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Author Topic: It's Early Days But Clinton Has A Lock On The Dem Nomination  (Read 6385 times)
Robespierre's Jaw
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« Reply #25 on: August 02, 2007, 04:36:33 pm »
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Hillary Clinton dosen't have a "lock" on the Democratic Nomination so far. Even though some polls are suggesting she's way out in front of Barack Obama & John Edwards, she'll have to wait until she's won Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada & South Carolina first to have a lock.

Hopefully Hillary Clinton, dosen't end up being the Democrat's nominee in 2008, because it will end up backfiring and the Republicans will keep the keys to the White House. I really hope, someone like Barack Obama or Bill Richardson gets the nomination, but I doubt this will occur because Hillary will shoot their candidacy's down in the blaze of glory.
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« Reply #26 on: August 02, 2007, 10:43:33 pm »
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Hillary Clinton dosen't have a "lock" on the Democratic Nomination so far. Even though some polls are suggesting she's way out in front of Barack Obama & John Edwards, she'll have to wait until she's won Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada & South Carolina first to have a lock.

Hopefully Hillary Clinton, dosen't end up being the Democrat's nominee in 2008, because it will end up backfiring and the Republicans will keep the keys to the White House. I really hope, someone like Barack Obama or Bill Richardson gets the nomination, but I doubt this will occur because Hillary will shoot their candidacy's down in the blaze of glory.

What I am hoping is that she would defeat herself fighting the alternatives or comes out unscathed, proving herself to be the shadow president, much like Bush did. In fact, everyone had as hunch that Bush would be president since time in the 2000 election cycle....people are begining to have that hunch about Clinton.
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« Reply #27 on: August 03, 2007, 01:53:51 pm »
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I fully expect Clinton to be the Democratic nominee, but then again I fully expected Dean to be the Democratic nominee as well. Either way, Clinton is much stronger than Dean ever was; whether that constitutes a "lock", I don't know.
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« Reply #28 on: August 03, 2007, 02:03:36 pm »
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Rasmussen has an interesting analysis of the Democratic Nomination:

Quote
In last week’s Democratic Presidential Debate, Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama took different approaches when responding to a question about meeting with the heads of rogue nations. The differences gave pundits something to talk about and the campaigns something to spin. Polling by Rasmussen Reports gave both campaigns something to work with—most Democrats tended to agree with Obama while a plurality of voters leaned more in Clinton’s direction.

Even though most Democrats leaned in Obama’s direction on the one question, 46% of Democrats name Clinton as the candidate they trust most on national security issues. Just 19% named Obama. Clinton’s numbers are so strong among Democrats that she outpolled Rudy Giuliani on the national security question among all voters.

So, when all is said and done, what was the impact of the debate dispute on the Democratic race? There wasn’t any. Nothing happened. All the digs and commentary and spin and punditry produced absolutely no substantive change in the dynamic of the race. Clinton remains well out in front, Obama is a distant second, and former Senator John Edwards is an even more distant third struggling for a way to re-enter the top-tier.

Clinton has continued to solidify her lead as she has been doing for months (review long-term trends with the Rasmussen Reports weekly polling update or more immediate reaction with our daily tracking poll).

This news cycle is a pattern that we are likely to see repeated many times in the coming weeks and months. Some event or comment will spark a dust-up between the Clinton and Obama campaigns followed by a flash storm of comments and coverage. Then, the tracking polls will look as if nothing ever happened.

That’s because New York Senator Hillary Clinton is the default candidate option for the Democratic Party. She is by far the most well-known person running for President and has been an extraordinarily high profile national figure for fifteen years. Some of next year’s voters were in pre-school when Clinton first moved into the White House as First Lady. In recent history, only Richard Nixon was as well-known nationally during his run for the White House. Nobody else even comes close.

The fact that Clinton is so well-known means that there are few surprises. People have opinions about her, many of them strong. Some love her and some hate her. Her favorables have been close to the 50-50 mark all year. The number who would definitely vote for her in a general election has stayed between 28% and 30%. The number who would definitely vote against has stayed between 46% and 48%. Both figures are the highest or nearly the highest for any candidate in either party.

However, while the overall public is divided in its assessment of Clinton, the former First Lady remains very popular in the party she hopes to lead. Currently, 84% of Democrats have a favorable opinion of her.

