Predicting the vote by race and religion

[dazzleman]

Bush 49%, Kerry 50%

Why would Kerry have a lower percentage of the Catholic vote than Gore did?  Kerry could top 60% of the catholic vote.

It depends on whether you are talking about practicing Catholics or just nominal Catholics.

Kerry will win among nominal Catholics who don't attend church regularly, but Bush will win among practicing Catholics.

[© tweed]

Bush 49%, Kerry 50%

Why would Kerry have a lower percentage of the Catholic vote than Gore did?  Kerry could top 60% of the catholic vote.

It depends on whether you are talking about practicing Catholics or just nominal Catholics.

Kerry will win among nominal Catholics who don't attend church regularly, but Bush will win among practicing Catholics.

In general, the more religious people tend to go Republican and the less religious people go Democratic.  I'm a Dem and haven't gone to chruch in 25 years.

[Gustaf]

Here's my predictions on how the 2004 Vote will breakdown.

White: Bush 60%, Kerry 39%
Black: Bush 7%, Kerry 92%
Hispanic: Bush 44%, Kerry 55%
Asian: Bush 40%, Kerry 59%

Catholic: Bush 49%, Kerry 50%
Protestant: Bush 63%, Kerry 36%
Jewish: Bush 35%, Kerry 64%

Anyone who thinks Bush won't improve upon his 2000 showing in the Jewish community has been asleep for the last four years. Anti-semitism is on the rise world wide, especially in Europe, and the Democratic Party has sided with anti-war elements who have expressed hideously anti-semitic positions. Many on the political left have made excuse after excuse for the actions of Palestinian and other terrorists while they condemn Israel at every turn. Have any of you actually been to one of the anti-war rallies that were held before the Iraq War began? I was...it was sickening. There were numerous speakers who spoke in favor of the Palestinians and their violence against Israel, or as they refer to Jews, the racist Zionists who descended from pigs and monkeys...and that's the unfortunate truth about some of the stuff that went on at these anti-war rallies.

Anti-semitism in Europe comes mostly from Muslim immigrants, and that's a fast growing group. That's the main reason for the rise of anti-semitism, that is still not as dramatic as you imply. You seemed really upset before about Europeans talking about how things are in the US, and I think you should be careful about what you say about Europe. It's not like there's a lot of anti-semitism here even now.

[Ben.]

Firstly Markdel your dame right about the antiwar protest… I was in the UK and marched with about 2 million other people in central London…and the number of radical leftists and radical leaders of the Islamic community was amazing…I doubt that anyone who went there for the first time was ever encouraged again every few meters there where these little stalls for either the Communist Party of Great Britain or some other radical group… really wired stuff and the majority of people there we fairly moderate folks who just opposed the war… great sense of camaraderie amougst us lot then you had the extreme leftwing hot heads who just pissed every one else off… it was freezing cold to…

Back to the break down of the specific groups voting… I’ll give it a pop… so here we go… these predictions are assuming that this intern story is rubbish and that Edwards is Kerry’s running mate…



Male: Bush/Cheney- 52%... Kerry/ Edwards- 43%      
Female: Bush/Cheney- 40%... Kerry/Edwards- 57%

White: Bush/Cheney- 53%... Kerry/Edwards- 43%
Black: Bush/Cheney- 7%... Kerry/Edwards- 91%
Hispanic: Bush/Cheney- 35%...Kerry/Edwards- 63%
Asian: Bush/Cheney- 36%... Kerry/Edwards- 63%

Catholic: Bush/Cheney-42%...Kerry/Edwards- 57%
Protestant: Bush/Cheney-61%...Kerry/Edwards- 36%
Jewish: Bush/Cheney- 29%... Kerry/Edwards-70%
Muslim: Bush/Cheney- 10%... Kerry/Edwards-90%

That’s my prediction assuming no relatively well organised Roy Moore run and also that some of the four million conservative Christians who stayed home last time come out and vote for Bush…  

[© tweed]

Ben's predictions look to be the most accurate.

