Can McCain defeat Obama?

[exopolitician]

Yes. Obama can beat McCain as well. Sady I cant say that though cause then automatically im a sinful racist Obama supporter...so yes...McCain canwillobviously beat Obama in the fall.

[agcatter]

Just like I'm a racist for not supporting the black guy.  LOL

[Gustaf]

Given how he would landslide if the electino was today, he obviously "could" win.

The Realclear politics averages have him up about 1 percent on both Obama and Clinton. You must be assuming Obama to be the nominee and also to have a healthy dose of Bradley effect thrown in as well (on top of the fact that the Bradley effect is probably already showing up in polls given the recent Wright flap has been so prominent in the news).

I think it's pretty unreasonable to say that the election would be anything other than close if held today; at the very least such as statement requires explanation as to why current polling is too favorable to Democrats.

Of the polls I've seen, for the General Election, I trust Rasmussen more than SUSA and the rest I don't particularly buy at all. And, besides, most of the non-Rasmussen polls are now older. On the national level, Gallup, which didn't do that well last time, has McCain up 2, Pew, which is a bit of a joke and, IIRC, definitely Democrat biased, has Obama up and Rasmussen has McCain up by a lot.

Please note that I'm not saying McCain will win in a landslide in November or even that he would have if the current situation had been produced by an actual GE campaign, as opposed to a Democratic primary battle. And of course the Wright thing is weighing down Obama right now. Ok, landslide may have been pushing it a little. I do believe that at his recent high-point McCain would have won in an election that would not have looked particularly close. If you look at the poll map here right now McCain is ahead by 58 EVs and that is without Nebraska, North Dakota and South Carolina which are all being displayed as tossups. Granted, Obama has a couple of states to throw in too, but the fact of the matter is that McCain is clearly ahead right now. And if a candidate is ahead I think it's pretty clear that they could win. I never said Obama couldn't win, but the thread question is what it is.

[agcatter]

Just too early to see any real trends.

[Frodo]

Yes, McCain can defeat Obama, but it doesn't necessarily mean that he will win.  In fact, I am predicting (and have, for some time now) that he won't.

If Obama wins the general election this November, combined with increased Democratic majorities in both houses of Congress, along with further gains at the state level, he as well as his party can thank the GOP for unwitting enabling their victory which could, in all likelihood, be the Democratic equivalent of 1980.  The six years of (nearly) unbroken Republican rule from 2001 to 2007 can be seen as a necessary step to help Democrats in the process of reinventing themselves as a party with a coherent vision and a grassroots coalition to bring that vision about, as opposed to merely a laundry list of disjointed DC-centered interest groups comprising its membership. 

Conservative excesses on all fronts, whether it be in the invasion and botched reconstruction of Iraq, the perceived failure of conservative economics (and this recession will further reinforce that), and the preference for national mandates by the Religious Right (e.g. the constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage, and extraordinary congressional Republican action to prevent Terry Schiavo from being euthanized) will be seen as the catalyst for what is likely to be a realigning election. 

[classical liberal]

Yes, McCain can defeat Obama, but it doesn't necessarily mean that he will win.  In fact, I am predicting (and have, for some time now) that he won't.

If Obama wins the general election this November, combined with increased Democratic majorities in both houses of Congress, along with further gains at the state level, he as well as his party can thank the GOP for unwitting enabling their victory which could, in all likelihood, be the Democratic equivalent of 1980.  The six years of (nearly) unbroken Republican rule from 2001 to 2007 can be seen as a necessary step to help Democrats in the process of reinventing themselves as a party with a coherent vision and a grassroots coalition to bring that vision about, as opposed to merely a laundry list of disjointed DC-centered interest groups comprising its membership. 

Conservative excesses on all fronts, whether it be in the invasion and botched reconstruction of Iraq, the perceived failure of conservative economics (and this recession will further reinforce that), and the preference for national mandates by the Religious Right (e.g. the constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage, and extraordinary congressional Republican action to prevent Terry Schiavo from being euthanized) will be seen as the catalyst for what is likely to be a realigning election. 

Of course, if the Dems are in office in ~September 2014 when, if history is any guide, the economy will have its next cyclic downswing, they will almost certainly loose both houses in the November midterms.

[MarkBGraham2008]

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dont you think it is time for a third choice

[AltWorlder]

Oh yeah?  Can you beat Obama?

[Ronnie]

I think that the odds are against McCain at this point.  We are in an economic downturn, an unpopular war, and have an unpopular president from the Republican Party.

However, Obama is a very weak candidate, and is pretty unpopular with the working class.  There are going to be light blue states in play when the election season comes, and many Hillary supporters are not going to vote for him no matter what.  It's going to be a VERY close election no matter how you put it.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

A McCain-Obama race is the one that makes me the most queasy.

I just have this vision of Reagan/Mondale all over again.

Nearly 6 months later. Hmmmm