Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 24, 2014, 07:24:20 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  2008 Elections
| | |-+  2008 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | | |-+  Hilarious poll out of PA 4
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: Hilarious poll out of PA 4  (Read 3836 times)
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52505


View Profile
« on: May 12, 2008, 10:22:13 am »
Ignore

Congressman Altmire's campaign released a poll on Thursday showing him up 56%-40%. The poll was conducted...in February.

http://www.timesonline.com/articles/2008/05/12/opinion/jd_prose/doc48266c9764b61755689283.txt
Logged


Never any doubt.
Mr.Phips
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4988


View Profile
« Reply #1 on: May 12, 2008, 12:01:04 pm »
Ignore

It will be closer than this, but I think Altmire will win.  He is a good fit for this district and hasnt really done anything to warrant his defeat. 
Logged
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52505


View Profile
« Reply #2 on: May 12, 2008, 02:48:34 pm »
Ignore

It will be closer than this, but I think Altmire will win.  He is a good fit for this district and hasnt really done anything to warrant his defeat. 

Obama being at the top of the ticket doesn't help him. I have no idea why he'd endorse him in the primary.
Logged


Never any doubt.
Mr.Phips
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4988


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: May 12, 2008, 02:58:49 pm »
Ignore

It will be closer than this, but I think Altmire will win.  He is a good fit for this district and hasnt really done anything to warrant his defeat. 

Obama being at the top of the ticket doesn't help him. I have no idea why he'd endorse him in the primary.

He didnt endorse him.  Anyway, I think Clinton would be just as bad or even worse for Altmire as she would bring out many of the Republicans in Alleghany county where Altmire needs to hold Hart to a draw to win districtwide. 
Logged
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52505


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: May 12, 2008, 03:01:40 pm »
Ignore

It will be closer than this, but I think Altmire will win.  He is a good fit for this district and hasnt really done anything to warrant his defeat. 

Obama being at the top of the ticket doesn't help him. I have no idea why he'd endorse him in the primary.

He didnt endorse him.  Anyway, I think Clinton would be just as bad or even worse for Altmire as she would bring out many of the Republicans in Alleghany county where Altmire needs to hold Hart to a draw to win districtwide. 

Ok, he didn't officially endorse him but didn't he make some strong hints that he wanted Obama?
Logged


Never any doubt.
Mr.Phips
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4988


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: May 12, 2008, 03:22:56 pm »
Ignore

It will be closer than this, but I think Altmire will win.  He is a good fit for this district and hasnt really done anything to warrant his defeat. 

Obama being at the top of the ticket doesn't help him. I have no idea why he'd endorse him in the primary.

He didnt endorse him.  Anyway, I think Clinton would be just as bad or even worse for Altmire as she would bring out many of the Republicans in Alleghany county where Altmire needs to hold Hart to a draw to win districtwide. 

Ok, he didn't officially endorse him but didn't he make some strong hints that he wanted Obama?

He seems pretty neutral.  All he said was that he was reluctant to endorse Clinton because she would bring out an avalanche of Republican voters in his district. 
Logged
Conan
conan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3155


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: May 12, 2008, 04:21:43 pm »
Ignore

The only thing distinct about this poll is that it was conducted in February and released now.
Logged

incredibly specific types of post-punk music
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 72769
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: May 12, 2008, 05:17:04 pm »
Ignore

It will be closer than this, but I think Altmire will win.  He is a good fit for this district and hasnt really done anything to warrant his defeat. 

Obama being at the top of the ticket doesn't help him. I have no idea why he'd endorse him in the primary.

He didnt endorse him.  Anyway, I think Clinton would be just as bad or even worse for Altmire as she would bring out many of the Republicans in Alleghany county where Altmire needs to hold Hart to a draw to win districtwide. 

Ok, he didn't officially endorse him but didn't he make some strong hints that he wanted Obama?

He seems pretty neutral.  All he said was that he was reluctant to endorse Clinton because she would bring out an avalanche of Republican voters in his district. 

