Predicting the vote by race and religion

[© tweed]

You try it.

White: Bush 55% Kerry 44%
Black: Kerry 90% Bush 9%
Hispanic: Kerry 59% Bush 39%
Asian: Kerry 63% Kerry 35%

Catholic: Kerry 55% Bush 44%
Protestant: Bush 61% Kerry 38%
Jewish: Kerry 76% Bush 23%

[opebo]

White: Bush 58% Kerry 41%
Black: Kerry 91% Bush 8%
Hispanic: Kerry 58% Bush 40%
Asian: Kerry 62% Kerry 36%

Catholic: Kerry 52% Bush 47%
Protestant: Bush 64% Kerry 34%
Jewish: Kerry 73% Bush 25%

I can't fathom the Catholic vote and the Jewish vote is just bizzare, but oh well.

[zachman]

Those are pretty accurate.  As a Jew I think Bush will do at least that poorly, probably nearly as poor as he'll do among African-Americans. The question is will he win a majority among middle class (white voters making between $40,000 to $70,000). I think he will win this 53-45.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I disagree with including Fundamentalists as Protestants, as it gives us a bad name... and is innacurate.

[zachman]

Good point, the NH protestants will split, because they are mostly Episcopalians or Unitarians.

[jravnsbo]

National Journal had a good article in print.  I got a few free copies.  You can go to their webs tie and get a sample.  The article it had discussed how Bush has made big inroads into Jewish votes.  He only got 19% in 2000, but they expect a lot more.  Bush has taken on enemies of Israel dramatically, cut taxes and encouraged investment.

Alsoa  number of traditionally democrat fundraisers have switched to Bush.  One prime example was a guy that raised about $1 million for Gore and was in TN, election night for the party and now has raised 500,000 for Bush and is continuing to grow and encourage other traditionally democrat contributors to give to Bush and he has a number of teams doing the same.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

White: Bush 54% Kerry 45%
Black: Kerry 90% Bush 9%
Hispanic: Kerry 58% Bush 40%
Asian: ?

Catholic: Kerry 55% Bush 44%
Fundamentalist: Bush 85%  Kerry 12%
Reformed: Kerry 55% Bush 44%
Jewish: Kerry 75% Bush 24%

[zachman]

Bush will not gain among Jewish voters. I think the Jewish vote will have a stornger turnout this time, because we are angry at how Bush thinks through things on a religous basis. As a Jew, I have become a staunch opponent of religion, and I think a lot of other hardly religous Jews are like this. Israel doesn't matter much to Jewish voters. Bush will get a large portion of the rich Jewish vote which was all that he recieved in 2000.

[© tweed]

Here's how the vote went in 2000:

White: Bush 54% Gore 43%
Black: Gore 90% Bush 90%
Hispanic: Gore 61% Bush 38%
Asian: Gore 62% Bush 37%

Catholic: Gore 53% Bush 46%
Protestant: Bush 58% Gore 40%
Jewish: Gore 77% Bush 22%

Vote By annual family income in 2000:

Under 20,000: Gore 63% Bush 33%
20K to 40K: Gore 51% Bush 45%
40K to 60K: Bush 51% Gore 47%
60K to 75K: Bush 49% Gore 48%
Above 75K: Bush 52% Gore 46%

[zachman]

It doesn't look like economic standing made a huge impact on the race. Do you have the stat on college education? I think Kerry will win with those with masters degrees 62-36.

[© tweed]

It doesn't look like economic standing made a huge impact on the race. Do you have the stat on college education? I think Kerry will win with those with masters degrees 62-36.

I do.

No HS Degree: Gore 59% Bush 39%
HS Graduate: Bush 49% Gore 48%
Some College: Bush 51% Gore 45%
College Graduate: Bush 51% Gore 45%
Post-graduate degree: Gore 52% Bush 44%

[zachman]

Where do you get these statistics? I need to start having some for my postings.

[© tweed]

Where do you get these statistics? I need to start having some for my postings.

from Polling Report and CNN.

[agcatter]

Bush will increase his percentage of the Jewish vote by close to 10%.  That's one thing I'm relatively sure of.

[© tweed]

Bush will increase his percentage of the Jewish vote by close to 10%.  That's one thing I'm relatively sure of.

He would have in a Dean race, but not against Kerry.

