LA-06-SurveyUSA: Cazayoux favored in special election

[CollectiveInterest]

What's going to keep the GOP from getting shellacked in November? Money? GOTV? Improved conditions in Iraq? The economy getting better?

Dems realize they have the momentum after winning in IL-14 and LA-06. The money will be there for Dem candidates. The volunteers will be there. Dems will twist the arms of family members to vote Dem.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

I think that would be some ridiculous number, like 50. Not going to happen.

Yeah, the Club for Growth doesn't have the resources to take down that many incumbent Republicans in primaries - but I'm sure they will try anyway.

And now this will become a war between me and bullmoose, htmldon, etc. 

And that's the problem.  I don't want a war with you, I want a majority in Congress.   Moderates don't have an organization that attacks conservative GOP incuments to take them down in primaries,so that Dems can win.

[Keystone Phil]

 Moderates don't have an organization that attacks conservative GOP incuments to take them down in primaries,so that Dems can win.

You're right. We just have "moderates" like Lincoln Chafee who take our party's money and will cozy up to the establishment for whatever benefits they can get and then turn around and bash those "extremists."

I want a majority, too, Don, but I want a majority that means something. I don't want people like Chafee who choose to undermine our party every chance they get. I will continue to say: My problem is not with moderates. My problem is with liberal Republicans that have no reason to be in our party. Lincoln Chafee kept insisting he was a Republican. He lost his seat. Suddenly, he leaves the party. He ultimately agreed with me that the GOP isn't the right party for him but he decided to lie about it and you insist on making excuses for him and others.

Arlen Specter campaigned to be re-nominated based on the idea that he'd be a stronger candidate to help Bush win PA (whatever that means since I can confidently say that zero people are deciding to turn out to vote or deciding who to vote for based on who their Senate candidates are). He misled Republicans here. 51% fell for his BS, fell for his ads with the President and Santorum saying how much we needed Arlen Specter. Arlen Specter was on his way to winning a comfortable victory but just had to do something that he thought would boost his numbers in a certain area, just to satisfy that insane ego of his. In doing that, he wasn't doing everything he could to help Bush win PA. It's not like he just sat around and refused to help. Oh, no, no, no. He actually promoted the President's opponent.

I'm tired of your lecturing about Republican majorities, Don, when you continue to defend those who actively help the other side.

[Verily]

What's going to keep the GOP from getting shellacked in November? Money? GOTV? Improved conditions in Iraq? The economy getting better?

Dems realize they have the momentum after winning in IL-14 and LA-06. The money will be there for Dem candidates. The volunteers will be there. Dems will twist the arms of family members to vote Dem.

60% of open seats less Republican than this one, okay. (I think 60% would be about 10 seats.) But 60% of all seats less Republican is absurd.

[HardRCafé]

There is a world of difference between Moderates who are trustworthy Liberal Republicans and Moderates who are always looking for the next opportunity to stick it to the Right just to suck up to the Left.  Chuck Hagel is an example of the latter.

[CultureKing]

 Moderates don't have an organization that attacks conservative GOP incuments to take them down in primaries,so that Dems can win.

You're right. We just have "moderates" like Lincoln Chafee who take our party's money and will cozy up to the establishment for whatever benefits they can get and then turn around and bash those "extremists."

I want a majority, too, Don, but I want a majority that means something. I don't want people like Chafee who choose to undermine our party every chance they get. I will continue to say: My problem is not with moderates. My problem is with liberal Republicans that have no reason to be in our party. Lincoln Chafee kept insisting he was a Republican. He lost his seat. Suddenly, he leaves the party. He ultimately agreed with me that the GOP isn't the right party for him but he decided to lie about it and you insist on making excuses for him and others.

Arlen Specter campaigned to be re-nominated based on the idea that he'd be a stronger candidate to help Bush win PA (whatever that means since I can confidently say that zero people are deciding to turn out to vote or deciding who to vote for based on who their Senate candidates are). He misled Republicans here. 51% fell for his BS, fell for his ads with the President and Santorum saying how much we needed Arlen Specter. Arlen Specter was on his way to winning a comfortable victory but just had to do something that he thought would boost his numbers in a certain area, just to satisfy that insane ego of his. In doing that, he wasn't doing everything he could to help Bush win PA. It's not like he just sat around and refused to help. Oh, no, no, no. He actually promoted the President's opponent.