Which is something Phil is missing. Hillary is hardly beloved in that district. She may be more popular among Democrats, but most of the Democrats would vote for whoever the Dem nominee is even if they greatly preferred Hillary in the primary. However Hillary would bring out the GOP much stronger against him.
Logged




01/05/2004-01/10/2014
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52505


View Profile
« Reply #8 on: May 12, 2008, 05:57:06 pm »
Ignore

It will be closer than this, but I think Altmire will win.  He is a good fit for this district and hasnt really done anything to warrant his defeat. 

Obama being at the top of the ticket doesn't help him. I have no idea why he'd endorse him in the primary.

He didnt endorse him.  Anyway, I think Clinton would be just as bad or even worse for Altmire as she would bring out many of the Republicans in Alleghany county where Altmire needs to hold Hart to a draw to win districtwide. 

Ok, he didn't officially endorse him but didn't he make some strong hints that he wanted Obama?

He seems pretty neutral.  All he said was that he was reluctant to endorse Clinton because she would bring out an avalanche of Republican voters in his district. 

Which is something Phil is missing. Hillary is hardly beloved in that district. She may be more popular among Democrats, but most of the Democrats would vote for whoever the Dem nominee is even if they greatly preferred Hillary in the primary. However Hillary would bring out the GOP much stronger against him.

And guess what? Obama will hardly be beloved in that district and I wouldn't be so such that Dems out that way "would vote for whoever the Dem nominee is."

The only thing distinct about this poll is that it was conducted in February and released now.

Which is my point. It just proves it's ridiculous. It's the first sign that Altmire 2008 will be amateurish.
Logged


Never any doubt.
incredibly specific types of post-punk music
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 72769
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: May 12, 2008, 06:02:39 pm »
Ignore

It will be closer than this, but I think Altmire will win.  He is a good fit for this district and hasnt really done anything to warrant his defeat. 

Obama being at the top of the ticket doesn't help him. I have no idea why he'd endorse him in the primary.

He didnt endorse him.  Anyway, I think Clinton would be just as bad or even worse for Altmire as she would bring out many of the Republicans in Alleghany county where Altmire needs to hold Hart to a draw to win districtwide. 

Ok, he didn't officially endorse him but didn't he make some strong hints that he wanted Obama?

He seems pretty neutral.  All he said was that he was reluctant to endorse Clinton because she would bring out an avalanche of Republican voters in his district. 

Which is something Phil is missing. Hillary is hardly beloved in that district. She may be more popular among Democrats, but most of the Democrats would vote for whoever the Dem nominee is even if they greatly preferred Hillary in the primary. However Hillary would bring out the GOP much stronger against him.

And guess what? Obama will hardly be beloved in that district and I wouldn't be so such that Dems out that way "would vote for whoever the Dem nominee is."

Just about everywhere the vast majority of Democrats will vote for whoever the Dem nominee is. Even 75% of Democrats is the vast majority.
Logged




01/05/2004-01/10/2014
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52505


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: May 12, 2008, 06:05:53 pm »
Ignore



Just about everywhere the vast majority of Democrats will vote for whoever the Dem nominee is. Even 75% of Democrats is the vast majority.

I believe 88% of Dems voted for Kerry in 2004. That's a vast majority. Now let's say 82% of Dems vote for Obama in the General. Of course that's still a vast majority but that's a significantly lower percentage and Dems will feel that.
Logged


Never any doubt.
MarkWarner08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5846


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: May 12, 2008, 06:28:00 pm »
Ignore

This could be another district where McCain's coattails help the GOP challenger. Considering how flukish Altmire's win was, some voters may still think of Hart as the incumbent.
Logged

Sibboleth
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 57024
Saint Helena


View Profile WWW
« Reply #12 on: May 12, 2008, 07:13:40 pm »
Ignore

This could be another district where McCain's coattails help the GOP challenger. Considering how flukish Altmire's win was, some voters may still think of Hart as the incumbent.

