Is the Republican South Starting to Crack?

[Josh/Devilman88]

No it's not yet, and like DWTL said, we'll have to wait until this election ends to see if the theory holds up.

Take NC for example. So technically Bush's margin of victory in NC went from 56.03% down to 56.02%. Part of the reason he didn't increase his performance there was because Edwards was on the ticket, and he probably influenced the ticket by a couple of points. Had he not been on the ticket, NC would've most likely been a 57-43 victory. But North Carolina is FAR from being a tossup-lean Dem state. In the last week of the 2004 election, polls showed Bush winning by 8-9 points when he ended up winning by 12.43%, ever so slightly less than his 12.83% margin of victory in 2000. North Carolina is the Republican New Jersey

VA is also another example where Bush was polling in mid-single digits (4-6%) but ended up winning nationally by 8.20%

FL is another one.


So until we have some concrete evidence on the NATIONAL level for presidential elections, you can't really assume the solid South is starting to crack.

And polls are showing that the South will still be solid GOP territory come November, despite a horrid atmosphere for the GOP. VA, while Democrats like to think it will be a  tossup, lean Dem state, has been solidly behind McCain by 2-12% with the one exception of a poll showing Obama up in early February during his peak. NC will not be Democrat this year, nor in 2012, baring a major landslide or a popular southern moderate (Mark Warner) running. I really wish Josh would quit making useless assertions that it is flipping this year and we are all wrong about it. I'm almost tempted to make a big deal over it and a big ass of myself when McCain carried it. But I tend to like Josh, so I probably won't.

I think Obama could carry NC yes, but do I really think it will happen no. Do I think it will be closer then what people and polls are saying yes.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I think Obama will lose Virginia 48%-51% and North Carolina 47%-52% to McCain this year, but if he is re-elected in 2012 he could probably win both. 

[Josh/Devilman88]

I think Obama will lose Virginia 48%-51% and North Carolina 47%-52% to McCain this year, but if he is re-elected in 2012 he could probably win both. 

That is what I am trying to say. But no one listens to me.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I think Obama will lose Virginia 48%-51% and North Carolina 47%-52% to McCain this year, but if he is re-elected in 2012 he could probably win both. 

That is what I am trying to say. But no one listens to me.

Uh, because both of you are wrong? Virginia may be within three if it's a big Obama win, but in no way will NC be that close.

Sure, it could change if Obama's national margin is big enough, but not now.

Also, stop getting ahead of yourself getting excited about his reelection already.

[Josh/Devilman88]

I think Obama will lose Virginia 48%-51% and North Carolina 47%-52% to McCain this year, but if he is re-elected in 2012 he could probably win both. 

That is what I am trying to say. But no one listens to me.

Uh, because both of you are wrong? Virginia may be within three if it's a big Obama win, but in no way will NC be that close.

Sure, it could change if Obama's national margin is big enough, but not now.

Also, stop getting ahead of yourself getting excited about his reelection already.

What make you so sure that Obama can't come withn in 5% of McCain?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I think Obama will lose Virginia 48%-51% and North Carolina 47%-52% to McCain this year, but if he is re-elected in 2012 he could probably win both. 

That is what I am trying to say. But no one listens to me.

Uh, because both of you are wrong? Virginia may be within three if it's a big Obama win, but in no way will NC be that close.

Sure, it could change if Obama's national margin is big enough, but not now.

Also, stop getting ahead of yourself getting excited about his reelection already.

What make you so sure that Obama can't come withn in 5% of McCain?

In North Carolina? He will not if the election is within 3%. If Obama wins by 5-6% nationally, NC could be within 3% or so. It's probably 8% or so more Republican than the average.

