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Author Topic: NC Prim D: Insider Advantage: Clinton now leads Obama by 2  (Read 3745 times)
Duke
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« on: April 30, 2008, 08:52:49 pm »
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Just shown on Foxnews. I don't believe it's online yet.

Clinton 44%
Obama 42%
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« Reply #1 on: April 30, 2008, 08:56:29 pm »
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Last poll 4/14

Clinton 44% (+8)
Obama 42% (-9)
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ChrisFromNJ
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« Reply #2 on: April 30, 2008, 08:58:10 pm »
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Was a rep from Insider Advantage on Faux News? I don't watch the channel, so I wouldn't know.
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #3 on: April 30, 2008, 08:58:57 pm »
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be these the people who hath undersampled blacks. quare.
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"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
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« Reply #4 on: April 30, 2008, 09:00:02 pm »
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LOL. Yeah that's a believable swing. Most likely a 1-in-20 from an already dubious poster.
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ChrisFromNJ
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« Reply #5 on: April 30, 2008, 09:02:42 pm »
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http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_430_370.aspx
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« Reply #6 on: April 30, 2008, 09:04:51 pm »
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Sad to see the Insider Advantage guy perpetuating the myth that most of North Carolina's white voters are in the Research Triangle.
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« Reply #7 on: April 30, 2008, 09:06:40 pm »
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Crosstabs:

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/downloads/uploaded/43_InsiderAdvantage_Majority_Opinion_NC_Dem_Poll_(4-30-08).pdf

Seems like they are undersampling the black electorate. Blacks only consist of 25% of the electorate in this survey.
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« Reply #8 on: April 30, 2008, 09:07:20 pm »
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Crosstabs:

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/downloads/uploaded/43_InsiderAdvantage_Majority_Opinion_NC_Dem_Poll_(4-30-08).pdf

Seems like they are undersampling the black electorate. Blacks only consist of 25% of the electorate in this survey.

IA is notorious for this in the south. See Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia.
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agcatter
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« Reply #9 on: April 30, 2008, 09:12:33 pm »
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Hillary won't win NC, however recent polling indicates it might not be the 15 pt. blowout most expected a week ago.  In fact, that looks doubtful at present.

9 or 10 points in the end I'd predict.
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« Reply #10 on: April 30, 2008, 09:17:12 pm »
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Er... IA said Obama would win Alabama by 2 points. He won by 15.

I still expect Obama to crush Clinton by double digits.
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« Reply #11 on: April 30, 2008, 09:22:32 pm »
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Obama wins NC by 10 at most.

Indiana is Clinton's by 8.

They then move on to West Va where it it Clinton by between 35 and 40.

Oregon to Obama by 8.

Clinton wins Kentucky by 32.

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« Reply #12 on: April 30, 2008, 09:35:10 pm »
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Take a look at the polls in the states stretching from Mississippi to Virginia.

Obama underpolls in the south. He even did in Tennessee. And Obama can only win by 10 tops? That would require the electorate to be around only 40% black.
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« Reply #13 on: April 30, 2008, 09:58:25 pm »
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Take a look at the polls in the states stretching from Mississippi to Virginia.

Obama underpolls in the south. He even did in Tennessee. And Obama can only win by 10 tops? That would require the electorate to be around only 40% black.

The black vote in the Virginia primary was 3/4 of its share of Kerry's vote in 2004.  In North Carolina, that difference would make for way under 40% black.
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agcatter
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« Reply #14 on: April 30, 2008, 10:02:44 pm »
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I thought an Obama win of 10 was a pretty good showing myself.

I guess I just don't have the unlimited faith in Barack's polling power that Obama backers seem to have.  In fact, since February in the Wisconsin Primary, I haven't been overwhelmed by his vote getting abilities in any of primary states - unless you count Mississippi where the Democratic electorate was 50% black.  I mean, for a guy outspending his opponent 3 to 1 it hasn't been all that hot actually.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #15 on: April 30, 2008, 10:06:19 pm »
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Take a look at the polls in the states stretching from Mississippi to Virginia.

Obama underpolls in the south. He even did in Tennessee. And Obama can only win by 10 tops? That would require the electorate to be around only 40% black.

The black vote in the Virginia primary was 3/4 of its share of Kerry's vote in 2004.  In North Carolina, that difference would make for way under 40% black.

Whites in VA do not equal whites in NC.

Still, this poll is garbage.  And I heard the comment about North Carolina whites tending to be upper-income from this guy.  Which proves he knows nothing.
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« Reply #16 on: April 30, 2008, 10:08:46 pm »
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Whites in VA do not equal whites in NC.