It wasn't a fluke; it was firmly a part of the wider trend.
Logged

"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
MarkWarner08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5846


View Profile
« Reply #13 on: May 12, 2008, 07:27:43 pm »
Ignore

This could be another district where McCain's coattails help the GOP challenger. Considering how flukish Altmire's win was, some voters may still think of Hart as the incumbent.

It wasn't a fluke; it was firmly a part of the wider trend.
How many people predicted an Altmire win in 2006? IIRC, very few folks correctly called this race. I predicted an Altmire win, but I also said Gerlach would lose.  As Keystone Phil and others would say, Hart lost because of her own lackadaisical approach to campaigning. After routing Democrats by huge margins in every House race (including her open seat win in the more Democratic version of this is CD), Hart probably assumed that she had solidified her hold on this district. Consequently, she refrained from running negative ads till the last few weeks of the campaign.

If Hart had followed Gerlach's lead and defined her opponent early on, say, after a nearly broke Altmire barely won the Democratic primary, she would've held this seat. Gerlach, Wilson, Pryce, Ferguson, and Reichert all proved in 2006 that scorched earth campaigns work.

Finally, the very fact  that Hart, the consummate campaigner, was taking drumming lessons instead of fundraising during an election year is quite flukish.
Logged

Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52505


View Profile
« Reply #14 on: May 12, 2008, 07:37:20 pm »
Ignore


How many people predicted an Altmire win in 2006? IIRC, very few folks correctly called this race. I predicted an Altmire win, but I also said Gerlach would lose.  As Keystone Phil and others would say, Hart lost because of her own lackadaisical approach to campaigning. After routing Democrats by huge margins in every House race (including her open seat win in the more Democratic version of this is CD), Hart probably assumed that she had solidified her hold on this district. Consequently, she refrained from running negative ads till the last few weeks of the campaign.

If Hart had followed Gerlach's lead and defined her opponent early on, say, after a nearly broke Altmire barely won the Democratic primary, she would've held this seat. Gerlach, Wilson, Pryce, Ferguson, and Reichert all proved in 2006 that scorched earth campaigns work.

Finally, the very fact  that Hart, the consummate campaigner, was taking drumming lessons instead of fundraising during an election year is quite flukish.

Hart got lazy and, at the time, I couldn't blame her. She is a personally popular figure out that way but polling started to show that she was vulnerable because of the terrible year for the GOP (especially for the PA GOP). She didn't care. This time will be different.

I'd say that this seat is a tossup/slight lean for Hart now. It's going to be a tough race and very close, in the end. Altmire is a good fit for the district but, as Warner08 said earlier, I wonder how many people even know that Hart lost.
Logged


Never any doubt.
Spaghetti Cat
Driedapples
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1038
United States


View Profile
« Reply #15 on: May 12, 2008, 08:47:29 pm »
Ignore

I'm very excited about this race because it's local and will end up being so close.  I plan to do some voluteer work for Hart over the summer.
Logged

only back for the worldcup
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58775
India


View Profile
« Reply #16 on: May 13, 2008, 04:26:54 am »
Ignore

If Hart had followed Gerlach's lead and defined her opponent early on, say, after a nearly broke Altmire barely won the Democratic primary, she would've held this seat. Gerlach, Wilson, Pryce, Ferguson, and Reichert all proved in 2006 that scorched earth campaigns work.
Felix Grucci will be glad to hear that. I would also note that Wilson, Pryce and Ferguson are all retiring now.
Logged

"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
Sibboleth
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 57024
Saint Helena


View Profile WWW
« Reply #17 on: May 13, 2008, 03:29:21 pm »
Ignore

How many people predicted an Altmire win in 2006?