[Ben.]

Thanks Miami…

I boosted Bush’s share with Protestants, Hispanics and Jewish voters… While Kerry improves on Gore’s performance amongst Muslims, Catholics and Women voters as well as making a slight improvement in Gore performances amongst men and blacks (Who I would have thought would been very motivated to vote… however the black vote can be very unpredictable in terms of what proportion of it actually turns out to vote on election day so we shale see…but I think that a high turnout is likely so long as the race is as competitive as I anticipate…)

[elcorazon]

If Ben's numbers are right say hello to President Kerry, probably with well over 300 electoral votes.

[zachman]

I think with Ben's numbers Bush would win. It is a difficult gap to cover if the white vote goes for Bush 53-43 like he predicted.

[elcorazon]

Male: Bush/Cheney- 52%... Kerry/ Edwards- 43%      
Female: Bush/Cheney- 40%... Kerry/Edwards- 57%


 

These are the numbers I focused on.  I don't see how Kerry could lose with 57% of the female vote and 43 % of the male vote.  If man & woman voted in equal numbers Kerry would be ahead 50%-46%.  Hard to see a scenario where he would then lose the election.  Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think women vote at least as often as men do.

[Ben.]

You’ve got a point there about the female/ male vote… I think that Kerry has factoras such as the fact that he is a decorated veterans that will boost his performance amongst male voters…however his socially liberal views will at the same time hamper him with this group…I would imagine that both these factors will cancel each other out…however and Bush will win the male vote by a margin similar to that in 2000…

With the female vote I would imagine that Kerry and Edwards (Edwards in particular, especially if you look at who voted for him in 1998 and in the primaries) will do much better amongst women than Bush and will improve on Gore’s performance however if  Kerry appears stiff and aloof then these number will go down while Bush’s will go up…

Just some thoughts…oh and the polling by some Jewish papers has shown that the voting intentions of many Jews remain the same despite Bush ‘s attempts to win them over… that said I can imagine Bush winning over a large portion of the conservative Jewish community…          

[opebo]

Male: Bush/Cheney- 52%... Kerry/ Edwards- 43%      
Female: Bush/Cheney- 40%... Kerry/Edwards- 57%


 

These are the numbers I focused on.  I don't see how Kerry could lose with 57% of the female vote and 43 % of the male vote.  If man & woman voted in equal numbers Kerry would be ahead 50%-46%.  Hard to see a scenario where he would then lose the election.  Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think women vote at least as often as men do.

I think males will vote for Bush much bigger than 52%.  Probably more like 58% to 40%.

[Ben.]

As I have nothing much to do this is how I would have see a Dean/ Graham ticket doing against Bush/Cheney…

Male: Bush- 55%: Dean – 40%  
Female: Bush- 47%: Dean- 50%    

White: Bush- 58%: Dean- 38%  
Black: Bush – 10%: Dean – 90%
Hispanic: Bush- 39%: Dean– 59%  
Asian: Bush – 38%: Dean- 61%  

Protestant: Bush- 66%: Dean 31%  
Catholic: Bush – 49%: Dean 50%
Jewish: Bush – 37%: Dean 63%
Muslim: Bush – 8%:Dean 90%

While I not sure if these predictions would toggle with this Id recon that Dean would have clear the 40% mark…however I doubt he would have made much head way beyond that in terms of the electoral college the Democrats would have done very poorly…the north east would have been carried however Maine and Pensilvania would have been tough fights for Dean as would have Michigan and Illinois and he might have had an outside shot at WI…in the west Dean would have had to fight for Oregon and California and while he could have carried the golden state I doubt he would have won Oregon however Washington would probably have been safe…    

[Ben.]

Opebo… you are suggesting that Kerry would do worse than Gore amongst male voters I would imagine that he would do similarly…however Vet vote has to be taken into consideration while his liberal social views might negate that advantage and cancel it out…I see Kerry as appealing to male voters as much if not more than Gore in 2000.

