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Author Topic: Strategy for Hillary's campaign  (Read 2073 times)
emergingDmajority1
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« on: May 07, 2008, 03:22:08 pm »
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Now it may seem that all hope is lost, but she does have a couple of political hailmary's left.

1. Downplay NC. Don't completely write it off, but talk about how Hillary battled hard, talk about race without explicitly mentioning it. "She never had a chance", "Demographics were not in our favor, what could we do?" etc.

2. Take a media bias angle on Indiana. We WON Indiana. Obama hasn't been crowned yet, the media is eager to push her out of the race. Obama contended Indiana hard but Hillary still won. It was not as lopsided as it seemed last night.

3. Play up West Virginia and Kentucky. While these may not be huge states, they're not exactly a pair of Vermonts either. West Virginia is 37th in terms of population, Kentucky is 26th. Talk about the importance of these voters having there voices heard.

4. Make a visit to WV and KY to shore up your landslides(and they'd better come through), but pour everything you've got into Oregon. Last poll I saw out of there had Obama up by 4. If last night was Obama's unofficial crowning, then Oregon will be official. Throw a monkey wrench into things. BEAT HIM IN OREGON or get very very close...but she really has to win (and she will have a little bit of momentum coming out of West Virginia)

5. When this happens, it's media blitz time. Key words...BUYERS REMORSE. What happened to Obama, we thought he was the nominee...and yet he loses Oregon, Kentucky, and West Virginia. What does that mean, what's going on? Plant as many seeds of doubt as possible.

And just continue to bloody and weaken him as the days go by. Remember, it's about 2012 now for the most part. You want McCain to win...you want McCain to have this thing neatly wrapped up by late August, you want McCain ahead in NJ, close in NY and Conn., and with sizeable leads in California, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Let the Democratic party get nervous and start pointing fingers.

"We can't let our nominee get chosen in caucuses, by block AA voting and a small army of white, rich, college hipsters!"

Hope that it gets so bad, that huge chunks of the Democratic party start talking about replacing Obama with Hillary late in the game.
« Last Edit: May 07, 2008, 03:30:00 pm by emergingDmajority1 »Logged

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« Reply #1 on: May 07, 2008, 03:25:04 pm »
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Even if she wins OR in addition to landslides in KY and WV, she still needs a huge majority of superdelegates to break for her IIRC.
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« Reply #2 on: May 07, 2008, 03:37:36 pm »
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Strategy: withdraw, hope to still be relevant next time.
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« Reply #3 on: May 07, 2008, 03:41:46 pm »
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No. Just no.
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« Reply #4 on: May 07, 2008, 03:46:02 pm »
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Wow, uh, no.

1. Downplay NC. Don't completely write it off, but talk about how Hillary battled hard, talk about race without explicitly mentioning it. "She never had a chance", "Demographics were not in our favor, what could we do?" etc.

Which is going to look stupid considering the demographics of WV & KY.  Not that she won't do that anyway, but it will still be disingenuous and eventually even her supporters will recognize that.

2. Take a media bias angle on Indiana. We WON Indiana. Obama hasn't been crowned yet, the media is eager to push her out of the race. Obama contended Indiana hard but Hillary still won. It was not as lopsided as it seemed last night.

Media bias toward Obama for Indiana?  After such a daunting media cycle for him, and the fact that the media is going out of its way to make it look like a competitive race still.  Again, disingenuous and not enough.

3. Play up West Virginia and Kentucky. While these may not be huge states, they're not exactly a pair of Vermonts either. West Virginia is 37th in terms of population, Kentucky is 26th. Talk about the importance of these voters having there voices heard.

But not North Carolina...OK.  She can try, but for the third time, disingenuous and not enough.

4. Make a visit to WV and KY to shore up your landslides(and they'd better come through), but pour everything you've got into Oregon. Last poll I saw out of there had Obama up by 4. If last night was Obama's unofficial crowning, then Oregon will be official. Throw a monkey wrench into things. BEAT HIM IN OREGON or get very very close...but she really has to win (and she will have a little bit of momentum coming out of West Virginia)

Good luck.  Last polls in Oregon had Obama up 12, 6 and 10, though.  And that was when Obama was pretty much doing his worst.  I personally think that's surprisingly good for him relative to my knowledge of the state, but still.  She's bleeding, he isn't, and she needs to recover.  How?

5. When this happens, it's media blitz time. Key words...BUYERS REMORSE. What happened to Obama, we thought he was the nominee...and yet he loses Oregon, Kentucky, and West Virginia. What does that mean, what's going on? Plant as many seeds of doubt as possible.

She's really not in much position to win Oregon unless there is another Obama scandal and she has smooth sailing.  Otherwise the states are very likely to fall just as expected.

