If he has a nice convention, he could come out sitting pretty.
I think Bush will get a modest boost (similar to Kerry’s, perhaps a little less) after the RNC convention with the likes of McCain and Arnie speaking it should look very good for the Republicans, the protest may in fact help Bush, at the same time they may not… over all I think Bush will get a modest boost that will have evaporated within a week and we’ll be back to Bush and Kerry on evens until the debates when a lot people will finally make their minds up… at that point I think that it will be more likely that Kerry would lose it than Bush would win it, If Kerry can perform to the level he did against Bill Weld in 96 he will win, if he performs like he did in a number of the democratic debates he will lose with voters who are disillusioned with Bush but not sold on Kerry staying home, if he does well they will come out and vote for him… I still think this will come down to the wire, I don’t see Bush or Kerry opening up a clear lead any time soon.