[opebo]

Opebo… you are suggesting that Kerry would do worse than Gore amongst male voters I would imagine that he would do similarly…however Vet vote has to be taken into consideration while his liberal social views might negate that advantage and cancel it out…I see Kerry as appealing to male voters as much if not more than Gore in 2000.

The war on Islamists/terror means males will vote Republican in greater numbers.  Polarization will tend to increase Bush's strength with males and Wasps, while increasong the Democrat's lead with women and blacks.

[California Dreamer]

the country is still deeply divided.

this election will come down to turnout.

And I think that the Democrats are gonna win that side. It has been reported that the thing that has Rove and company most concerned is the size of the turnouts in the Democratic primaries.

Traditionally a way to surpress turnout is negative campaigning, but will it backfire and piss of the base even more?

[opebo]

the country is still deeply divided.

this election will come down to turnout.

And I think that the Democrats are gonna win that side. It has been reported that the thing that has Rove and company most concerned is the size of the turnouts in the Democratic primaries.

Traditionally a way to surpress turnout is negative campaigning, but will it backfire and piss of the base even more?

Democrats will turn out in droves in states the Democrats have no chance of losing, so it won't make any difference there.  I think Republicans will have the advantage on turnout in places like Ohio, Missouri, Florida, and some other swing states like the upper midwest.  

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've been looking for county level maps of religious denominations for ages... thanks for the link

[minionofmidas]

Column 1 State abbreviation
Column 2 percentage Catholic
Column 3 highest county-level Catholic percentage
Column 4 lowest
Column 5 name of the most Catholic county
Column 6 Number of over 50% Catholic counties (if >0)

ME 22 43 3 Aroostook
NH 35 53 14 Coos 1
VT 24 57 2 Grand Isle 1
MA 49 66 21 Dukes 8 (out of 14)
RI 52 60 41 Bristol 3 (out of 5 - only Catholic majority state)
CT 40 49 31 Fairfield
NY 40 61 10 Clinton 8 (including Suffolk, Nassau, Staten Island, Westchester, and Erie)
NJ 40 54 12 Bergen 2
PA 31 65 1 Elk 2 (the other one is Real's Cambria)
OH 20 63 1 Putnam 2
IN 14 58 0 Dubois 1
IL 31 56 0 Clinton 2
MI 20 53 3 Delta 2
WI 32 66 8 Menominee (that's a Rez) 6
MN 26 57 7 Red Lake 1
IA 19 65 1 Dubuque 4
MO 15 52 0 Osage 1
ND 28 87 1 Rolette (another Rez) 7
SD 24 73 7 Potter 1
NE 22 81 0 Greeley 3
KS 15 53 1 Nemaha 1
DE 19 25 8 New Castle (the state only has three counties)
MD 18 30 0 Harford
DC no data
VA 9 71 0 Falls Church (an independent city) 4 (all of them cities)
WV 6 39 0 Ohio
NC 4 9 0 Wake
SC 3 9 0 Jasper
GA 5 14 0 Fayette
FL 16 28 0 Martin
KY 10 49 0 Marion
TN 3 11 0 Williamson (the least Catholic state, though it's close)
AL 3 9 0 Mobile
MS 4 29 0 Hancock
AR 4 13 0 Logan
LA 31 89 0 Vermilion 12 (the polarization between Catholic South and Protestant North is really remarkable)
OK 5 28 0 Texas
TX 21 95 0 Dimmit 14 (all along the Rio Grande, basically)
MT 19 72 0 Chouteau 3
ID 10 21 0 Minidoka
WY 16 27 1 Sweetwater
CO 17 85 0 Costilla 3
NM 37 87 9 Guadalupe 10
AZ 19 59 7 Santa Cruz 2
UT 4 14 0 Carbon
NV 17 26 0 White Pine
WA 12 32 5 Franklin
OR 10 23 0 Multnomah
CA 30 62 0 San Benito 2 (Imperial is the other one)
AK 9 n.a. n.a. (no counties)
HI 20 36 18 Kauai (Honolulu is the least Catholic)