leading 2012 Dem. presidential candidates as of early 2009?--May '08 edition

[Mr. Morden]

In little more than six months, right after the '08 general election, this board will be knee deep in speculation over who will run in 2012.  But why wait that long?  I've already done a few of these polls in '07, but here's the May 2008 edition.  Previously, I left it up to each poster to decide who they were predicting as nominees in 2008 when making their 2012 prediction.  But now I think it's safe to assume that 2008 will be McCain v. Obama.

So, for the purpose of this poll, assume that McCain beats Obama in November.  Now here's the question: In the spring of 2009 (just ~12 months from now), who do you think will make up the media-annointed "first tier"  of potential contenders for the 2012 Democratic nomination?

You can pick up to three names, but just to be clear, these are the people who you think the media and political insiders will regard as the initial "first tier".  It doesn't mean that they'll be leading in the early 2012 polls, just as (for example) Mitt Romney was regarded as a "first tier" candidate well before he reached double digits in the national polls.  (Likewise, George Allen would have been considered a "first tier" 2008 candidate in late 2005 / early 2006, but in his case his candidacy didn't go anywhere, for obvious reasons.)

Here are the results of this poll from March 2007:

(name, followed by # of votes)

Obama 7
Warner 7
Spitzer 3
Bayh 2
Henry 2

and the top choices in June 2007 (when many more people voted):

Obama 16
Warner 11
Henry 6
Spitzer 5
Sebelius 4

and the top choices in October 2007:

Warner 19
Obama 17
Bayh 13
Henry 8
Schweitzer 7

[Lief 🗽]

Sibelius, Obama and Clinton.

[Frodo]

Mark Warner, Brad Henry, and Russ Feingold. 

[Josh/Devilman88]

Other

[Joe Biden 2020]

Bayh, Henry, Mark Warner

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Feingold, Henry, and Warner.

[SPC]

Clinton and Obama will still have animosity toward each other from the last election, and as a result, both will run for the purpose to spite the other. Warner also runs.

[War on Want]

Feingold, Obama, and Warner

[Mr. Morden]

So people are thinking that Obama is going to be an early frontrunner for the 2012 nomination after just having lost in '08?  Maybe if he loses the electoral college despite winning the popular vote, he could maintain viability as a future presidential contender, a la Al Gore.  But otherwise, I don't see it happening.

[Meeker]

If Obama loses, Clinton would be extremely difficult to defeat for the 2012 nod

[Хahar 🤔]

So people are thinking that Obama is going to be an early frontrunner for the 2012 nomination after just having lost in '08?  Maybe if he loses the electoral college despite winning the popular vote, he could maintain viability as a future presidential contender, a la Al Gore.  But otherwise, I don't see it happening.

I have no reason to believe he couldn't pull a Dewey.
Obama, Clinton, Warner

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I have no reason to believe he couldn't pull a Dewey.

The times have changed.  Losers don't have a chance to win primaries if they've already lost once.

[Хahar 🤔]

I have no reason to believe he couldn't pull a Dewey.

The times have changed.  Losers don't have a chance to win primaries if they've already lost once.

Bob Dole?

[Mr. Morden]

I have no reason to believe he couldn't pull a Dewey.

The times have changed.  Losers don't have a chance to win primaries if they've already lost once.

Bob Dole?

Bob Dole was never the GOP nominee before 1996.  Unless you're talking about losing in the primaries and then running again, which happens all the time.  It's obviously different if you're the nominee and lose in the general election.  Then people look at you as a loser, who they're not going to turn to in a subsequent election.  Just look at how well the idea of John Kerry 2008 went over.

[7,052,770]

Mark Begich, Ronnie Musgrove, Tom Allen apparently.

[Bay Ridge, Bklyn! Born and Bred]

Women don't age well.   In 2012, Hillary will be a shriveled-up hag.

If Dems lose in 2008, Bayh and Warner.

[7,052,770]

Women don't age well.   In 2012, Hillary will be a shriveled-up hag.

If Dems lose in 2008, Bayh and Warner.

Why are you saying if?  I thought Obama had a 0% chance of winning...

[jokerman]

Clinton, Warner, Schweitzer

If Obama happens to lose this year he's not getting renominated in 4 years.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Other: Some person we are not thinking of. Most likely a Women.

[Mr. Morden]

Other: Some person we are not thinking of. Most likely a Women.

Well, we're only talking about who the leading candidates will be a year from now.  Presumably, all of the early frontrunners will be people we've heard of now, and there are only so many possibilities.  If you have any specific suggestions, let me know, and I can add that name to the next poll.

[Bluegrass Cruiser 420]

Other: Some person we are not thinking of. Most likely a Women.

What do you mean "a women".  Are you saying that two are more women might try to run for the Dem nomination as some sort of co-president team. 

You know come to think of it, ii in this scenario they were a couple of really hot lesbians who made out every time they made a speech they certainly could win a majority of the male vote; while losing the support of the feminists (who would see as sexually degrading towards women)!

[JSojourner]

Clinton, Bayh and Schweitzer are my best guesses.  But I could see Obama trying again.  Somehow, I think Warner won't run.  I have a hunch the Senate is as high as he can go and he knows it. 

Sherrod Brown's a good guess, too.  I suspect the Democratic Primary field would include Clinton, Bayh and Schweitzer for sure.  With Brown, possibly Bill Nelson, Mark Pryor, Joe Manchin and one or two others on the outside, looking in.

And really, isn't Sheldon Whitehouse almost obligated to run with a last name like that?

[Kevinstat]

Mark Begich, Ronnie Musgrove, Tom Allen apparently.

Tom Allen?  For President?  Where did you here that?  I've heard that he's spoken before some pretty far left groups, although I heard that on a right-wing Maine web site.  Still, I'm doubt a Tom Allen Presidential candidacy would ever take off.  He's like Barack Obama in where he lies on the political spectrum, but without the charisma (also without the ties to as controversial people although some of his Senate campaign contributions have come from doners whose donations were somewhat connected to a fugitive from justice; Allen rejected the fugitive's donations but not the other donations somehow connected to this fugitive).

[Orser67]

Does any woman really have a shot at the nomination as long as Clinton is running?