[Adlai Stevenson]

My Southern predictions -

VIRGINIA -
51% (R) McCain
48% (D) Obama


NORTH CAROLINA -
52% (R) McCain
47% (D) Obama


SOUTH CAROLINA -
54% (R) McCain
45% (D) Obama


TENNESSEE -
57% (R) McCain
42% (D) Obama


ARKANSAS -
58% (R) McCain
40% (D) Obama


LOUISIANA -
57% (R) McCain
42% (D) Obama


TEXAS -
56% (R) McCain
42% (D) Obama


MISSISSIPPI -
55% (R) McCain
43% (D) Obama


ALABAMA -
62% (R) McCain
36% (D) Obama


GEORGIA -
55% (R) McCain
43% (D) Obama


FLORIDA -
52% (R) McCain
47% (D) Obama



Obama will do well in Virginia, which will be the closest Southern state in 2008.  He will also significantly improve on John Kerry's performance in North Carolina and South Carolina where black turnout will aid him.  He will be the first Democrat to get over 40% of the vote in Texas since 1996.  Alabama should be a virtual replay of 2004, with uglier voting patterns - black turnout will increase but the Democratic share of the white vote should collapse.  I do not think Obama can win Florida, and he will do well to come as close as Kerry did there - especially if McCain possibly chooses Governor Charlie Crist as his running mate.  Black turnout in Georgia and Mississippi will allow Obama do well there, getting 43% apiece.  Tennessee and Louisiana should see similar results to 2004, if not slightly higher for McCain than Bush.  Arkansas should swing hard against the Democrats - alongside Kentucky and West Virginia.  The Clinton factor should hurt Obama in AR, furthermore there is not significant enough black support for him to really raise or compete with Kerry's 44%.  Obama should be lucky to get over 40% in Arkansas really. 

[Gustaf]

As far as I can tell, no. In the wave year of 2006, the South hardly moved at all. The Democrats picked up Virginia on a fluke (macaca, etc) by the narrowest of margins, that Mahoney seat and I think 2 others (?). They failed at open seat elections in Tennessee and Florida. 2004 was of course absolutely brutal for the Democrats in the South. I think they've fallen about as low as they can get there, on the bright side, but the places where they should look to expand are not really in the South, but in the West.

[user60521]

Actually Mississippi is close if not already a swing state.  Mississippi's 1st congressional district is now held by a democrat that makes half of mississppi democratic.  And if you look at the senatorial polls the challenging democrat is ahead by a heathy margin.  Mississippi may not vote for Obama in November, but the Republicans will definately have an uphill battle reclaiming Mississippi as a safe state.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Actually Mississippi is close if not already a swing state.  Mississippi's 1st congressional district is now held by a democrat that makes half of mississppi democratic.  And if you look at the senatorial polls the challenging democrat is ahead by a heathy margin.  Mississippi may not vote for Obama in November, but the Republicans will definately have an uphill battle reclaiming Mississippi as a safe state.

Hehe, Mississippi Democratic Party isn't like the DNC, it is more a dixiecrat party down in Old Miss. The only southern state that will swing toward the Democrats this year is VA and NC.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Actually Mississippi is close if not already a swing state.  Mississippi's 1st congressional district is now held by a democrat that makes half of mississppi democratic.  And if you look at the senatorial polls the challenging democrat is ahead by a heathy margin.  Mississippi may not vote for Obama in November, but the Republicans will definately have an uphill battle reclaiming Mississippi as a safe state.

That's absolutely ludicrous. As long as the GOP is getting 70% of the white vote in Mississippi, it won't be a swing state nationally anytime soon. The south is different in that there are a lot of blue dogs that are registered Democrats and may vote Dem in local elections, but never in national ones. See Arkansas, West Virginia, Kentucky...

[Josh/Devilman88]

Actually Mississippi is close if not already a swing state.  Mississippi's 1st congressional district is now held by a democrat that makes half of mississppi democratic.  And if you look at the senatorial polls the challenging democrat is ahead by a heathy margin.  Mississippi may not vote for Obama in November, but the Republicans will definately have an uphill battle reclaiming Mississippi as a safe state.

That's absolutely ludicrous. As long as the GOP is getting 70% of the white vote in Mississippi, it won't be a swing state nationally anytime soon. The south is different in that there are a lot of blue dogs that are registered Democrats and may vote Dem in local elections, but never in national ones. See Arkansas, West Virginia, Kentucky...

That is what I was saying too. Again the only states that will move toward the Democrats are NC and VA. And the both will be in Play very soon.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Well yes. But that's not because of the blue dogs, but more of the DC suburbs and Research Triangle and the northern transplants. Georgia and Florida are moving right despite growing as well. In 8 years, NC and VA will be in play, SC could be as well if the Charleston area keeps growing, but I doubt any of the deep south states will be in play for a long time.

