Is the Republican South Starting to Crack?

[Frodo]

The author of this article thinks so (as I do), and here are three paragraphs that especially caught my attention:

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We could see the emergence of a much larger, stronger, and more influential moderately-conservative Blue Dog Caucus than before. 

[Kaine for Senate '18]

The author of this article thinks so (as I do), and here are three paragraphs that especially caught my attention:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

We could see the emergence of a much larger, stronger, and more influential moderately-conservative Blue Dog Caucus than before. 

If this happens, it would be great for the Party.  If more moderates are elected from the House, than more moderates can move into the Senate, and eventually, the nominees for President will increasingly be moderate Southerners.

[Padfoot]

I definitely think that we've begun seeing some cracks in the Republican South.  The area that should especially be watched is the Atlantic Coast IMO.  That seems to be where most of the Northerners are moving to.

[TeePee4Prez]

Oh I think the majority-minority districting concept has created extremes in BOTH parties allowing for blacktivists and staunch Republicans.  And it's not just the South, but the Midwest and Northeast as well.  It seemed that in 2002 this scenario almost played out for the GOP in Southeastern Pennsylvania in that you have 2 far left Dems beholden to no one and every district around the city custom made for the GOP.  Thankfully moderate Democrats eventually prevailed in districts once pegged for a GOP takeover by 2006, but still look at places like Columbus and even Cincinnatti.  There should be at least one D district in both areas.  Same could be said for parts of NJ as well being that all the Dems are thrown into NJ 1 yet the other 2 South Jersey districts are only marginally GOP.

[7,052,770]

Mississippi will be Democratic by 2016.

[ottermax]

End gerrymandered districts now!

Anyways, I think the Atlantic coast will start turning more Democratic, while more Appalachian areas will turn more Republican. I see that the party is turning more upper-class/suburbanite, which will work in metro Atlanta, North Carolina, and Virginia, but hurt in the Inland South.

[MasterJedi]

Mississippi will be Democratic by 2016.

Keep dreaming.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Mississippi will be Democratic by 2016.

Only if the messiah really is Obama, and the commonly accepted calendar marks time as B.O. and A.O., and you are referring to 2,016 years AO.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Virginia, unlike Mississippi, will be Democratic, or at least leaning Democratic, by 2016.

[Josh/Devilman88]

NC, VA well be toss-up/lean Democratic after this election.

[Mr.Phips]

This is certainly possible, but Democrats have to get smarter about redistricting in the South than in 1992.  They started to get smarter in 2002 in Maryland. North Carolina and also in Georgia by making the black majority districts 50%-55% black rather than 70% black.  They need to continue this strategy in Alabama, Florida(unlikely they will control this), Louisiana, and Mississippi in 2012.  AL-02 could be made much more fertile for Democrats if the 62% black AL-07 could transfer a good number of its black belt counties to it in exchange for heavily Republican and surburban Autuga and Elmore counties.  In LA-02, a good number of African Americans could be transfered to LA-06 to make that much safer for Don Cayaoux.  In MS-03, many African American delta counties could be transfered to MS-01 to help Travis Childers.  This would help Democrats in the South overwhelmingly and could even give them back a majority of the delegation. 

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

NC, VA well be toss-up/lean Democratic after this election.

NC is going to leapfrog left after this election and catch Virginia and go even further? When will this madness stop? 2016 will be when it's a tossup, not 2012. VA might be tossup in 2012.

[Josh/Devilman88]

NC, VA well be toss-up/lean Democratic after this election.

NC is going to leapfrog left after this election and catch Virginia and go even further? When will this madness stop? 2016 will be when it's a tossup, not 2012. VA might be tossup in 2012.

NC is the only state in the south to move leftward while the country moved rightward. So if the country moves leftward, NC will move much more leftward then the Nation, Right?

[Frodo]

NC, VA well be toss-up/lean Democratic after this election.

NC is going to leapfrog left after this election and catch Virginia and go even further? When will this madness stop? 2016 will be when it's a tossup, not 2012. VA might be tossup in 2012.

NC is the only state in the south to move leftward while the country moved rightward. So if the country moves leftward, NC will move much more leftward then the Nation, Right?

I didn't realize Harry had a twin-brother in North Carolina. 

[The Mikado]

How's Louisiana's Congressional map going to look after redistricting, considering they'll lose a district and the changes of population within the state (growth in Baton Rouge, shrinkage in New Orleans)?

[Mr.Phips]

How's Louisiana's Congressional map going to look after redistricting, considering they'll lose a district and the changes of population within the state (growth in Baton Rouge, shrinkage in New Orleans)?

It will probably lose one seat and LA-02 will have to expand outward to pickup some Conservative areas.  Instead of being 64% black, it will probably have to be around 55% black. 

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

NC, VA well be toss-up/lean Democratic after this election.

NC is going to leapfrog left after this election and catch Virginia and go even further? When will this madness stop? 2016 will be when it's a tossup, not 2012. VA might be tossup in 2012.

NC is the only state in the south to move leftward while the country moved rightward. So if the country moves leftward, NC will move much more leftward then the Nation, Right?

Virginia was about +6% GOP in 2004 and +8% in 2000. NC was +11 GOP in 2004 and +13 in 2000. I never denied NC was moving left, but +11% more GOP and +8% or so in 2008 doesn't mean it will be a tossup/lean Democrat in 2012 unless it LEAPS left much faster than Virginia, and NC lacks a Fairfax county like area that is growing fast with tons of liberals. Wake County is growing, but it isn't as liberal and isn't as big.

