OR PrimD: Survey USA: Obama leads by 6

[Math]

Obama: 50%
Clinton: 44%
Other: 2%
Undecided: 4%


In a Democratic Primary in Oregon today, 05/01/08, three weeks till votes are counted, Barack Obama edges Hillary Clinton 50% to 44%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KATU-TV in Portland. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll released 3 weeks ago, Obama is down 2, Clinton is up 2.

Obama had led by 10, now leads by 6 -- small movement to be sure, and within the survey's margin of sampling error, but movement away from Obama and to Clinton nonetheless. Among voters younger than Obama, Obama leads by 15. Among voters older than McCain, Clinton leads by 15. The Gender Gap has shrunk from 37 points to 22 points. Among females, Clinton had led by 7, now by 4. Among males, Obama had led by 30, now by 18. Clinton leads narrowly among voters focused on the Economy and on Health Care. Obama leads among voters focused on Iraq.

Full Poll Details

[J. J.]

It's way too early.

[Nutmeg]

I'll buy it.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Interestingly, this is one of the few states where Obama does better among decided voters at a statistically significant rate.  He leads those with minds made (74%) by 11 and trails those who could change their minds by 11.

Also weird how the Portland area keeps polling so much closer...I have no idea where Clinton would do especially well there.  Although Portland's working-class sprawl areas (in Multnomah County) could be good for her.

Also, remember that Oregon is all vote-by-mail.  This race will be over far before election day.  It's not way too early, just too early.

Key to Obama's lead - areligious whites.  Obama leads them solidly, and they're half of Oregon's electorate.  The male sample in the previous poll was out of whack.  I don't really see much erosion here.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

This isn't a huge change from their last poll and frankly I have a hard to time buying that it's this close.... but then again, it's kind of nice to see any primary poll where Obama leads among white voters at this point.

[So the Heroes Fall]

It's not surprising at all that whites in states with no blacks like Obama more than whites in states with lots of blacks.

[Gustaf]

I never thought Oregon would be a huge landslide. I'm expecting it to be more similar to Pennsylvania or Ohio (but reversed, of course) Which means a 6% lead at this point is about right.

[kevinatcausa]

What are the voting patterns like in Oregon, timing-wise?

In other words, about what proportion of Oregon voters will have already voted by this point (or is such a number even known)?

[Grad Students are the Worst]

What are the voting patterns like in Oregon, timing-wise?

In other words, about what proportion of Oregon voters will have already voted by this point (or is such a number even known)?

Oregon doesn't report ballot return rates, but Marion County does individually for past elections.  The primary is May 20th.  Judging by the return rates for 2006, I'd guesstimate that about a third of ballots have already been cast.

[ottermax]

I think "Portland" includes Astoria and the rest of that NW Oregon region which should vote Clinton.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

I think "Portland" includes Astoria and the rest of that NW Oregon region which should vote Clinton.

I've had constant arguments over whom Astoria will vote for with bgwah.  Obama and Clinton both have strong constituencies there.  Obama has environmentalists and hippies, Clinton has working-class whites.  Columbia County should be strong for Clinton.

However, defining "Portland" as Clatsop + Columbia + Yamhill + Clackamas + Washington + Multnomah, which is pretty impressive, Clatsop and Columbia are only 5% of the district.  Interestingly, I've forgotten how much Columbia is becoming an exurb of Portland.  That could help Obama limit his bleeding there.

By that definition, 52% of registered Democrats (as of last month) would be in the Portland metro.

I have no earthly idea how hey managed to get 69% of Democrats sampled as being in the Portland metro.  That means that the SUSA definition must go all the way down to Salem.

[Senator Sbane]

How do you guys think Salem will vote? I would guess Salem would be one of Hillary's strongest areas? Seemed like a small working class town to me. Obama will win Eugene of course but who will win Medford? Ashland will also be Obamas.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

How do you guys think Salem will vote? I would guess Salem would be one of Hillary's strongest areas? Seemed like a small working class town to me.

Lots of university students + state workers.  City proper should be Obama or competitive; suburbs may flip it. 

Obama will win Eugene of course but who will win Medford?

Hard to say.  It's a pretty Republican town.  Not the kind of place that Clinton is probably the most popular name in the world, but also woring-class

Ashland will also be Obamas.

Big time.

[ottermax]

I think "Portland" includes Astoria and the rest of that NW Oregon region which should vote Clinton.

I've had constant arguments over whom Astoria will vote for with bgwah.  Obama and Clinton both have strong constituencies there.  Obama has environmentalists and hippies, Clinton has working-class whites.  Columbia County should be strong for Clinton.

However, defining "Portland" as Clatsop + Columbia + Yamhill + Clackamas + Washington + Multnomah, which is pretty impressive, Clatsop and Columbia are only 5% of the district.  Interestingly, I've forgotten how much Columbia is becoming an exurb of Portland.  That could help Obama limit his bleeding there.

By that definition, 52% of registered Democrats (as of last month) would be in the Portland metro.

I have no earthly idea how hey managed to get 69% of Democrats sampled as being in the Portland metro.  That means that the SUSA definition must go all the way down to Salem.

I actually remember now. The SUSA definition extends all the way to Linn County, so it is not really Portland, more like the Willamete valley.

[ottermax]

Here are the regional definitions:

http://www.surveyusa.com/SUSA_Regional_Definitions_As_Of_080305.htm

For some reason, Jefferson, Wasco, Sherman, Morrow, Gilliam, Wheeler, and Crook counties, all East of the Cascades are considered part of the Portland area according to SUSA.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Red = Portland area
Blue = everywhere else.



Yes it's kind of dumb.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Where'd you find that information?

And...Wheeler County in the Portland metro?  What the f@*k?

That should be more than 69% of the electorate, but whatever.

[So the Heroes Fall]

http://www.surveyusa.com/SUSA_Regional_Definitions_As_Of_080305.htm

[Grad Students are the Worst]

http://www.surveyusa.com/SUSA_Regional_Definitions_As_Of_080305.htm

What the hell?  Does it have something to do with telephone exchanges?  It shouldn't...I'm sure Wheeler has its own.  And even if it doesn't, why bother to inflate Portland to 69% by including a bunch of random areas?  OK then.

[ottermax]

I don't think they realize that there are mountains....