CNN: McCain Dead Even With Obama Or Clinton. Go Figure.

[Lincoln Republican]

Country heading into recession.

Unpopular war in Iraq.

Incumbent Republican President of 8 years at almost record low approvals.

McCain supports Iraq war.

McCain would be the oldest President taking office at 72.

In spite of all this, CNN reports, April 25, the following polling numbers

Head to head match ups

Obama         45%
McCain         45%

Clinton         46%
McCain         46%

Go figure.

McCain has to be considered to have at least a 50/50 chance of winning the White House.

Please discuss.

[True Democrat]

I believe there's a section entitled Presidential General Election Polls.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Polls, schmoles. Until we reach the point when the electorate wakes up (so after conventiontime) they don't matter all that much. McCain "can" win, yes. McCain "might" get hit by a landslide. We can but wait.

Edit: Mike gets it but deleted his post.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It can't have anything to do with Clinton's divisive campaign or the total joke media.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Obviously the total joke media is one reason why people tend to wake up so late these days

[Alcon]

I'd guess the Democrats have a bit of an invisible lead right now stemming from lingering effects from a post-candidacy boost.  Most of those will probably involve staunch "poll protesters" backing down.  It should probably be a few points.  I'd wager it would be a bit more for Obama than it would be for Clinton.

...Not that, if it goes the way Clinton needs it to go, she wouldn't probably lose almost as many Obama supporters totally as that boost would be worth.  At least for a while.

And, hey, John McCain is a good candidate.

[Torie]

I'd guess the Democrats have a bit of an invisible lead right now stemming from lingering effects from a post-candidacy boost.  Most of those will probably involve staunch "poll protesters" backing down.  It should probably be a few points.  I'd wager it would be a bit more for Obama than it would be for Clinton.

...Not that, if it goes the way Clinton needs it to go, she wouldn't probably lose almost as many Obama supporters totally as that boost would be worth.  At least for a while.

And, hey, John McCain is a good candidate.

Try as I might, I find your comment to be sufficiently Delphic as to obscure its real meaning to my mind.

[Alcon]

I'd guess the Democrats have a bit of an invisible lead right now stemming from lingering effects from a post-candidacy boost.  Most of those will probably involve staunch "poll protesters" backing down.  It should probably be a few points.  I'd wager it would be a bit more for Obama than it would be for Clinton.

...Not that, if it goes the way Clinton needs it to go, she wouldn't probably lose almost as many Obama supporters totally as that boost would be worth.  At least for a while.

And, hey, John McCain is a good candidate.

Try as I might, I find your comment to be sufficiently Delphic as to obscure its real meaning to my mind.

Re-reading that post, it's totally incoherent.  Let's try again!

I'd guess that the tie involves a few "phantom" McCain votes and undecideds.  I imagine that, once a candidate is decided, a lot of the vehement Clinton and Obama supporters will come home to roost for the other.  I think this will help Obama more than it would Clinton, because he tends to lose more Democrats than Clinton does.  I'd imagine it's only going to be a few points, but it's worth considering.

Then I said something pointless about Clinton having to thrash around so much to get the nomination that she'd probably be further weakened.  I don't see much of a boost if she has to win the nomination through a bloody floor fight.

At the end there was something ridiculous about John McCain not being George Bush, but I'm afraid I don't recall details.  Not important.

Clearer? 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

p

[specific_name]

Someone just used the word delphic properly, you have made me smile. I've been reminded of a good synonym for obscure/ambiguous/etc. Ironically this thread title made me think McCain had suddenly died. All I saw was "CNN: McCain Dead," I was shocked for a moment.

[Torie]

Indeed, Alcon, clear as a bell now. There will be a return to the roost phenomenon, but I am not persuaded that a larger incidence of flying from the coop now, means a larger return later, to make the number who don't return an absolute one akin to the speed  of light (well the speed was once absolute until the relativists got a hold of it; it was absolute anyway in the salad days). In short, more Dems in the end might find Obama more of a space alien than Mrs. Clinton.

[Хahar 🤔]

Someone just used the word delphic properly, you have made me smile. I've been reminded of a good synonym for obscure/ambiguous/etc. Ironically this thread title made me think McCain had suddenly died. All I saw was "CNN: McCain Dead," I was shocked for a moment.

I'm glad I'm not the only one to whom that happens.

[Reluctant Republican]

I actually think McCain should be doing better, given all the vile the Dems are spewing at each other now. If he can only remain even with the Democrats at perhaps their lowest point, how can he hope to win on election day, when we will see a more unified Democratic party?

Despite this, I still believe McCain has a good shot. But I do wish McCain was up more in the polls, so we'd have a bit of a safety net that we could shed after the Democrats pick their ticket. Hopefully Rasmussen has him up by seven again tommorow, ha ha.

[Ban my account ffs!]

I read the topic title:

"CNN:  McCain dead, even with Obama and Clinton.  Go Figure"  It's my lysdexia I think.

[Nutmeg]

I actually think McCain should be doing better, given all the vile the Dems are spewing at each other now. If he can only remain even with the Democrats at perhaps their lowest point, how can he hope to win on election day, when we will see a more unified Democratic party?

Despite this, I still believe McCain has a good shot.

That's what I'd think.

Although the popular vote looks more favorable for Obama than does the Electoral College math, at this point.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I actually think McCain should be doing better, given all the vile the Dems are spewing at each other now. If he can only remain even with the Democrats at perhaps their lowest point, how can he hope to win on election day, when we will see a more unified Democratic party?

Despite this, I still believe McCain has a good shot.

That's what I'd think.

Although the popular vote looks more favorable for Obama than does the Electoral College math, at this point.

This has always been my concern, Obama thumps McCain the Dem strongholds - competes in non-traditional states, but not enough to actually win them.

[Michael Z]

Edit: Mike gets it but deleted his post.

Eheh, it's because I kinda thought I was stating the obvious, but it looks like it doesn't seem like that to a lot of people. So yeah, polls mean sh**t at this stage.

[Sam Spade]

Look, it is likely that whoever the Democratic candidate is will receive some (at least) consolidation of Democratic ranks behind the standard-bearer once the race is over and should take a lead because of it.

At some point, however, Republicans are going to start returning (in some way, shape or form) to the voting samples - probably after the convention.  So will some Democrats too, but I suspect it's less than in other years (most notably 2000), just because of present energy.

The question is:  What will occur once the waves of uninterested voters start paying attention.  That's the point Al is getting at - and we really don't know.