[JSojourner]

Well yes. But that's not because of the blue dogs, but more of the DC suburbs and Research Triangle and the northern transplants. Georgia and Florida are moving right despite growing as well. In 8 years, NC and VA will be in play, SC could be as well if the Charleston area keeps growing, but I doubt any of the deep south states will be in play for a long time.

I pretty much agree.  I think Virginia is closer to being in play for Democrats now.  But probably still out of reach.  2012 more likely, IF Democrats nominate a palatable candidate.  North Carolina will come around eventually.

I would think South Carolina and Georgia are going to STAY right.  I am not sure they can move much farther over.  I think Tennessee and Kentucky are just about done transitioning to solid R states and will remain so for the foreseeable future.  Florida is the one I can't quite figure.  I agree that it's moving right, but I am not sure what it is.  Is it that the conservative Cuban population is growing?  Aren't just as many northeastern liberals settling in Florida for retirement?  The seniors are dying off, that is probably a factor.  I know that the panhandle and central Florida are solid Republican.  I'm trying to figure out how Florida is different from, say, North Carolina.  Lots of northern transplants.  But one is slowly inching left and one is slowly moving right.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Well yes. But that's not because of the blue dogs, but more of the DC suburbs and Research Triangle and the northern transplants. Georgia and Florida are moving right despite growing as well. In 8 years, NC and VA will be in play, SC could be as well if the Charleston area keeps growing, but I doubt any of the deep south states will be in play for a long time.

I pretty much agree.  I think Virginia is closer to being in play for Democrats now.  But probably still out of reach.  2012 more likely, IF Democrats nominate a palatable candidate.  North Carolina will come around eventually.

I would think South Carolina and Georgia are going to STAY right.  I am not sure they can move much farther over.  I think Tennessee and Kentucky are just about done transitioning to solid R states and will remain so for the foreseeable future.  Florida is the one I can't quite figure.  I agree that it's moving right, but I am not sure what it is.  Is it that the conservative Cuban population is growing?  Aren't just as many northeastern liberals settling in Florida for retirement?  The seniors are dying off, that is probably a factor.  I know that the panhandle and central Florida are solid Republican.  I'm trying to figure out how Florida is different from, say, North Carolina.  Lots of northern transplants.  But one is slowly inching left and one is slowly moving right.

In FL you have older white Democrats moving down. In NC you have younger white/black Democrats moving down.

[Albus Dumbledore]

I see a split between the coastal south from Virginia down to Florida developing in the long run with the lower south changing significantly less. The coastal south, naturally is the part voting for the more liberal party while the gulf/interior south keeps on voting for the more conservative one. Note that I don't say democrat or republican in any of this since I see since I see some party... changes in the near future.

[Josh/Devilman88]

I think VA, NC and maybe GA will start or keep on moving leftward. While FL and the rest of the deep south stay the same or move right.

[Bluegrass Cruiser 420]

I see a split between the coastal south from Virginia down to Florida developing in the long run with the lower south changing significantly less. The coastal south, naturally is the part voting for the more liberal party while the gulf/interior south keeps on voting for the more conservative one. Note that I don't say democrat or republican in any of this since I see since I see some party... changes in the near future.

You mean that Democrats will become the traditional Marxian socialist party while the GOP becomes the Fabian-style socialist party.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I think VA, NC and maybe GA will start or keep on moving leftward. While FL and the rest of the deep south stay the same or move right.

Georgia, by all observations, is actually trending RIGHT. Outside of Atlanta, there really isn't anymore Democrat areas. North Carolina and Virginia will continue to move left, and South Carolina to a certain extent, as the Charleston area continues to attract a lot of young people who tend to be more liberal. The rest of the south will remain pretty solidly behind the GOP.

[Josh/Devilman88]

I think VA, NC and maybe GA will start or keep on moving leftward. While FL and the rest of the deep south stay the same or move right.

