Obama: The Next McGovern?

[Nutmeg]

The Democratic Party will be in civil war, regardless of who the Democrats nominate. It's time for the Obamites to start looking at both sides of the issue. Obama's entire pledged delegate lead is based on running up high margins of victory in 5% turnout caucuses. Both candidates have more than enough reasons why they deserve the nomination. Hillary isn't stealing anything if she wins the nomination. Obama will not reach the 2024 pledged delegate threshold.

More Americans have voted for Obama than Clinton, so I'm not sure what your point on the caucus/primary distinction is.  Obama might have gotten smaller margins had the same states had primaries rather than caucuses, running up Obama's numbers, but so too was turnout, as you say, lower for caucuses in several states than it might have been with a primary, depressing Obama's numbers.  Kind of seems like a wash.

[JSojourner]

Aside from DWTL's nonsense, this has been one of the best threads I have read in awhile.  I've actually STUDIED this one.  Mord, Torie, BRTD, Verily -- all of you guys -- youses smart.

Good stuff!

What are you running for? 

Supreme Evil Dictactor for Life

[Robespierre's Jaw]

They are right that Obama's coalition of support is similar to McGovern's back in 1972. As we know both Obama's and McGovern's covered a vast range of voter backgrounds: the young, the old etc.

However McGovern did manage to capture some of the blue collar vote, which helped him win crucial primaries (such as the Wisconsin Primary nearly 36 years ago to the date) over HHH, Wallace and Muskie (well his campaign was f**ked from Florida onwards).

If Obama somehow manage to capture the support of blue collar workers then his primary campaign would easily resemble McGovern's in 1972.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Obama, at his worst, would be more like Dukakis (excluding the black stay-at-home thing) or Stevenson, not in terms of result, but in terms of coalition.  And Stevenson was running in a year for the home team that was similar to what McCain will be running in this year.

^^^

Stevenson especially.

[Michael Z]

Yay for believing Clinton propaganda!

Indeed.

I kinda expected them to pull the McGovern line at some point. Hey, Obama's kinda liberal, has a huge grassroots following... and so did McGovern! Yeah! The two are, like, totally the same.

Ugh.

Can we all get back to "Al Gore's like so totally gonna get the nomination at the convention" please?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Obama propaganda is the only correct one people.
"It doesn't matter if he's unattractive to important swing voters... they'll come over when they see McCain is just Bush dipped in natron... won't they?"

But seriously Obama is most certainly not in any position like McGovern. In 1972 Nixon was like a virus spreading across the country, McGovern survived in the bastions least vulnerable to infection. Obama has the potential to be a virus too, it just depends how well certain people have been inocculated.

.... wow that went on a little further than I expected.

[Erc]

Er... Obama improved his numbers over Ohio in all these "non-McGovern coalition voters" demographics last night, despite being in a Democratic-only primary, the considerable efforts of the Rendell and Philly machines, and six weeks of constant media scrutiny.

...and despite campaigning non-stop in the state for six weeks and outspending Hillary by some ridiculous margin?

We can go all day like this.