rasmussen's poll (admittedly conducted after the primary) has Obama ahead by 11 points and Clinton ahead by 12. A one-point difference? Yes, big change there, only Clinton can win PA, Obama is doomed.

The fact is, you're looking at numbers in the middle of a primary battle on one side. The Democratic numbers will go up -- on both sides, and considerably -- when the primary ends. And yet McCain is essentially tied with Obama in EVs. What does that say about McCain!? (He does lead Clinton, however, the apparent darling of all voters ever who has a stellar 43% approval rating.)

[Sam Spade]

There is going to be no McGovern result for the Republicans this year.  In fact, there will be no Dukakis result this year, either, unless Obama starts running a McGovern-like campaign.

Besides, as Torie says, McGovern was just really such a horrible candidate - there is no comparison.  Obama, at his worst, would be more like Dukakis (excluding the black stay-at-home thing) or Stevenson, not in terms of result, but in terms of coalition.  And Stevenson was running in a year for the home team that was similar to what McCain will be running in this year.

If I were a Democrat, I would be hoping that Obama doesn't continue his downward spiral in campaigning ability he's shown over the past couple of months.  That would remind me of another nominee not too long ago.

[agcatter]

It is pretty much the same base.  The difference is Clinton has a shot at Florida and would be the clear favorite in Ohio and Pennsylvania.  The comparison of each's base tells you only so much.

[Alcon]

It is pretty much the same base.  The difference is Clinton has a shot at Florida and would be the clear favorite in Ohio and Pennsylvania.  The comparison of each's base tells you only so much.

The idea that Obama and Clinton's theoretical bases in the General would be remarkably different is pretty silly.

Again, Obama is not (relative to Clinton) losing the working-class vote while gaining nothing, and then out-polling Clinton in the General, in PV and EV.  It's not possible.

[ChrisFromNJ]

clinton's base is nearly the same as obama's.

unless you believe that people in the pacific northwest and minnesota will vote for mccain if obama isnt the nominee. (i dont)

I think Hillary's weakness in the Pacific Northwest is a little overstated. Does anybody really expect her to not carry Washington?

[agcatter]

No, Obama's not "doomed".  i'm just saying his max is 278 electors.  I don't buy into the Obama is going to carry Virginia, NC, Missouri madness that was floating around this board a month ago and that's the only way he expands beyond 278.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If I were a Democrat, I would be hoping that Obama doesn't continue his downward spiral in campaigning ability he's shown over the past couple of months.  That would remind me of another nominee not too long ago.

You have a valid point here, but I have to say that if that's your big worry, Hillary isn't exactly the answer considering her recent performance either.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Again, Obama is not (relative to Clinton) losing the working-class vote while gaining nothing, and then out-polling Clinton in the General, in PV and EV.  It's not possible.

Where is Obama outpolling Clinton in the general?

[WalterMitty]

mccain's base=178 evs