Moore information polls: IA, WA, WI

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The Republican firm Moore information recently conducted polls of IA, WA, and WI "for their own consumption" (according to The Hotline).

Iowa:
500 LVs, conducted 8/22-23

Bush - 48
Kerry - 46
Nader - 2

Party Breakdown:
GOP - 37
Dem - 36
Ind/Oth - 27

Probably 3 or 4% too Republican, with not nearly enough Independents.

Washington:
600 LVs, conducted 8/14-15

Bush - 44
Kerry - 50
Nader - 4

Don't know the party breakdown.


Wisconsin:
500 LVs, conducted 8/22-23

Bush - 47
Kerry - 45
Und/Oth - 8

Party Breakdown:
GOP - 38
Dem - 38
Ind/Oth - 24

Very close to accurate party breakdown.

[jacob_101]

Is this polling firm any good?

[Keystone Phil]

The Republican firm Moore information recently conducted polls of IA, WA, and WI "for their own consumption" (according to The Hotline).

Iowa:
500 LVs, conducted 8/22-23

Bush - 48
Kerry - 46
Nader - 2

Party Breakdown:
GOP - 37
Dem - 36
Ind/Oth - 27

Probably 3 or 4% too Republican, with not nearly enough Independents.

Washington:
600 LVs, conducted 8/14-15

Bush - 44
Kerry - 50
Nader - 4

Don't know the party breakdown.


Wisconsin:
500 LVs, conducted 8/22-23

Bush - 47
Kerry - 45
Und/Oth - 8

Party Breakdown:
GOP - 38
Dem - 38
Ind/Oth - 24

Very close to accurate party breakdown.

The Iowa numbers seem alittle off. Washington seems accurate. Wisconsin is probably a dead heat now.

[Floridude]

Actually, dunno about the iowa polls, wouldnt be surprised if there were more registered republicans but i dont know.  Does anyone know exit poll data from 2000, and which way registered people are trending?

[The Vorlon]

Thanks for the polls NickG...

The Iowa Voter ID numbers are just fine actually...

Actual Voter Registration is Iowa is:

GOP = 28.85%
Dem = 28.26%
Other = 40.89%

http://www.sos.state.ia.us/pdfs/VoterRegStatsByCounty.pdf

I "assume" that the quoted party ID's are self-identification.

Given that the GOP has a huge and commanding <<cough>> 0.49% advantage in actual voter registration, a 1% advantage in self-identification seems reasonable.

Wisconsin has same-day voter registration, so voter registration data is... murky... to say the least...

Washington does not require a party ID to be declared when you register, I have seen estimates of Party ID anywhere from +7 on the Dem side to +1 on the GOP side.  I think it is closer to the +7 side, but there actually is no "real" number.

ARG (typically not to GOP friendly) has Iowa tied, and Strategic Vision had Kerrry +1, If we assume that Bush has picked up a point or two as kerry's convention bounce faded, Iowa +2 for Bush is "sane" - although I am nore sure it is right.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I was basing my comment on the 2000 exit poll in Iowa which was 32 Dem/29 GOP/38 Ind.  Either way, it's pretty close vis-a-vis Dems and Republicans, but short on Indies.

[The Vorlon]

I was basing my comment on the 2000 exit poll in Iowa which was 32 Dem/29 GOP/38 Ind.  Either way, it's pretty close vis-a-vis Dems and Republicans, but short on Indies.

I think we can say the sample is "in the ballpark" but beyond that it's tough to say...

This is also an LV poll, and typically a greater % of beoth Dems + GOP vs Indys are identified as "likely" hence Indy's typically are a bit less that their "registered" % in an LV Poll.

Hey, it's a tiny sample poll from a Partisan firm...  I am hardly changing my view of the Universe based upon them..

[Gustaf]

The WA result is an exact copy of the 2000 result, I believe. (I don't know WHY this is important, but since I noticed it, it simply has to be!)