leading 2012 GOP presidential candidates as of early 2009?--May '08 edition

[FerrisBueller86]

Why is Mitt Romney considered a leading contender?  He was the big money candidate of 2008, and he didn't make it.  General election polls showed him far behind Obama, Clinton, and Edwards.  In fact, general election polls showed him losing even in heavily Republican states like Kansas and Oklahoma.

I can't understand what Romney's base of support is.  He claimed to be a lifelong hunter at an NRA photo op when he was anything but.  He was for abortion rights before he was against it, and the change conveniently came right before he ran for president.  It doesn't help that a large part of the Republican base hates Mormons.  (I was surprised by this.  I assumed that Southern religious conservatives would feel a sense of solidarity with fellow religious conservatives.)  Also, he was the governor of Massachusetts.  Republican primary voters have been trained to hate candidates from Massachusetts for the last 20 years.  Everyone knows that Massachusetts is a lawless and corrupt state where there are drive-thru abortion clinics at every street corner, married gay couples lynch heterosexuals, and everyone has wild, orgasmic sex in the middle of the street.

Romney as a candidate was a joke.  I'm surprised he made it as far as he did.

[FerrisBueller86]

Romney can be considered the candidate of the corporate, Big Business, Chamber of Commerce-Club for Growth, RLC-wing of the Republican Party.  He is the heir to Steve Forbes.  He is the antithesis to the perceived populist Mike Huckabee.

There aren't enough Wall Street types, Paris Hilton types, and Grey Poupon types out there to win an election, except perhaps in Beverly Hills, Malibu, Manhattan, etc.  Outside places like this, the Forbes/Romney base is only a vanishingly small proportion of the population, ESPECIALLY in "flyover country".  While most Republicans would have states like Wyoming, Alaska, the Great Plains states, and Indiana in the bag, Forbes or Romney would not. 

If Steve Forbes had been the 1996 nominee instead of Bob Dole, he would have lost every state, even Utah.  Romney would win Utah but only because being Mormon gives him "favorite son" status.