OR PrimD: Survey USA: Obama leads by 6

[Alcon]

Interestingly, this is one of the few states where Obama does better among decided voters at a statistically significant rate.  He leads those with minds made (74%) by 11 and trails those who could change their minds by 11.

Also weird how the Portland area keeps polling so much closer...I have no idea where Clinton would do especially well there.  Although Portland's working-class sprawl areas (in Multnomah County) could be good for her.

Also, remember that Oregon is all vote-by-mail.  This race will be over far before election day.  It's not way too early, just too early.

Key to Obama's lead - areligious whites.  Obama leads them solidly, and they're half of Oregon's electorate.  The male sample in the previous poll was out of whack.  I don't really see much erosion here.

[Alcon]

What are the voting patterns like in Oregon, timing-wise?

In other words, about what proportion of Oregon voters will have already voted by this point (or is such a number even known)?

Oregon doesn't report ballot return rates, but Marion County does individually for past elections.  The primary is May 20th.  Judging by the return rates for 2006, I'd guesstimate that about a third of ballots have already been cast.

[Alcon]

I think "Portland" includes Astoria and the rest of that NW Oregon region which should vote Clinton.

I've had constant arguments over whom Astoria will vote for with bgwah.  Obama and Clinton both have strong constituencies there.  Obama has environmentalists and hippies, Clinton has working-class whites.  Columbia County should be strong for Clinton.

However, defining "Portland" as Clatsop + Columbia + Yamhill + Clackamas + Washington + Multnomah, which is pretty impressive, Clatsop and Columbia are only 5% of the district.  Interestingly, I've forgotten how much Columbia is becoming an exurb of Portland.  That could help Obama limit his bleeding there.

By that definition, 52% of registered Democrats (as of last month) would be in the Portland metro.

I have no earthly idea how hey managed to get 69% of Democrats sampled as being in the Portland metro.  That means that the SUSA definition must go all the way down to Salem.

[Alcon]

How do you guys think Salem will vote? I would guess Salem would be one of Hillary's strongest areas? Seemed like a small working class town to me.

Lots of university students + state workers.  City proper should be Obama or competitive; suburbs may flip it. 

Obama will win Eugene of course but who will win Medford?

Hard to say.  It's a pretty Republican town.  Not the kind of place that Clinton is probably the most popular name in the world, but also woring-class

Ashland will also be Obamas.

Big time.

[Alcon]

Where'd you find that information?

And...Wheeler County in the Portland metro?  What the f@*k?

That should be more than 69% of the electorate, but whatever.

[Alcon]

http://www.surveyusa.com/SUSA_Regional_Definitions_As_Of_080305.htm

What the hell?  Does it have something to do with telephone exchanges?  It shouldn't...I'm sure Wheeler has its own.  And even if it doesn't, why bother to inflate Portland to 69% by including a bunch of random areas?  OK then.