Who does your gut tell you will win this election?

[Хahar 🤔]

Obama. It feels like 2006, where you could discuss all the strategic advantages Republicans had, the gerrymandering, the money, and the fact that people "just wouldn't vote for Democrats," and weighed it against the heavy anger with Republicans and the status quo. It was unthinkable that the Democrats would do so well until a month or two before Election Day. Then it happened.

My gut tells me that Obama will win this by a nice margin, not huge, and that the idea that this race must be close, he has a natural ceiling of 278 EVs, or that the country will choose McCain as the safe choice is as salient as the idea that Democrats had no hope of recapturing the House before 2012 at the earliest because of the way people voted in the past. (Yes, that's a jab at agcatter. Sorry, couldn't resist.)

Better than I could have said it.

[Person Man]

There are really four strong common-sense possibilities to happen in 2008-


10%- Obama, once out of the primaries, will have his traditional edge with indies and about 80% of the Clintonits will come home. With numeric superiority, a 10% defection rate and a 5% lead among indes... he should win about 53 or 54% of the vote and win Florida, Ohio, Missouri and Virginia amongst the other 278 states that appear to be willing to vote for him at the moment....for a total of like 325-350.

50%- The first is that "people just won't vote for a Republican" and Obama wins all of his 278 EVs plus maybe Ohio...for 298 votes...and maybe Florida for 325 votes. Then again, Florida has a really strong GOP and just Ohio would be more likely....at any rate, it will be the democrats winning by a slim but convincing majority in a year they should have landslided in.


40%- America still feels that the democrats are a good protest vote, but still don't feel like they would be very responsible with the war. The Democrats win all of their first tier senate and House oppurtunities for a gain of 3 in the senate and 5 in the house, but still lose New Hampshire, Nevada and Pennsylvania, in 232-306/ 47-51 rout. From this point-

-The GOP eventually loses in 2012 as they feel that "people are basically republicans" and screw up while the dems nominate a candidate that is both acceptable to the whole base and independents.

If not, the democrats should continue to do well in congress.

10%- The Democrats do so badly, they begin to unravel as they see they lack enough support to be a viable national opposition party.

[Brandon H]

My gut says the choices this year will be as bad if not worse than last time. And the American people will vote for the second worst choice just so they don't get the worst choice. I don't see how most Americans can get behind either McCain or Obama (or Clinton) but I know the odds of someone else winning are extremely small.

My gut is about to throw up.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

My gut demands more painkillers.

[zorkpolitics]

Unfortunately, my gut says Obama. 

With Bush fatigue, the war, the economy, and $5.00 gas, will mean even an empty suit of no accomplishment like Obama will win, as long as he is not a Republican.

[Democratic Hawk]

All I'm saying is the fact that the McCain, the standard-bearer for a failing reactionary party, is even competitive, right now, is making my guts a little queasy

I'm of the conviction only a Democratic president can even begin to restore America's standing in the world

Dave