IN PrimD: Survey USA: Clinton Maintains 9 point lead in IN

[Wiz in Wis]

New Poll: Indiana President by Survey USA on 2008-04-27

Summary:

Clinton:	52%
Obama:	43%
Other:	3%
Undecided:	2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Umengus]

operation chaos!!

[Alcon]

I'm not sure whether to compare this to SUSA's last "typical" poll (Clinton +16) or the poll they did for the Hugh Downs Center inbetween these two (Obama +5).  Either the Hugh Downs Center poll's methodology was atypical, or SUSA is going all PPP-in-Pennsylvania on us.

My inclination is that the Hugh Downs poll was different, and to compare this to Clinton's +16 - which means SUSA is kind of on their lonesome in trending and initial results, but at least it's a feasible movement.

[Sam Spade]

I'm not sure whether to compare this to SUSA's last "typical" poll (Clinton +16) or the poll they did for the Hugh Downs Center inbetween these two (Obama +5).  Either the Hugh Downs Center poll's methodology was atypical, or SUSA is going all PPP-in-Pennsylvania on us.

My inclination is that the Hugh Downs poll was different, and to compare this to Clinton's +16 - which means SUSA is kind of on their lonesome in trending and initial results, but at least it's a feasible movement.

I agree with the first part of your analysis and disagree on the second part.

[Alcon]

I agree with the first part of your analysis and disagree on the second part.

Why is that?

I'm looking at the Hugh Downs write-up and it looks like a different weighting schematic.  That is, the Downs Center chose the methodology there while SUSA conducted the poll calls themselves.  I may be mis-remembering SUSA's methodology, but I don't think I am.

And SUSA is generally not known for its wild swings like that...

[Tender Branson]

Crosstabs:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=fbedb864-ec9d-47ab-87f2-c41203a87585&q=45558

It could end up like MO. SurveyUSA showing Clinton 10 points ahead of Obama and even the early returns favored her 60-40, then Obama pulled ahead by winning a few urban areas. Looking at the crosstabs, I can´t believe Clinton will get 16% of Blacks, with 10% of them undecided. IN Blacks must be special then. Also, why should Clinton be tied with Obama among Independents ? Hard to believe. Nonetheless, everything from a 3% Obama victory to a 10% Clinton win is possible.

[Mr.Phips]

This is very concerning for Obama.  This is a state that he has to win to get Hillary out of the race and keep this from going to the convention.  It now looks as if it will be very difficult for him to win here.  He is going to have to pull a last minute bombshell on Hillary on Friday along the lines of what she did to him with the red phone ad if he wants to win this one. 

[agcatter]

I look for Hillary to win by 5 or 6 and then move on to West Virginia the next week where it will really be ugly for Obama.

[Reaganfan]

operation chaos!!

I laugh everytime I hear that. Good ole' Rush.

[Sbane]

Is it just me or does the percentage of blacks seem kind of low. Dont Indiana blacks make up a larger percentage overall in the population than indicated in this poll. Plus considering how  republican this state is I would not be surprised if the black percentage was close to about 16-18%.

[Tender Branson]

Is it just me or does the percentage of blacks seem kind of low. Dont Indiana blacks make up a larger percentage overall in the population than indicated in this poll. Plus considering how  republican this state is I would not be surprised if the black percentage was close to about 16-18%.

I think it will be 12-15% of the vote. In Indiana about 9% of the population is African-American, compared with 11% in PA and 12% in OH. According to exit polls, about 15% of PA primary voters were African-Americans, as well as 18% in OH. If the actual primary composition of IN is 84% White, 14% Black and 2% Latino/Asian, Obama needs to win at least 43.5% of the White vote and needs to get 50% of the Latino/Asian vote, while keeping his 90% share among Blacks.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

On the one hand, these numbers look about what I'd expect.

On the other hand SUSA has been rather erratic lately and not all that trustworthy.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Another thing to note: If the regional breakdown is correct (and the usual caveat about subsamples applies), Hillary's looking at around only a 3-5 net delegate gain.

[Sbane]

Another thing to note: If the regional breakdown is correct (and the usual caveat about subsamples applies), Hillary's looking at around only a 3-5 net delegate gain.

Yeah but this whole race has become about popular votes because the media needs to make this into a close race. If Obama keeps it within 5 and wins NC with about 10-15, I think he will have a good case for the superdelegates.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Another thing to note: If the regional breakdown is correct (and the usual caveat about subsamples applies), Hillary's looking at around only a 3-5 net delegate gain.

Yeah but this whole race has become about popular votes because the media needs to make this into a close race. If Obama keeps it within 5 and wins NC with about 10-15, I think he will have a good case for the superdelegates.

He already has a good enough case for the superdelegates. As in, better than Hillary's. And please note, Hillary doesn't need a majority of superdelegates, or even a majority of remaining superdelegates, but rather 2/3 of remaining superdelegates. Obama isn't the one here who needs a really really persuasive case.

[Democratic Hawk]

I'm not confident for Obama in IN, even if general election polling has suggested he'd run stronger against McCain, relative to Clinton, in November. It's moot, however, I don't see IN being anything other than reliably Republican in November

Dave