[zachman]

Jews want to hear a secular politician, and are afraid of religion in politics.

[California Dreamer]

Lets not forget the fastest growing religion in America: Muslims

there are 1.8 million registered Muslims
In 2000 60,000 Muslims voted in Florida
80% voted for Bush!

...in the post 9/11, post Patriot Act world you can expect the Muslim vote to possibly completely switch around...this could easily give Florida back to the Democrats

[zachman]

Good point! And islamic voters are mainly in swing states.

I've said it once and I'll say it again, what block of voters has Bush gained with? Kerry inherits the complete Gore vote, and gains with the frustration voters, mainly secular America and young America.

[dazzleman]

Zachman, I think your views are a little skewed.

I wouldn't assume that Kerry inherits the whole Gore vote.  Many voted for Gore under the assumption that the peace and prosperity of the Clinton years would continue, and that national security was a low priority.  Sept. 11 changed that.  Moderate voters who are concerned about national security may not feel safe with a Democrat in 2004 as they did in 2000.

Many young people, particularly young men, are supporting Bush.  I work with a large group of young men, and I would say 75% of them are Bush supporters.  The Democratic Party has seriously alienated white men, who are held responsible under liberal Democratic dogma for all social injustices.

[zachman]

You're right about white men, but the democrats are finally catching up among young voters, a demographic Gore did poorly with. And you're right my views are skewed. NH is so separated from Middle America. We are highly secular, undiverse (but extremely tollerant), and angry at the helplesness we experienced before the Iraq war. That is the opinion of the youth vote of southern NH.

[zachman]

Actually I just read a list of exit polling results from 2000, and it said Gore won among under 30 voters. That was a surprise, and shows that there is some hope for the future. It also said, "If people were voting for vice-president, Cheney would win." That would be a weird race!

[MarkDel]

Here's my predictions on how the 2004 Vote will breakdown.

White: Bush 60%, Kerry 39%
Black: Bush 7%, Kerry 92%
Hispanic: Bush 44%, Kerry 55%
Asian: Bush 40%, Kerry 59%

Catholic: Bush 49%, Kerry 50%
Protestant: Bush 63%, Kerry 36%
Jewish: Bush 35%, Kerry 64%

Anyone who thinks Bush won't improve upon his 2000 showing in the Jewish community has been asleep for the last four years. Anti-semitism is on the rise world wide, especially in Europe, and the Democratic Party has sided with anti-war elements who have expressed hideously anti-semitic positions. Many on the political left have made excuse after excuse for the actions of Palestinian and other terrorists while they condemn Israel at every turn. Have any of you actually been to one of the anti-war rallies that were held before the Iraq War began? I was...it was sickening. There were numerous speakers who spoke in favor of the Palestinians and their violence against Israel, or as they refer to Jews, the racist Zionists who descended from pigs and monkeys...and that's the unfortunate truth about some of the stuff that went on at these anti-war rallies.

[opebo]

Lets not forget the fastest growing religion in America: Muslims

there are 1.8 million registered Muslims
In 2000 60,000 Muslims voted in Florida
80% voted for Bush!

...in the post 9/11, post Patriot Act world you can expect the Muslim vote to possibly completely switch around...this could easily give Florida back to the Democrats

I doubt Islam is growing so fast in America anymore - I suspect Ashcroft and the INS are making sure they cannot immigrate here.  The Muslim vote may have shifted against Bush, but the anti-terror vote (which to be honest is quite nervous about Muslims in America) is strongly behind Bush.  Which do you think is bigger?

[dazzleman]

You're right about white men, but the democrats are finally catching up among young voters, a demographic Gore did poorly with. And you're right my views are skewed. NH is so separated from Middle America. We are highly secular, undiverse (but extremely tollerant), and angry at the helplesness we experienced before the Iraq war. That is the opinion of the youth vote of southern NH.

Well, New Hampshire is the only northeastern state to vote for Bush, so maybe it's not as liberal as you suggest?

As far as the young people I know are concerned, most were and continue to be strong supporters of the Iraq war, not angry and helpless over it.

I wouldn't generalize onto the whole population based upon the limited group of people that you hang out with.  We all tend to hang around people who think like we do.

[© tweed]

Bush 49%, Kerry 50%

Why would Kerry have a lower percentage of the Catholic vote than Gore did?  Kerry could top 60% of the catholic vote.