Georgia, by all observations, is actually trending RIGHT. Outside of Atlanta, there really isn't anymore Democrat areas. North Carolina and Virginia will continue to move left, and South Carolina to a certain extent, as the Charleston area continues to attract a lot of young people who tend to be more liberal. The rest of the south will remain pretty solidly behind the GOP.

I'm not saying GA is trending left right now, but I do think in the next few election cycle we will see it start to trend left, but not that far left to flip the state in a president race. I see it because like NC is right now. Lean Republican in presidental races but toss-up to lean Democratic at the state level.

[Albus Dumbledore]

I see a split between the coastal south from Virginia down to Florida developing in the long run with the lower south changing significantly less. The coastal south, naturally is the part voting for the more liberal party while the gulf/interior south keeps on voting for the more conservative one. Note that I don't say democrat or republican in any of this since I see since I see some party... changes in the near future.

You mean that Democrats will become the traditional Marxian socialist party while the GOP becomes the Fabian-style socialist party.

Dems are moving to a more elite party. Republicans are moving more populist. Give it 30-50 years and the Republicans could become the more liberal party.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I think VA, NC and maybe GA will start or keep on moving leftward. While FL and the rest of the deep south stay the same or move right.

Georgia, by all observations, is actually trending RIGHT. Outside of Atlanta, there really isn't anymore Democrat areas. North Carolina and Virginia will continue to move left, and South Carolina to a certain extent, as the Charleston area continues to attract a lot of young people who tend to be more liberal. The rest of the south will remain pretty solidly behind the GOP.

I'm not saying GA is trending left right now, but I do think in the next few election cycle we will see it start to trend left, but not that far left to flip the state in a president race. I see it because like NC is right now. Lean Republican in presidental races but toss-up to lean Democratic at the state level.

North Carolina has always beenDemocrat at the state level in almost forever. It didnt just trend that way. Even when the state was nationally strong Republican, it still had Democrats in charge statewide. I dont know much about Georgia local politics, so I can't comment on them.

[Josh/Devilman88]

I think VA, NC and maybe GA will start or keep on moving leftward. While FL and the rest of the deep south stay the same or move right.

Georgia, by all observations, is actually trending RIGHT. Outside of Atlanta, there really isn't anymore Democrat areas. North Carolina and Virginia will continue to move left, and South Carolina to a certain extent, as the Charleston area continues to attract a lot of young people who tend to be more liberal. The rest of the south will remain pretty solidly behind the GOP.

I'm not saying GA is trending left right now, but I do think in the next few election cycle we will see it start to trend left, but not that far left to flip the state in a president race. I see it because like NC is right now. Lean Republican in presidental races but toss-up to lean Democratic at the state level.

North Carolina has always beenDemocrat at the state level in almost forever. It didnt just trend that way. Even when the state was nationally strong Republican, it still had Democrats in charge statewide. I dont know much about Georgia local politics, so I can't comment on them.

I never said NC trend that way, I know NC has always been that way. I said that is how I think GA will become.

[pbrower2a]

I think VA, NC and maybe GA will start or keep on moving leftward. While FL and the rest of the deep south stay the same or move right.

Georgia, by all observations, is actually trending RIGHT. Outside of Atlanta, there really isn't anymore Democrat areas. North Carolina and Virginia will continue to move left, and South Carolina to a certain extent, as the Charleston area continues to attract a lot of young people who tend to be more liberal. The rest of the south will remain pretty solidly behind the GOP.

I'm not saying GA is trending left right now, but I do think in the next few election cycle we will see it start to trend left, but not that far left to flip the state in a president race. I see it because like NC is right now. Lean Republican in presidental races but toss-up to lean Democratic at the state level.

North Carolina has always beenDemocrat at the state level in almost forever. It didnt just trend that way. Even when the state was nationally strong Republican, it still had Democrats in charge statewide. I dont know much about Georgia local politics, so I can't comment on them.

Perhaps people outside of North Carolina have assumed that North Carolina is a very right-wing state because of the late Senator Jesse Helms.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I don't think that we will see another era of moderate southerner democrats. The Carter-Clinton period is definitely ended. Finally, we will see liberal northerners taking the control of the party.
The Democratic party will be a true progressive party.