george mcgovern in southwest va.

[WalterMitty]

why did so many counties 'trend' towards mcgovern in sw va?

my only guess is that wallace really hurt humphrey's performance in that area in 68.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's more a comment on quite how violent the swings were elsewhere.

[WalterMitty]

not only did montgomery county va trend democrat in 72...it also swung democrat.

i know it is home to va tech and everything...but still.

[Nym90]

not only did montgomery county va trend democrat in 72...it also swung democrat.

i know it is home to va tech and everything...but still.

McGovern did well in university towns nationwide (well at least relatively well considering how badly he lost). Wars will tend to do that--see also how well Kerry did in uni towns in 2004.

And Al is right....there just happened to be a few more yellow dog Dems here than most elsewhere. Doesn't mean McGovern did well.

[WalterMitty]

well is a relative term, nym.

some of this is hard to explain though.

dickenson county va:
1968: even with the national democratic result
1972: dem +4.5

craig county va:
1968: -7.7
1972: -2.8

pulaski county va:
1968: -13.4
1972: -11.3

floyd county va:
1968: -25.7
1972: -15.7

giles county va:
1968: -6.7
1972: -4.5

[Nym90]

Well, like I said, could just be there is a larger rock solid Dem base there. In elections with large national swings, some areas will inevitably swing more than others not because of a candidate having particularly higher or lower appeal but just due to the fact that some counties have larger bases (sometimes for both parties) and fewer swing voters while some have more swing voters and smaller bases.

But if anyone has any other insight as to why McGovern would do better here than Humphrey versus his national showing, feel free to share. My guess would be simply that you have a lot of dyed in the wool Dems who had never voted GOP since the Civil War and weren't about to start now, enough such that McGovern's floor was higher than elsewhere.

Also possibly given the working class nature of the area, Wallace may have taken votes disproportionately from Humphrey here in 1968, and some of them may have come back to the Dems.

[they don't love you like i love you]

McGovern actually won a county in Minnesota Humphrey lost! (Stevens). And yes, there is a university there.

He also relatively did better in my old home county of Blue Earth and actually did better than Kennedy in 1960 (also running against Nixon.) Probably a sign of how strong anti-Vietnam sentiment was there. He also won Mower which voted for Nixon in 1960.

Some of those counties McGovern won in Minnesota I find amazing. I mean, Nobles! Stearns!

[nclib]

not only did montgomery county va trend democrat in 72...it also swung democrat.

i know it is home to va tech and everything...but still.

Didn't 18-20 year-olds gain the right to vote between 1968 and 1972? Did any other university counties swing Democrat in 1972?

[Nym90]

not only did montgomery county va trend democrat in 72...it also swung democrat.

i know it is home to va tech and everything...but still.

Didn't 18-20 year-olds gain the right to vote between 1968 and 1972? Did any other university counties swing Democrat in 1972?

Yes, they did. Washtenaw, MI is one other county that flipped from Nixon to McGovern (home of the U of Michigan). In fact, it then flipped to Ford in 1976 due in large part to him being an alumnus, then back to Carter in 1980. Certainly a very weird string of results there.