And just continue to bloody and weaken him as the days go by. Remember, it's about 2012 now for the most part. You want McCain to win...you want McCain to have this thing neatly wrapped up by late August, you want McCain ahead in NJ, close in NY and Conn., and with sizeable leads in California, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Let the Democratic party get nervous and start pointing fingers.

"We can't let our nominee get chosen in caucuses, by block AA voting and a small army of white, rich, college hipsters!"

Hope that it gets so bad, that huge chunks of the Democratic party start talking about replacing Obama with Hillary late in the game.

If Obama is behind in California, she'll probably have eviscerated her General chances too.  If she's this obvious, she WILL be blamed, and 2012 will be gone too.
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emergingDmajority1
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« Reply #5 on: May 07, 2008, 03:53:14 pm »
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Wow, uh, no.

1. Downplay NC. Don't completely write it off, but talk about how Hillary battled hard, talk about race without explicitly mentioning it. "She never had a chance", "Demographics were not in our favor, what could we do?" etc.

Which is going to look stupid considering the demographics of WV & KY.  Not that she won't do that anyway, but it will still be disingenuous and eventually even her supporters will recognize that.

2. Take a media bias angle on Indiana. We WON Indiana. Obama hasn't been crowned yet, the media is eager to push her out of the race. Obama contended Indiana hard but Hillary still won. It was not as lopsided as it seemed last night.

Media bias toward Obama for Indiana?  After such a daunting media cycle for him, and the fact that the media is going out of its way to make it look like a competitive race still.  Again, disingenuous and not enough.

3. Play up West Virginia and Kentucky. While these may not be huge states, they're not exactly a pair of Vermonts either. West Virginia is 37th in terms of population, Kentucky is 26th. Talk about the importance of these voters having there voices heard.

But not North Carolina...OK.  She can try, but for the third time, disingenuous and not enough.

4. Make a visit to WV and KY to shore up your landslides(and they'd better come through), but pour everything you've got into Oregon. Last poll I saw out of there had Obama up by 4. If last night was Obama's unofficial crowning, then Oregon will be official. Throw a monkey wrench into things. BEAT HIM IN OREGON or get very very close...but she really has to win (and she will have a little bit of momentum coming out of West Virginia)

Good luck.  Last polls in Oregon had Obama up 12, 6 and 10, though.  And that was when Obama was pretty much doing his worst.  I personally think that's surprisingly good for him relative to my knowledge of the state, but still.  She's bleeding, he isn't, and she needs to recover.  How?

5. When this happens, it's media blitz time. Key words...BUYERS REMORSE. What happened to Obama, we thought he was the nominee...and yet he loses Oregon, Kentucky, and West Virginia. What does that mean, what's going on? Plant as many seeds of doubt as possible.

She's really not in much position to win Oregon unless there is another Obama scandal and she has smooth sailing.  Otherwise the states are very likely to fall just as expected.

And just continue to bloody and weaken him as the days go by. Remember, it's about 2012 now for the most part. You want McCain to win...you want McCain to have this thing neatly wrapped up by late August, you want McCain ahead in NJ, close in NY and Conn., and with sizeable leads in California, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Let the Democratic party get nervous and start pointing fingers.

"We can't let our nominee get chosen in caucuses, by block AA voting and a small army of white, rich, college hipsters!"

Hope that it gets so bad, that huge chunks of the Democratic party start talking about replacing Obama with Hillary late in the game.

If Obama is behind in California, she'll probably have eviscerated her General chances too.  If she's this obvious, she WILL be blamed, and 2012 will be gone too.

Obama got to do plenty of victory dances in states where he won because he was black and (unlike Sharpton) not crazy. Hillary is entitled to celebrate WV and KY.

politics can be disingenuous. Tough beans, she has to play her hand
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« Reply #6 on: May 07, 2008, 03:55:37 pm »
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If Obama is behind in California, she'll probably have eviscerated her General chances too.  If she's this obvious, she WILL be blamed, and 2012 will be gone too.

In other words, the best of both world!

GO GO HILLARY WE <3 U (or at least various new posters from New Jersey do)
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« Reply #7 on: May 07, 2008, 03:56:26 pm »
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Obama got to do plenty of victory dances in states where he won because he was black and (unlike Sharpton) not crazy. Hillary is entitled to celebrate WV and KY.

politics can be disingenuous. Tough beans, she has to play her hand

She's going to look really bad when she argues for paying attention to West Virginia and Kentucky while ignoring North Carolina.  Besides, at this point, she needs a killer argument.  She doesn't need an uninteresting talking point that could backfire and few people care about.  That kind of thing isn't going to convince the superdelegates.  They're not that dumb.

And even if she had a killer argument, she would need an Obama explosion of epic levels, at which no one would give a flying damn about West Virginia and Kentucky.