[Meeker]

Every state will be Democratic by 2020. In fact, the changing demographics and their trend lines indicate that by 2024 some states will be more than 120% Democratic.

Duh.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This is certainly possible, but Democrats have to get smarter about redistricting in the South than in 1992.  They started to get smarter in 2002 in Maryland. North Carolina and also in Georgia by making the black majority districts 50%-55% black rather than 70% black. 

I believe that the correct word to describe the gerrymandering of those states is not "smart" but is in fact "evil".

[DownWithTheLeft]

No, or at least not until election results back up any of these theories

Hell, NJ could go Republican for all we know, maybe even MA

[War on Want]

It might lead to more Blue Dogs getting elected but it will not lead to the South really being much more Democratic.

[Smash255]

NC, VA well be toss-up/lean Democratic after this election.

NC is going to leapfrog left after this election and catch Virginia and go even further? When will this madness stop? 2016 will be when it's a tossup, not 2012. VA might be tossup in 2012.

NC is the only state in the south to move leftward while the country moved rightward. So if the country moves leftward, NC will move much more leftward then the Nation, Right?

Virginia was about +6% GOP in 2004 and +8% in 2000. NC was +11 GOP in 2004 and +13 in 2000. I never denied NC was moving left, but +11% more GOP and +8% or so in 2008 doesn't mean it will be a tossup/lean Democrat in 2012 unless it LEAPS left much faster than Virginia, and NC lacks a Fairfax county like area that is growing fast with tons of liberals. Wake County is growing, but it isn't as liberal and isn't as big.

I think NC has a decent chance of being in the toss up category by 2012.   Its not just Wake County and the rest of the Research Triangle that is moving left, but Buncombe (Asheville) Guilford (Greensboro) and Mecklenburg (Charlotte) which has moved left.  Both Wake and Mecklenburg will be very close or beyond 1 million people by 2012.

[Josh/Devilman88]

NC, VA well be toss-up/lean Democratic after this election.

NC is going to leapfrog left after this election and catch Virginia and go even further? When will this madness stop? 2016 will be when it's a tossup, not 2012. VA might be tossup in 2012.

NC is the only state in the south to move leftward while the country moved rightward. So if the country moves leftward, NC will move much more leftward then the Nation, Right?

Virginia was about +6% GOP in 2004 and +8% in 2000. NC was +11 GOP in 2004 and +13 in 2000. I never denied NC was moving left, but +11% more GOP and +8% or so in 2008 doesn't mean it will be a tossup/lean Democrat in 2012 unless it LEAPS left much faster than Virginia, and NC lacks a Fairfax county like area that is growing fast with tons of liberals. Wake County is growing, but it isn't as liberal and isn't as big.

I think NC has a decent chance of being in the toss up category by 2012.   Its not just Wake County and the rest of the Research Triangle that is moving left, but Buncombe (Asheville) Guilford (Greensboro) and Mecklenburg (Charlotte) which has moved left.  Both Wake and Mecklenburg will be very close or beyond 1 million people by 2012.

Wake and Mecklenburg is almost at 1 million right now. Guilford is almost at a half of million right now.

[auburntiger]

No it's not yet, and like DWTL said, we'll have to wait until this election ends to see if the theory holds up.

Take NC for example. So technically Bush's margin of victory in NC went from 56.03% down to 56.02%. Part of the reason he didn't increase his performance there was because Edwards was on the ticket, and he probably influenced the ticket by a couple of points. Had he not been on the ticket, NC would've most likely been a 57-43 victory. But North Carolina is FAR from being a tossup-lean Dem state. In the last week of the 2004 election, polls showed Bush winning by 8-9 points when he ended up winning by 12.43%, ever so slightly less than his 12.83% margin of victory in 2000. North Carolina is the Republican New Jersey

VA is also another example where Bush was polling in mid-single digits (4-6%) but ended up winning nationally by 8.20%

FL is another one.


So until we have some concrete evidence on the NATIONAL level for presidential elections, you can't really assume the solid South is starting to crack.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

No it's not yet, and like DWTL said, we'll have to wait until this election ends to see if the theory holds up.

Take NC for example. So technically Bush's margin of victory in NC went from 56.03% down to 56.02%. Part of the reason he didn't increase his performance there was because Edwards was on the ticket, and he probably influenced the ticket by a couple of points. Had he not been on the ticket, NC would've most likely been a 57-43 victory. But North Carolina is FAR from being a tossup-lean Dem state. In the last week of the 2004 election, polls showed Bush winning by 8-9 points when he ended up winning by 12.43%, ever so slightly less than his 12.83% margin of victory in 2000. North Carolina is the Republican New Jersey

VA is also another example where Bush was polling in mid-single digits (4-6%) but ended up winning nationally by 8.20%

FL is another one.


So until we have some concrete evidence on the NATIONAL level for presidential elections, you can't really assume the solid South is starting to crack.

And polls are showing that the South will still be solid GOP territory come November, despite a horrid atmosphere for the GOP. VA, while Democrats like to think it will be a  tossup, lean Dem state, has been solidly behind McCain by 2-12% with the one exception of a poll showing Obama up in early February during his peak. NC will not be Democrat this year, nor in 2012, baring a major landslide or a popular southern moderate (Mark Warner) running. I really wish Josh would quit making useless assertions that it is flipping this year and we are all wrong about it. I'm almost tempted to make a big deal over it and a big ass of myself when McCain carried it. But I tend to like Josh, so I probably won't.