In this environment, a modest flap over the answer to a debate question in incapable of shifting the playing field. It is hard to imagine any new information that could fundamentally alter the public perception of Clinton. As noted last week, “only a major gaffe or startling policy pronouncement will … impact the general public’s view of the race. “

The bottom line is that the Democrats will nominate Hillary Clinton unless Barack Obama can show them a definitive reason to change their mind. To use a boxing analogy, Obama needs a knock-out punch because Clinton will win the bout on points.
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« Reply #29 on: August 04, 2007, 12:14:59 pm »
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If Clinton runs I'm writing in Arnold.
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« Reply #30 on: August 05, 2007, 01:40:04 pm »
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I just think its hallarious what lengths that Democrats went to for the last 3 years to deny that this would be the case.
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« Reply #31 on: August 05, 2007, 09:16:37 pm »
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I was one of those deniers, but then I wasn't expecting to be so impressed with Clinton's gravitas.  In the debates that I have seen, she always seems like she knows what she's talking about.  I'm not yet sold on nominating her, but that is purely on cynical grounds.  I'd hate to see us throw away this election; but I'd love to see Clinton as president.
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« Reply #32 on: August 06, 2007, 09:42:22 pm »
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Obama has to be concerned.  it's early but Hillary has solidified her position without doubt.  One thing neither candidate is worried about is Edwards - a non factorexcept with the Kos wingnuts.
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« Reply #33 on: August 07, 2007, 12:35:49 pm »
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I was one of those deniers, but then I wasn't expecting to be so impressed with Clinton's gravitas.  In the debates that I have seen, she always seems like she knows what she's talking about.  I'm not yet sold on nominating her, but that is purely on cynical grounds.  I'd hate to see us throw away this election; but I'd love to see Clinton as president.

Yeah. That's what I am thinking.
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« Reply #34 on: August 15, 2007, 05:47:34 pm »
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I wouldn't say anyone has a lock since no one has even voted yet, but she's definitely way ahead. Only two of her competitors, Obama and Edwards, have a chance to catch her, and their campaigns have both gone backwards, while Clinton has improved her standing. So I don't know who's going to catch her. There are some other good candidates, but they have absolutely no chance, especially with the front-loaded nomination process (which increases Hillary's chance of stampeding to the nomination; if the same rules had applied in 2004, Dean probably would have won). The only candidate who would have a chance against her is Al Gore, and I don't think he's going to run. I think he would have gotten into the race by now if he intended to. The one thing Hillary has to watch out for is if all the anyone-but-her voters coalesce around one of the other candidates, not because they think he's a better candidate but because it's the only chance they have of stopping her. But again, the front-loading of the process will make that more difficult.

I think her chances will improve if it looks like the GOP will nominate a conservative (read Thompson). That might make some Democrats more comfortable with her, as it may lead them to believe that any Democrat will win in 2008. If the Republicans go for Giuliani or Romney, it might give the anti-Hillary Republicans more ammunition. But if she grabs the delegates before anyone else has a chance to, it won't matter.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #35 on: January 07, 2008, 11:29:48 am »
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It is becoming increasingly clear by now, even in these early days, that Hillary Clinton has a lock on the Democratic Presidential nomination.

Clinton is seen as intelligent, well spoken, experienced, well versed on the issues, has instant name and face recognition, and has celebrity status in her own right.

She is polling well.  She is well liked and admired by rank and file Democrats.

Barack Obama is not catching on.  The Democrats are not about to hand over their Presidential nomination to a Senator in his first term.  Frankly, the electorate, ultimately, would not hand over the Presidency to a Senator in his first term.  Obama is stalled, and has no momentum or traction, and is not likely to gain much. 

The John Edwards campaign is coming apart.  His rhetoric about inequality in America is becoming tiresome to the public.  He spends hundreds of dollars on personal grooming, lives in an $8,000,000 house, and the public is increasingly wondering how he could possibly relate to the poor.  Edwards is faltering and will continue to do so.

Al Gore will not be running.  He would be starting from too far behind, and he realizes that.  He does not want to become involved in a losing candidacy.     

Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, and Christopher Dodd are minor candidates with limited support, limited money, and will have little impact on the outcome.  Their campaigns for the nomination will go newhere.

Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel are more or less nuisance candidates.

Thoughts?

Well, that prediction turned out well. Wink
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« Reply #36 on: January 07, 2008, 09:56:44 pm »
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For a moment, I thought this was a new thread Tongue

Dave
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« Reply #37 on: January 07, 2008, 11:10:42 pm »
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Thank you for dragging this out from storage.

Clearly, my analysis was wrong at the time.

Needless to say, I have had to rethink my position in this case.

It has become clear now that the race for the Democtratic nomination is now a two person race, Obama and Clinton.

I do not believe that Edwards has the staying power or the money to continue in the long term.
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July 2 , 2014

President Obama has topped predecessor George W. Bush in another poll, but not one he would like.

In a new Quinnipiac University Poll, 33% named Obama the worst president since World War II, and 28% put Bush at the bottom of post-war presidents.

OBAMA WORSE THAN DUBYA!  WOW!
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« Reply #38 on: May 04, 2008, 12:39:00 pm »
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Clinton does not have a lock. I still think Obama will win in the end.

Wow. Right on.
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The idea of parodying the preceding Atlasian's postings is laughable, of course, but not for reasons one might expect.
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