State Legislative Elections 2004
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Author Topic: State Legislative Elections 2004  (Read 8786 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
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« on: August 26, 2004, 07:41:43 AM »

Couldn't think of anywhere else to put this so...

Which state house/senates d'yi all think with flip this year?
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Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
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« Reply #1 on: August 26, 2004, 08:26:10 PM »

TN Senate will go Republican.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #2 on: August 27, 2004, 02:49:09 AM »

Which state house/senates d'yi all think with flip this year?
The National Conference of State Legislatures lists the following top 10 battleground states:

http://www.ncsl.org

Colorado Senate. Democrats need just one seat to take power of the chamber from the Republican Party.

Georgia House of Representatives. A new redistricting plan gives Republicans the best chance they've had in decades to make gains.

Indiana House of Representatives. Democrats hold a one seat advantage in a chamber that has gone back and forth in recent years.

Maine Senate. Only one seat separates the parties in this chamber in a state which is expected to be a presidential battleground.

Montana House of Representatives. A new redistricting plan gives Democrats their best hope in years to seize control of the House.

North Carolina House of Representatives. Following the 2002 election, a party switch left the chamber tied and legislative power shared by both parties.

Oklahoma House of Representatives. Republicans, who have had steady gains in recent elections, only need three seats to take control of this chamber.

Oregon Senate. Tied 15 to 15, both parties are determined to seize control.

Vermont House of Representatives. With more third party members than any other state, a coalition leadership might not be out of the question.

Washington Senate and House of Representatives. This has been the most competitive legislature in the past decade. Both chambers are toss-ups.
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TeePee4Prez
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« Reply #3 on: August 27, 2004, 03:39:37 AM »

PA-170:  Brendan Boyle will beat George Kenney!!!!  Sorry KeystonePhil, you'll be needing some Kleenexes for thsi one as well as Melissa Brown's finale loss.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #4 on: August 27, 2004, 10:05:42 AM »

PA-170:  Brendan Boyle will beat George Kenney!!!!  Sorry KeystonePhil, you'll be needing some Kleenexes for thsi one as well as Melissa Brown's finale loss.

Did you read the question Handzus? It says which state legislatures would flip. The PA Senate and PA House will be Republican for awhile. Also, the Dems always think they are putting up a strong candidate against Kenney and he wins easily. I see no difference this time.
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TeePee4Prez
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« Reply #5 on: August 27, 2004, 03:52:48 PM »

If I'm not mistaken, there are a few competitve ones out in Montgomery County as well.  Even Ellen Bard's seat could go Democrat.
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PBrunsel
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« Reply #6 on: August 27, 2004, 08:03:49 PM »

It looks like the Republican Party will stay in controll of the Iowa State House.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #7 on: August 29, 2004, 06:36:23 PM »

If I'm not mistaken, there are a few competitve ones out in Montgomery County as well.  Even Ellen Bard's seat could go Democrat.

Jon Fox will win there. Plus, with a Boyle win and a Shapiro win, you still don't have the House. You won't have a Dem controlled House for awhile.

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hoshie
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« Reply #8 on: August 30, 2004, 07:37:43 AM »

Which state house/senates d'yi all think with flip this year?
North Carolina House of Representatives. Following the 2002 election, a party switch left the chamber tied and legislative power shared by both parties.

This I belleve. from what I read, a lot of the GOP is pretty upset with the guy who switched. I think he lost his seat in the recent primary.
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Lt. Gov. Immy
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« Reply #9 on: August 31, 2004, 06:38:06 PM »

I predict that the Democrats wil ltake control of both halves of the Idaho legislature.











Just kidding!
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nini2287
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« Reply #10 on: October 06, 2004, 07:44:22 PM »

If I'm not mistaken, there are a few competitve ones out in Montgomery County as well.  Even Ellen Bard's seat could go Democrat.

Jon Fox will win there. Plus, with a Boyle win and a Shapiro win, you still don't have the House. You won't have a Dem controlled House for awhile.



I disagree.  As someone who lives in the district, the area leans Democratic and Fox is a lot more polarizing than Shapiro, who Democrats have embraced.  This is a pickup for us in the house.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #11 on: October 06, 2004, 07:48:01 PM »

If I'm not mistaken, there are a few competitve ones out in Montgomery County as well.  Even Ellen Bard's seat could go Democrat.

Jon Fox will win there. Plus, with a Boyle win and a Shapiro win, you still don't have the House. You won't have a Dem controlled House for awhile.



I disagree.  As someone who lives in the district, the area leans Democratic and Fox is a lot more polarizing than Shapiro, who Democrats have embraced.  This is a pickup for us in the house.

