NC Prim D: Insider Advantage: Clinton now leads Obama by 2

[agcatter]

Hillary won't win NC, however recent polling indicates it might not be the 15 pt. blowout most expected a week ago.  In fact, that looks doubtful at present.

9 or 10 points in the end I'd predict.

[agcatter]

Obama wins NC by 10 at most.

Indiana is Clinton's by 8.

They then move on to West Va where it it Clinton by between 35 and 40.

Oregon to Obama by 8.

Clinton wins Kentucky by 32.

[agcatter]

I thought an Obama win of 10 was a pretty good showing myself.

I guess I just don't have the unlimited faith in Barack's polling power that Obama backers seem to have.  In fact, since February in the Wisconsin Primary, I haven't been overwhelmed by his vote getting abilities in any of primary states - unless you count Mississippi where the Democratic electorate was 50% black.  I mean, for a guy outspending his opponent 3 to 1 it hasn't been all that hot actually.

[agcatter]

Look, we all know the demographics of the Democratic vote in NC and thus it is impossible for Hillary to win the state.  He'll get 90% of a block of probably 35% of the total vote that will be black.  Just do the math.  Has Hillary gained ground among whites?  I think any objective pundit looking at the recent polling would say absolutey that she has.  She'll probably get as high as the low 60s max but we can all do math and know even that won't be near enough.

The scary thing for Democrats has been his performance among whites since Wisconsin.  It's the reason he'll lose Indiana or any other primary state east of the Mississippi with less than 15% of the vote that is black.  He's struggled with whites since Wisconsin.  He's not even polling like he once was with white independents and that was part of his early primary coalition.  This isn't a good trend for a candidate who has had the advantage of unlimited political funding in state after state.

[agcatter]

BTW, that Mason Dixon Poll has

Obama   49
Clinton   42