A slightly different theory on the way the race developed
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 05:01:56 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2008 Elections
  A slightly different theory on the way the race developed
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: A slightly different theory on the way the race developed  (Read 390 times)
elcorazon
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,402


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: May 09, 2008, 12:19:00 PM »

Early on in the campaign, it was unclear that blacks would unite behind Obama.  Some polls showed him trailing Clinton among black voters.  The race was Hillary vs. the world, and in Iowa voters opted for Obama as the best anti-Hillary.

Obama's support was widespread.  He stumbled in New Hampshire (was it the tears?, dunno), but then he had a huge victory in South Carolina.  I think this is where the race really changed. 

South Carolina was a double edged sword for Obama.  On the one hand it showed that he had incredible unified support in the black community.  This would help him in most of the south and other states with large black populations.  On the other hand, this left white voters questioning their support of him.  If he's winning ALL the black vote, then maybe I should consider voting for the white candidate.  (I actually heard someone say - blacks vote for their own - but Jews don't vote for their own).

This twinge of concern helped Hillary a bit, but then when the Wright situation broke, it solidified the fear that this guy, Obama, who looks and seems like such a regular guy is actually... black.  And he actually might be a guy who thinks of himself as a black and is concerns about "black issues". 

I really think if Obama were winning blacks 60/40, whites would have been less likely to run away from his campaign so dramatically.

Of course, whether Obama could have performed so well on Super Tuesday without big support among blacks is unclear as well.

Anyway, it's just  a theory... and probably a flawed one, at that.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.025 seconds with 12 queries.