NC Prim D: Insider Advantage: Clinton now leads Obama by 2

[Alcon]

Last poll 4/14

Clinton 44% (+8)
Obama 42% (-9)

[Alcon]

Sad to see the Insider Advantage guy perpetuating the myth that most of North Carolina's white voters are in the Research Triangle.

[Alcon]

Take a look at the polls in the states stretching from Mississippi to Virginia.

Obama underpolls in the south. He even did in Tennessee. And Obama can only win by 10 tops? That would require the electorate to be around only 40% black.

The black vote in the Virginia primary was 3/4 of its share of Kerry's vote in 2004.  In North Carolina, that difference would make for way under 40% black.

[Alcon]

Whites in VA do not equal whites in NC.

I don't know how saying, "if the relative black vote in Virginia was 3/4 of Kerry's base, it's realistic that it could be 3/4 or less in North Carolina," implies that they are the same or comments on to their similarities/differences in any way.