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Author Topic: Bush +12 in IN  (Read 8237 times)
classical liberal
RightWingNut
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« on: August 25, 2004, 11:24:31 am »
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Double-digit lead not surprising, but a bit of a come down from the +19 MRI put out last month.

link:

http://www.imaweb.com/news_pdfs/Bellwether%20Polling%20Results%20Aug%202004%20pdf.pdf
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Blue Rectangle
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« Reply #1 on: August 25, 2004, 11:48:27 am »
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Definitely bad news for Bush.  The state is clearly trending Democratic.  If the trend holds, Bush will lose another 7 points in each of the next two months and Kerry will take the state by 2% Wink
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« Reply #2 on: August 25, 2004, 12:14:39 pm »
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IN isn't in play.  If IN goes Kerry, Bush will have long since lost the election.
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« Reply #3 on: August 25, 2004, 01:13:54 pm »
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IN isn't in play.  If IN goes Kerry, Bush will have long since lost the election.

Sarcasm.

The following is also sarcasm:

I think that all voters from Bush, Probably to Kerry, Definitly will go Kerry, giving him the win 53%-47% Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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« Reply #4 on: August 26, 2004, 12:53:35 pm »
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I can't see Indiana going Democrat unless Evan Bayh was the party nominee.

Dave
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« Reply #5 on: August 26, 2004, 01:34:17 pm »
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This poll is interesting for one reason:

Indiana's polls close at 6pm.  If Kerry is within 10 points of Bush in the exit poll, the state will not immediately be called for Bush.  This would be a very early signal of a Kerry victory, and seems possible given this poll.
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« Reply #6 on: August 26, 2004, 01:40:58 pm »
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Prediction: The state will be called immediately for Bush. Bush by 12-14.
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classical liberal
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« Reply #7 on: August 26, 2004, 02:16:37 pm »
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If IN is not called until MT/TX/everything in between, then Kerry has probably carried OH and MO, maybe AR as well.  If IN is called with IL, then Bush probably took OH and AR with MO up in th air.
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"As for me, I'd rather live in a free country than a 'fair' one." --David Harsanyi

"What passes for optimism is most often the effect of an intellectual error." --Raymond Claud Ferdinan Aron

"The world is a rough and nasty place. Absent a change in human nature, it will remain so." --Robert M. Gates
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« Reply #8 on: August 26, 2004, 02:17:18 pm »
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This poll is interesting for one reason:

Indiana's polls close at 6pm.  If Kerry is within 10 points of Bush in the exit poll, the state will not immediately be called for Bush.  This would be a very early signal of a Kerry victory, and seems possible given this poll.

Part of IN is in Central time.
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classical liberal
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« Reply #9 on: August 26, 2004, 02:39:03 pm »
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This poll is interesting for one reason:

Indiana's polls close at 6pm.  If Kerry is within 10 points of Bush in the exit poll, the state will not immediately be called for Bush.  This would be a very early signal of a Kerry victory, and seems possible given this poll.

Part of IN is in Central time.


The part that has a Dem Congressman.
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"As for me, I'd rather live in a free country than a 'fair' one." --David Harsanyi

"What passes for optimism is most often the effect of an intellectual error." --Raymond Claud Ferdinan Aron

"The world is a rough and nasty place. Absent a change in human nature, it will remain so." --Robert M. Gates
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« Reply #10 on: August 26, 2004, 02:39:52 pm »
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That is true, depending on daylights savings time.  Use to drive me nuts remembering that when my (now ex) g/f was going to school in IN.
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"Anybody who doesn't appreciate what America has done and President Bush, let them go to hell." - Betty Dawisha, Iraqi vote
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StatesRights
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« Reply #11 on: August 26, 2004, 03:19:18 pm »
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MODU,

Nice house and great video! You are in NOVA, correct?
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Horus
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« Reply #12 on: August 26, 2004, 03:38:33 pm »
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I think the state is trending Dem, but we won't see it vote Dem Nationally until at least 2020 and probably much later.
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« Reply #13 on: August 26, 2004, 03:39:11 pm »
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I think the state is trending Dem, but we won't see it vote Dem Nationally until at least 2020 and probably much later.

And then only if the trend continues.  Trends have a nasty habit of changing at the most unexpected times.
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ilikeverin
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« Reply #14 on: August 26, 2004, 03:39:29 pm »
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I think the state is trending Dem, but we won't see it vote Dem Nationally until at least 2020 and probably much later.

I say 2028 when I run for VP Cool Wink
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StatesRights
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« Reply #15 on: August 26, 2004, 03:41:38 pm »
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Trends looking 20 years into the future are not in any ways reliable.
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ATFFL
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« Reply #16 on: August 26, 2004, 03:44:49 pm »
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I think the state is trending Dem, but we won't see it vote Dem Nationally until at least 2020 and probably much later.

And then only if the trend continues.  Trends have a nasty habit of changing at the most unexpected times.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #17 on: August 26, 2004, 03:47:19 pm »
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Up until 1960 no one ever would have believed the deep south would be a Republican stronghold.
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MODU
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« Reply #18 on: August 26, 2004, 04:10:16 pm »
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MODU,

Nice house and great video! You are in NOVA, correct?

Yuppers.  One of many beltway bandits.  Smiley
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"Anybody who doesn't appreciate what America has done and President Bush, let them go to hell." - Betty Dawisha, Iraqi vote
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« Reply #19 on: August 26, 2004, 04:11:35 pm »
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I think the state is trending Dem, but we won't see it vote Dem Nationally until at least 2020 and probably much later.

I say 2028 when I run for VP Cool Wink

If you do, I'll post your campaign sign in my yard, even if I am going to vote for your opposition.  Smiley
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"Anybody who doesn't appreciate what America has done and President Bush, let them go to hell." - Betty Dawisha, Iraqi vote
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StatesRights
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« Reply #20 on: August 26, 2004, 04:16:05 pm »
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MODU,

Nice house and great video! You are in NOVA, correct?

Yuppers.  One of many beltway bandits.  Smiley

My wife is from Manassas. Of course when she went there it was still a very southern area...sadly...not to much anymore. I spent two hours one time just finding parking for the metro!!! Ridiculous.
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MODU
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« Reply #21 on: August 26, 2004, 04:24:01 pm »
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hahaha . . . well, I currently live on the fringe of Manassas, but have been eyeing the Northern Stafford area lately as a possible investment.  More land, less house . . . lower payment.  hahaha . . . and with the Metro area extending past Fredericksburg now, it will surely go up in price over the next decade.
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"Anybody who doesn't appreciate what America has done and President Bush, let them go to hell." - Betty Dawisha, Iraqi vote
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StatesRights
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« Reply #22 on: August 26, 2004, 04:25:59 pm »
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hahaha . . . well, I currently live on the fringe of Manassas, but have been eyeing the Northern Stafford area lately as a possible investment.  More land, less house . . . lower payment.  hahaha . . . and with the Metro area extending past Fredericksburg now, it will surely go up in price over the next decade.

They haven't built rail lines down there yet have they? My wifes step grandparents live in very rural Fredricksburg. Town called Goldvein.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #23 on: August 26, 2004, 04:57:12 pm »
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This poll is interesting for one reason:

Indiana's polls close at 6pm.  If Kerry is within 10 points of Bush in the exit poll, the state will not immediately be called for Bush.  This would be a very early signal of a Kerry victory, and seems possible given this poll.

Part of IN is in Central time.


OK, but I always remember them calling Indiana immediately at 6pm, even in 1996.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #24 on: August 26, 2004, 04:58:28 pm »
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President Forever gives the order in which states are called.
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