It might be a lean Dem district but Fox has a huge name ID advantage. He might not will it easily but he'll keep the seat GOP.
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J. J.
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« Reply #12 on: October 07, 2004, 11:37:40 AM »

Jeffry Coy's (D) district, I think it's the 89th, has always been close.  Coy resigned to go to the new Gaming Commission.  It's likely to go GOP.
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Blerpiez
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« Reply #13 on: October 07, 2004, 06:50:21 PM »

There won't be a switch in MA.  The best the republicans could hope for is a minority in either house that could sustain a veto from Governor Romney.  There could be a couple upsets because of gay marraige though
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John Dibble
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« Reply #14 on: October 08, 2004, 06:51:59 AM »

The 50th Assembly District of Wisconsin and Illinois District 53 might just go Libertarian, though the former has a better chance.
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A18
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« Reply #15 on: October 08, 2004, 12:42:00 PM »

Polls?
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John Dibble
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« Reply #16 on: October 08, 2004, 02:33:15 PM »


Phillip, there are never polls for state legislative elections.
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A18
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« Reply #17 on: October 08, 2004, 03:23:07 PM »

So then the indication that those seats might go Libertarian is what?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #18 on: October 08, 2004, 03:26:07 PM »


Well first of all, that's not true. Of course it isn't nationwide news but polls are conducted for local races.

And like Philip said, if polls are "never" taken for these races, how would you know what the Libertarian chances are?
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John Dibble
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« Reply #19 on: October 08, 2004, 06:59:08 PM »


Well first of all, that's not true. Of course it isn't nationwide news but polls are conducted for local races.

And like Philip said, if polls are "never" taken for these races, how would you know what the Libertarian chances are?

I stated they had a chance - at least a better one than most Libertarians do. I've given the full reasons their chances are better in another thread, which shouldn't be too old, so look for it. In short, Kuester has a chance because the district is very libertarian leaning and he has managed to get more funding than the incumbant, Bludorn has a chance because redistricting made the disctrict more conservative and the incumbant is a liberal Republican. They could still lose, but I think their chances are good.
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A18
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« Reply #20 on: October 08, 2004, 08:53:04 PM »

How good do you think their chances are? 50/50?

It would be good progress, but I'm just not convinced. I guess we'll see.
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John Dibble
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« Reply #21 on: October 09, 2004, 12:18:07 PM »
« Edited: October 09, 2004, 12:25:52 PM by John Dibble »

How good do you think their chances are? 50/50?

It would be good progress, but I'm just not convinced. I guess we'll see.

Maybe 55% for Kuester, since the incumbant has done nothing but bring attention to him(which resulted in positive press for him, negative for her). 40% for Bludorn, depending on how hard he works, since his campaign is very grassroots due to lack of funding.

Of course, I could just be overly optimistic, but if anyone here lives in those areas please throw our guys some votes.
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rbt48
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« Reply #22 on: October 09, 2004, 09:05:35 PM »

Nebraska's officially non-partisan Unicameral will remain overwhelmingly Republican.  Right now it is 36 R, 13 D, 3 I.  Legilative candidates run without party label here, though the state party clearly pulls for and helps fund the candidates from their respective party.  The primary in May is also non-partisan and the top two finishers advance to the November election.  Hence, you can end up with two from the same party contesting for a seat in Nov.  I know at least two districts have two Republicans running this year.
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A18
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« Reply #23 on: October 09, 2004, 09:07:06 PM »

Nebraska has the coolest legislature in the world.  :-)
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jimrtex
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« Reply #24 on: November 06, 2004, 05:00:45 AM »

An update:
Which state house/senates d'yi all think with flip this year?
The National Conference of State Legislatures lists the following top 10 battleground states:

http://www.ncsl.org

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Democrats not only picked up the 1 Senate seat, they picked up 5 House seat to take control of both chambers by one vote in each.

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Republicans pick up 19 House seats and 3 Senate seats with one still counting.  I suspect that their 94R:86D control of the House is a first time since Reconstruction sort of result.

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The Republicans picked up 3 seats to take control.

Iowa Not mentioned in the NCSL's list of battleground states, but a 4 seat pickup in the Senate, makes that body a 25:25 split.

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The Democrats maintained their one seat majority.  In the House, the Republicans picked up 6 seats, to make it 76D:73R:2O.

Minnesota Another state not mentioned in the NCSL list.  Democrats pick up 14 seats in the House to make it 68R:66DFL

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Democrats pick up 2 seats in the House, with 1 race undecided.  If they win that seat it will be a 50D:50R split.  But the Democrats also picked up 6 Senate seats to take control there 27D:23R.

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Democrats pick up 5 seats to retake control 63D:57R.

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Republicans pick up 3 times 3 seats, to assume a 57R:44D majority.

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Democrats pick up 3 seats to make it 18D:12R.

Tennessee Republicans pick up 2 seats to take a 17R:16D majority in the Senate.

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There are still 7 3rd party members, but the Democrats picked up 14 seats to take a clear 83D:60R:7O majority.

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Democrats pick up 1, with a chance for another to take control of the Senate, 25D:23R:1 undecided.  They extend their House majority by 3 to 55D:43R.

Incidentally, Washington voters voted for a semi-Louisiana plan for partisan elections.  In the primary, candidates from all parties are placed on the same ballot.  The two top vote-getters regardless of party will contest the general election.  This differs from Louisiana elections where a candidate with a majority is elected without a run-off. 

Overall, Dems take control of the lower house in 3 states: Colorado, North Carolina, and Vermont, while the GOP takes control in 3 states: Georgia, Indiana, and Oklahoma.  The Iowa House goes from GOP-control to tied.

In the upper houses, Democrats take control in Colorado, Iowa, Montana, and Washington, while the Republicans take control in Tennessee.
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