NC Prim D: Insider Advantage: Clinton now leads Obama by 2

[Sam Spade]

Take a look at the polls in the states stretching from Mississippi to Virginia.

Obama underpolls in the south. He even did in Tennessee. And Obama can only win by 10 tops? That would require the electorate to be around only 40% black.

The black vote in the Virginia primary was 3/4 of its share of Kerry's vote in 2004.  In North Carolina, that difference would make for way under 40% black.

Whites in VA do not equal whites in NC.

Still, this poll is garbage.  And I heard the comment about North Carolina whites tending to be upper-income from this guy.  Which proves he knows nothing.

[Sam Spade]

Whites in VA do not equal whites in NC.

I don't know how saying, "if the relative black vote in Virginia was 3/4 of Kerry's base, it's realistic that it could be 3/4 or less in North Carolina," implies that they are the same or comments on to their similarities/differences in any way.

I understand, but that wasn't the tenor of the comment.  I suspect 40% is the ceiling, frankly, and I still believe it will be more in the 33%-35% range.

Still, I believe that NC should fundamentally be a 10%-15% win for Obama, in the same way that Indiana should be a 5%-10% win for Clinton.