I had my eye on it from the early summer onwards Smiley
Logged

"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
MarkWarner08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5846


View Profile
« Reply #18 on: May 13, 2008, 06:04:45 pm »
Ignore

If Hart had followed Gerlach's lead and defined her opponent early on, say, after a nearly broke Altmire barely won the Democratic primary, she would've held this seat. Gerlach, Wilson, Pryce, Ferguson, and Reichert all proved in 2006 that scorched earth campaigns work.
Felix Grucci will be glad to hear that. I would also note that Wilson, Pryce and Ferguson are all retiring now.
Lewis, we both know that Grucci's ads were filled with scurrilous allegations and backfired due to that fact.  Attacking Burner's inexperience,  Madrid's lack of composure under fire, Kilroy, Murphy, and Stender for supporting higher taxes may have been overly negative and intellectually dishonest but those attacks weren't mendacious.
Logged

MarkWarner08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5846


View Profile
« Reply #19 on: May 13, 2008, 06:05:09 pm »
Ignore

How many people predicted an Altmire win in 2006?

I had my eye on it from the early summer onwards Smiley
You should move to America and work for Charlie Cook!
Logged

Adlai Stevenson
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3438
United Kingdom


View Profile WWW
« Reply #20 on: May 14, 2008, 02:07:50 pm »
Ignore

Did Altmire defeat Hart by 54%-45% in 2006? 
Logged

[img/http://blog.pennlive.com/thrive/2007/08/WINEHOUSE1.jpgimg]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FpJQq8MoR-g
only back for the worldcup
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58775
India


View Profile
« Reply #21 on: May 14, 2008, 02:09:16 pm »
Ignore

Did Altmire defeat Hart by 54%-45% in 2006? 
More like 52-48.

And if it were 54-45 I'd have laughed the Reps off the thread for thinking they could retake it. But  52-48 is something else.
Logged

"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
Mr.Phips
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4988


View Profile
« Reply #22 on: May 14, 2008, 03:26:44 pm »
Ignore

Did Altmire defeat Hart by 54%-45% in 2006? 
More like 52-48.

And if it were 54-45 I'd have laughed the Reps off the thread for thinking they could retake it. But  52-48 is something else.

Yeah, the general rule is that if the race was anything more than 51%-49% against the incumbent, a rematch usually doesnt pan out. 
Logged
incredibly specific types of post-punk music
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 72769
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #23 on: May 15, 2008, 02:08:47 am »
Ignore

What I found hilarious actually was Altmire's ads. Not that they were hilarious in themselves (they were quite good of course) but how they completely contradicted what Phil said at the time. They were standard 2006 anti-Republican ad, but the one I remember went like this "Melissa Hart keeps voting with Rick Santorum and George Bush..." *picture of Hart flies up next to pictures of Santorum and Bush as voiceover goes over a laundry list of Hart votes*. And this is in a part of the state which at the time Phil and soulty kept telling us Santorum was absolutely beloved. But hey, no one's going to argue with success.

Anyway, if Altmire can run the same type of campaign, he should have little problems. Just run contrast ads between their voting records (Basic "Melissa Hart kept voting against raising the minimum wage, Jason Altmire helped increase it, Jason Altmire is helping get out of Iraq, Melissa Hart kept voting to "stay the course", etc. type stuff.)
Logged




01/05/2004-01/10/2014
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52505


View Profile
« Reply #24 on: May 15, 2008, 11:21:08 am »
Ignore

What I found hilarious actually was Altmire's ads. Not that they were hilarious in themselves (they were quite good of course) but how they completely contradicted what Phil said at the time. They were standard 2006 anti-Republican ad, but the one I remember went like this "Melissa Hart keeps voting with Rick Santorum and George Bush..." *picture of Hart flies up next to pictures of Santorum and Bush as voiceover goes over a laundry list of Hart votes*. And this is in a part of the state which at the time Phil and soulty kept telling us Santorum was absolutely beloved. But hey, no one's going to argue with success.

I never argued that he was beloved out west especially not in 2006. I said he'd perform better out there compared to most of the rest of the state. Yet another sad little Zach attempt at picking on others. When you want to actually want to stay on topic and discuss the subject at hand, let us know. Otherwise, you really should seriously leave.
Logged


Never any doubt.
Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines