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Author Topic: Bush Leads in WI, MO, & OH, According to L.A. Times  (Read 3787 times)
Hegemon
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« on: August 26, 2004, 05:10:09 pm »
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The Los Angeles Times has released 3 new battleground state polls of Wisconsin, Ohio, and Missouri.  Bush leads Kerry 49%-44% in Missouri and Wisconsin,  and 48%-44% in Ohio.

The polls were conducted August 21-24.  The polls' samples consisted of: 507 registered voters in Ohio; 580 registered voters in Missouri; and 512 registered voters in Wisconsin.

http://www.latimes.com/news/custom/timespoll/la-082604poll_lat,1,357938,print.story?coll=la-home-headlines

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ilikeverin
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« Reply #1 on: August 26, 2004, 05:25:15 pm »
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LA Times: joke.
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« Reply #2 on: August 26, 2004, 05:26:35 pm »
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ilikeverin: would not have posted if the results were reversed...
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #3 on: August 26, 2004, 05:27:03 pm »
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Quote from: Sir Ex-Governor ilikeverin, Esq. on August 26, 2004, 05:25:15 pm
LA Times: joke.

True... but they actually farm their state polls out to "whomever" so while usually a joke.. at least the punch line varries from poll to poll Smiley
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« Reply #4 on: August 26, 2004, 05:50:31 pm »
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Well this is either getting better literally by the hour, or minute, or we're seeing a string of highly suspect or inflated polls. If these are close to being right on - oh boy, the dance floor is sure set for the RNC next week.
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« Reply #5 on: August 26, 2004, 05:52:16 pm »
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LA Times may be a joke...but a pro-Bush joke?
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #6 on: August 26, 2004, 06:02:40 pm »
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Quote from: Philip on August 26, 2004, 05:52:16 pm
LA Times may be a joke...but a pro-Bush joke?

The LA Times essentially subcontracts out their state polling.

Depending who did it, it might be ok, it might be useless.

Till I get details, I have no comment one way or the other.
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« Reply #7 on: August 26, 2004, 06:26:52 pm »
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More polls for the trash can.
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« Reply #8 on: August 26, 2004, 07:41:49 pm »
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Though I like the results, I question the source.  Smiley  I'd put these ones aside until more info comes forward.
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« Reply #9 on: August 26, 2004, 09:02:08 pm »
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Quote from: bandit73 on August 26, 2004, 06:26:52 pm
More polls for the trash can.

First time we have ever agreed.  I blasted these state polls last time when some showed bad results for Bush, so I wont put any stock into ones I like from them.  
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #10 on: August 27, 2004, 10:11:58 am »
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I found the internals of the LA Times state polls.

As some of you may recall I have had the odd bad thing to say about the LA Times polling unit, which some of you disregarded as pro-bush bias.

Here are 3 pro-bush polls...

The internals of these are comically bad... these things are Zogby levels of insanity..

Use then to wrap fish, or line your bird cage...
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FireFighterForBush
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« Reply #11 on: August 27, 2004, 10:21:27 am »
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polls mean nothing! ask dewey! despite me being a republican i just have to show that polls mean nothing!
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« Reply #12 on: August 27, 2004, 11:16:05 am »
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The internals of these are comically bad... these things are Zogby levels of insanity..

Use then to wrap fish, or line your bird cage...


  Just out of curiosity, what are the internals that make these polls os bad.  Do they overstate the number of Republicans??  Understate independents etc.?


I believe Wis would be pretty tough to estimate as it has same day registration and I belive no statewide list of voters.  Only precinct level lists.  Perhaps that's why polls of that state are all over the place.

Ill Ind
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #13 on: August 27, 2004, 11:26:52 am »
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Quote from: ill ind on August 27, 2004, 11:16:05 am

The internals of these are comically bad... these things are Zogby levels of insanity..

Use then to wrap fish, or line your bird cage...


  Just out of curiosity, what are the internals that make these polls os bad.  Do they overstate the number of Republicans??  Understate independents etc.?


I believe Wis would be pretty tough to estimate as it has same day registration and I belive no statewide list of voters.  Only precinct level lists.  Perhaps that's why polls of that state are all over the place.

Ill Ind

The ration of men to women is off.

In wisconsin when you add Nader to the ballot Bush's lead drops by 3%

The ration of young to old is way off.

Populations education levels are way out

Party ID is all screwed up in Missouri,

Party breakout in Ohio is all wrong...

This thing is a disaster... Smiley
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« Reply #14 on: August 27, 2004, 12:19:41 pm »
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Actually, Bush's numbers have been falling when Nader is added in a few polls this year.  Not sure what the connection is, but I'm not sure it's a clear flaw.
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« Reply #15 on: August 27, 2004, 01:32:24 pm »
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Quote from: bandit73 on August 26, 2004, 06:26:52 pm
More polls for the trash can.

Any poll that shows Bush leading in Wyoming is trash to you.
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« Reply #16 on: August 27, 2004, 04:47:26 pm »
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On Nader, I believe I have read somewhere that Nades actually hurts Bush in Wisconsin, as opposed to everywhere else.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #17 on: August 27, 2004, 04:50:51 pm »
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Quote from: Gustaf on August 27, 2004, 04:47:26 pm
On Nader, I believe I have read somewhere that Nades actually hurts Bush in Wisconsin, as opposed to everywhere else.

Bush by 4 head to head in Wisconsis, but up only 1 with Nader... so says the LA Times.

The internals of these state polls were hilarious...  Made me long for a nice 'reliable' pollster... like Zogby....

Wink
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« Reply #18 on: August 27, 2004, 04:58:42 pm »
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Quote from: The Vorlon on August 27, 2004, 04:50:51 pm
Quote from: Gustaf on August 27, 2004, 04:47:26 pm
On Nader, I believe I have read somewhere that Nades actually hurts Bush in Wisconsin, as opposed to everywhere else.

Bush by 4 head to head in Wisconsis, but up only 1 with Nader... so says the LA Times.

The internals of these state polls were hilarious...  Made me long for a nice 'reliable' pollster... like Zogby....

Wink

Well, believe it or not, but I read this in a reliable source somewhere. Something to do with Republican-leaning indepents liking to go crazy and vote for an independent candidate...something like that. Only in Wisconsin.
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« Reply #19 on: August 27, 2004, 09:50:47 pm »
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LA Time had Bush up by 11 two months ago (6/5) when everyone else showed a dead heat, so the DECLINE for Bush should be considered.  They showed a similar skew for Bush in WI at same time and also a DECLINE from their prior prediction.   I couldn't get info. on whether it was a follow-up survey or a new sampling.  Either way, I wouldn't put a lot of faith in their numbers.  
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« Reply #20 on: August 27, 2004, 11:40:13 pm »
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It's an LA time poll.  Not worth much except for entertainment.
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