She can play the hand she's dealt, but if it's ten-high and she can't bluff anymore, she just isn't going to win unless Obama is caught cheating or, err, shot.
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emergingDmajority1
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« Reply #8 on: May 07, 2008, 04:09:38 pm »
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Obama got to do plenty of victory dances in states where he won because he was black and (unlike Sharpton) not crazy. Hillary is entitled to celebrate WV and KY.

politics can be disingenuous. Tough beans, she has to play her hand

She's going to look really bad when she argues for paying attention to West Virginia and Kentucky while ignoring North Carolina.  Besides, at this point, she needs a killer argument.  She doesn't need an uninteresting talking point that could backfire and few people care about.  That kind of thing isn't going to convince the superdelegates.  They're not that dumb.

And even if she had a killer argument, she would need an Obama explosion of epic levels, at which no one would give a flying damn about West Virginia and Kentucky.

She can play the hand she's dealt, but if it's ten-high and she can't bluff anymore, she just isn't going to win unless Obama is caught cheating or, err, shot.

I don't know what to think with the superdelegates, they don't seem to know what they're doing.

What jumps out at me when I look at NC is Hillary winning white Democrats 62%-37% and White Independents 58%-38%

How many of those will jump ship to McCain?
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« Reply #9 on: May 07, 2008, 04:11:07 pm »
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My strategy for Sen. Clinton would be:

Your main hope is that some horrific bombshell drops in the next two weeks which would throw Sen. Obama's chances into doubt.   What's already out there isn't enough, and harping on those points won't make it so.  Instead, focus on party unity.  The pressure on you to drop out soon is immense, but you can minimize that pressure by making it seem as if the campaign will not hurt your opponent too much in the general.

Keep campaigning, but at this point focus almost entirely on your own positives and less on your opponent's negatives.  If nothing horrific happens by Oregon, drop out gracefully, and use the capital you'll gain by doing so (and by the more positive last few weeks of your campaign) to mount a campaign in 2012 or 2016.

If the bombshell does happen, the time you spent improving your own image will be much more valuable for the general election than the time you spent wrecking your opponent's. 
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« Reply #10 on: May 07, 2008, 04:12:07 pm »
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What percentage of Oregon has voted already?  It may be too late for her since the vast majority of people send their votes in fairly early (the entire election is mail-in).
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emergingDmajority1
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« Reply #11 on: May 07, 2008, 04:14:54 pm »
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The superdelegates are afraid of an AA backlash if they take the nomination from Obama for electability reasons. They are betting that the mass exodus of Hillary supporters to McCain will not happen, thinking that it's all bitterness and sabre rattling...that we'll eventually "come home" to Obama.

They are making a grave mistake.
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« Reply #12 on: May 07, 2008, 04:48:47 pm »
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Hillary cannot get the nomination on the ground, but she could get it in a back room (I said she could, not that I'd favor it).

Since Pennsylvania, it is unlikely that she could take enough delegates to come in ahead of Obama in the elected delegate category.  Getting the most popular votes is still out there, but unless it's an extremely large margin, it won't make a difference.

Basically, she could hope for Obama to be involved some scandal and that the super delegates would back away from him.  It wouldn't take much.
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« Reply #13 on: May 07, 2008, 05:10:14 pm »
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Strategy: withdraw, hope to still be relevant next time.

But she has to "withdraw" while looking strong, not beaten down.  Soon I think.
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« Reply #14 on: May 07, 2008, 05:16:14 pm »
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Hillary does not have to withdraw. Some people are acting as if she's still hanging on while losing these states 90-10 or something.

She's winning a large majority of white voters, and in general a huge chunk of the party supports her

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« Reply #15 on: May 07, 2008, 05:18:31 pm »
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Having just written herself another $6m check, her only strategy now appears to be to try and recoup as much of her investment as possible.
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Real Americans (and Big Sky Bob) demand to know.


I just slept for 11 hours, so I should need a nap today, but we'll see.
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« Reply #16 on: May 07, 2008, 05:47:39 pm »
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Wow, #5 and on down would be pretty @$$holish, even by Clinton standards.

Any Clinton supporter who would seriously vote for McCain over Obama by putting sour grapes before the best interest of the country - because Clinton and Obama are very close on almost all issues - must be very short-sighted.
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« Reply #17 on: May 07, 2008, 08:07:15 pm »
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The superdelegates are afraid of an AA backlash if they take the nomination from Obama for electability reasons. They are betting that the mass exodus of Hillary supporters to McCain will not happen, thinking that it's all bitterness and sabre rattling...that we'll eventually "come home" to Obama.

They are making a grave mistake.
Why don't you like Obama? He has almost the same policy beliefs and I see you used to like Edwards by your sig and he was complaining about how Clinton would do less than Obama would. He isn't a bad person and he certainly is better than McCain policy wise for a Clinton supporter so why vote for McCain when he will keep us in Iraq for 100 years?
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« Reply #18 on: May 07, 2008, 09:27:57 pm »
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What hackery. Obama was never going to win WV or KY. They were bound to, together with AR, be her 3 best states.
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