I'm tired of your lecturing about Republican majorities, Don, when you continue to defend those who actively help the other side.

Don't you think that Chafee and Specter represent their states pretty well though? I mean seriously what are you going to do in Rhode Island try and elect a real conservative? And in Pennsylvania you might be able to get a true conservative a senate seat for maybe a term or two but the moment the dems find a credible candidate then they would be out. You have to judge each politician base on who they represent and really Specter and Chafee to me did a swell job of trying to balance their duty to party and their states. Oh and just because you think that the republican party should only go for one or two types of candidates doesn't mean that all republicans want the same kind of candidate, if you try and force out the moderates of the GOP then you will end up losing a large number of elections.

[HardRCafé]

Don't you think that Chafee and Specter represent their states pretty well though?

I think Babs Boxer represents California pretty well, but only in the sense that I think California is as screwed up as she is.  I am not about to congratulate her for it.

[Keystone Phil]

Don't you think that Chafee and Specter represent their states pretty well though? I mean seriously what are you going to do in Rhode Island try and elect a real conservative?

That doesn't make them any more Republican though.

 

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What sense does that make? Any conservative will be beat in PA if the Dems find someone credible? Uh, no, not necessarily.

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And, as I said before, I am not about eliminating moderates. I simply don't believe in liberal Republicans. Someone like Chafee obviously belongs elsewhere and, after initially refusing to admit that for his own electoral purposes, he agreed and left us.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

What's going to keep the GOP from getting shellacked in November? Money? GOTV? Improved conditions in Iraq? The economy getting better?

The fact that elections in November will be a *general* election rather than a *special* election seems to be the major wall.  This part seems to be largely escaping you.

[Meeker]

There is a rumor going around that Jackson is going to enter the November contest as an Independent, a move which would almost assuredly cost Cazayoux re-election. However, it's very much just a rumor, and I can't find any legit source to back it up.

The most suspicious part about it is probably the fact that it doesn't make any sense. But FYI, the rumor is out there.

[Brittain33]

The fact that elections in November will be a *general* election rather than a *special* election seems to be the major wall.  This part seems to be largely escaping you.

A good point. The NRCC won't have the resources to help out in every seat in November the way they have been able to in most special elections so far, while the DCCC will.

[Brandon H]

Here is a blogger from LA talking about the rumor of Jackson running as an independent:
http://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2008/05/cazayoux-win-gains-short-lease-on.html .

[Brittain33]

Here is a blogger from LA talking about the rumor of Jackson running as an independent:
http://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2008/05/cazayoux-win-gains-short-lease-on.html .

Anyone who talks about "the Democrat plantation" for African-American voters and politicians is tipping his hand a little too far, IMO. I'm talking about the blogger, not anyone cited.

[HardRCafé]

while the DCCC will.

Is it possible to bogart acid?

[Brittain33]

while the DCCC will.

Is it possible to bogart acid?

Yeah, I edited it from "every seat" to "most seats" but didn't save it.

As for the acid, though, the news from two weeks ago:

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When the DCCC has $35 million more COH right now than the Republicans, and the recent news only making Tom Cole's job harder, it's simply a fact that the NRCC won't be able to go toe-to-toe with the Democrats in every competitive district the way they have in OH-5, IL-14, LA-6, and MS-1. They won't even be able to go 50% against the Democrats. There will be a lot of contestable seats in the general election the NRCC will sit out for lack of funding while the Democrats will be able to top up spending for our candidates.

Jim Oberweis and Woody Jenkins weren't competing with 50 other ROMPer/STOMPers (or whatever else the Republicans are calling their recruits these days) for money.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

As much as I'm hoping Jackson doesn't do that (nor do I see what exactly the point of that would be, unless sour grapes are THAT big for him), the thread of it might be enough to get Cazayoux to endorse Obama, which is fine by me. Actually Cazayoux is better off endorsing Obama regardless just because he needs high black turnout (especially since Livingston Parish provides the GOP just as solid a base of votes as blacks do for the Democrats here.)

[HardRCafé]

Yeah, I edited it from "every seat" to "most seats" but didn't save it.

Ah, fair enough then.  I do not often agree with you, but your posts usually make plenty of sense.