I don't know how saying, "if the relative black vote in Virginia was 3/4 of Kerry's base, it's realistic that it could be 3/4 or less in North Carolina," implies that they are the same or comments on to their similarities/differences in any way.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #17 on: April 30, 2008, 10:16:26 pm »
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Whites in VA do not equal whites in NC.

I don't know how saying, "if the relative black vote in Virginia was 3/4 of Kerry's base, it's realistic that it could be 3/4 or less in North Carolina," implies that they are the same or comments on to their similarities/differences in any way.

I understand, but that wasn't the tenor of the comment.  I suspect 40% is the ceiling, frankly, and I still believe it will be more in the 33%-35% range.

Still, I believe that NC should fundamentally be a 10%-15% win for Obama, in the same way that Indiana should be a 5%-10% win for Clinton.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #18 on: April 30, 2008, 10:18:40 pm »
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This is one of the worst polls I have ever seen.  There is no way that the black vote will only be 25% of the total vote when it was 26% in the general in 2004.  What is even more unbelievable is that Barack Obama would only get 65% of the black vote when he got 92% in PA. 
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« Reply #19 on: April 30, 2008, 10:31:33 pm »
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Good. Hopefully this trash poll will help to lower expectaions.
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As expected the wop won.

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« Reply #20 on: April 30, 2008, 10:33:42 pm »
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This is one of the worst polls I have ever seen.  There is no way that the black vote will only be 25% of the total vote when it was 26% in the general in 2004.

LOL. The poll has blacks as making up LESS than their share of the TOTAL electorate?

TRASH.
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agcatter
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« Reply #21 on: April 30, 2008, 10:34:26 pm »
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Look, we all know the demographics of the Democratic vote in NC and thus it is impossible for Hillary to win the state.  He'll get 90% of a block of probably 35% of the total vote that will be black.  Just do the math.  Has Hillary gained ground among whites?  I think any objective pundit looking at the recent polling would say absolutey that she has.  She'll probably get as high as the low 60s max but we can all do math and know even that won't be near enough.

The scary thing for Democrats has been his performance among whites since Wisconsin.  It's the reason he'll lose Indiana or any other primary state east of the Mississippi with less than 15% of the vote that is black.  He's struggled with whites since Wisconsin.  He's not even polling like he once was with white independents and that was part of his early primary coalition.  This isn't a good trend for a candidate who has had the advantage of unlimited political funding in state after state.
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RJEvans
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« Reply #22 on: April 30, 2008, 10:34:58 pm »
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I seriously doubt this poll, but I would like to point out to everyone, the demo share from the poll showing Obama +15 is almost identical with this poll showing Clinton +2. The only difference is whites go to Clinton is a greater share and some African-Americans have moved to Clinton. This could either be a fluke or it shows something is happening in NC that we don't fully understand.
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« Reply #23 on: April 30, 2008, 10:43:16 pm »
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This is one of the worst polls I have ever seen.  There is no way that the black vote will only be 25% of the total vote when it was 26% in the general in 2004.

LOL. The poll has blacks as making up LESS than their share of the TOTAL electorate?

TRASH.

Honestly, as soon as I  saw the croosstabs I burst into a fit of laughter. I'm probably overtired but still...
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As expected the wop won.

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« Reply #24 on: April 30, 2008, 10:47:47 pm »
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Look, we all know the demographics of the Democratic vote in NC and thus it is impossible for Hillary to win the state.  He'll get 90% of a block of probably 35% of the total vote that will be black.  Just do the math.  Has Hillary gained ground among whites?  I think any objective pundit looking at the recent polling would say absolutey that she has.  She'll probably get as high as the low 60s max but we can all do math and know even that won't be near enough.

The scary thing for Democrats has been his performance among whites since Wisconsin.  It's the reason he'll lose Indiana or any other primary state east of the Mississippi with less than 15% of the vote that is black.  He's struggled with whites since Wisconsin.  He's not even polling like he once was with white independents and that was part of his early primary coalition.  This isn't a good trend for a candidate who has had the advantage of unlimited political funding in state after state.

Since Wisconsin we've had the following primary states:

-Texas
-Ohio
-Rhode Island
-Vermont
-Mississippi
-Pennsylvania

Now it's not difficult to see that whites in those states aren't exactly as favorable to Obama as whites in Wisconsin or many of the other states before it, except Vermont which Obama won in a walk. I've yet to see any actual evidence that the white vote has been drifting from Obama rather than just that the nature of the states up has changed.
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