Dole/Haig vs. Clinton/Gore-1988

[GPORTER]

Bob Dole defeats George H. W. Bush for the GOP nomination. Doel picks former secertary of state Alexander Haig as his running mate. Bush fully endorses Dole, as does Reagan.

Bill Clinton decides to run for the democratic nomination. Clinton defeats the lead opponents for the nomination. His behind the scenes sex life is not made a very big deal. Clinton selects Al Gore as his running mate. Offering a younger generation of leadership to the voters. Al of the other democratic opponents endorse Clinton for president.

Discuss with maps.

[GPORTER]

Dole/Haig: 292 electoral votes
Clinton/Gore: 246 electoral votes
270 needed to wn

Republicans were off to a scare beginning in the east. They carried upper new england for a most good time. But, as they got down into the lower east coast, New Jersey was a shock to many republicans. The South was split between Clinton and Dole. Florida was a relief for the republicans. In the north, Clinton won a majority of the vote in the northern region. The western region was good for the republicans and sealed a good victory for the republicans.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

William J. Clinton/Albert A. Gore (D): 274 EV, 49.7% of the PV
Robert J. Dole/Alexander Haig (R): 264 EV, 49.5% of the PV
Others (Socialists, Libertarians, etc): 0 EV, 0.8% of the PV

Governor Bill Clinton of Arkansas narrowly defeats Senator Bob Dole to become 41st President of the United States. Clinton manages to take a significant portion of the South which helps guide Clinton to victory. However, Dole does perform better in the West than Bush in RL considering he has more experience to help out with the Farming Crisis than Bush did in RL.

Mr. Porter may I ask some questions about your map, why do the Republicans manage to win Michigan? Whilst I do know that Bush Senior defeated Governor Dukakis by 8 points in RL, in 1996 Clinton defeated Dole signficantly in Michigan by some 13 points with Perot in the race.

You may be asking, why is this hack mentioning 1996, this has nothing to do with 1988, I'm just stressing out that Clinton would have made Michigan moreso competitve in this scenario than in the RL election. Likewise with California and Kentucky in this election, the latter which was suffering the costs of the farming crisis.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Clinton wins, 297-241

[GPORTER]

William J. Clinton/Albert A. Gore (D): 274 EV, 49.7% of the PV
Robert J. Dole/Alexander Haig (R): 264 EV, 49.5% of the PV
Others (Socialists, Libertarians, etc): 0 EV, 0.8% of the PV

Governor Bill Clinton of Arkansas narrowly defeats Senator Bob Dole to become 41st President of the United States. Clinton manages to take a significant portion of the South which helps guide Clinton to victory. However, Dole does perform better in the West than Bush in RL considering he has more experience to help out with the Farming Crisis than Bush did in RL.

Mr. Porter may I ask some questions about your map, why do the Republicans manage to win Michigan? Whilst I do know that Bush Senior defeated Governor Dukakis by 8 points in RL, in 1996 Clinton defeated Dole signficantly in Michigan by some 13 points with Perot in the race.

You may be asking, why is this hack mentioning 1996, this has nothing to do with 1988, I'm just stressing out that Clinton would have made Michigan moreso competitve in this scenario than in the RL election. Likewise with California and Kentucky in this election, the latter which was suffering the costs of the farming crisis.

William J. Clinton/Albert A. Gore (D): 274 EV, 49.7% of the PV
Robert J. Dole/Alexander Haig (R): 264 EV, 49.5% of the PV
Others (Socialists, Libertarians, etc): 0 EV, 0.8% of the PV

Governor Bill Clinton of Arkansas narrowly defeats Senator Bob Dole to become 41st President of the United States. Clinton manages to take a significant portion of the South which helps guide Clinton to victory. However, Dole does perform better in the West than Bush in RL considering he has more experience to help out with the Farming Crisis than Bush did in RL.

Mr. Porter may I ask some questions about your map, why do the Republicans manage to win Michigan? Whilst I do know that Bush Senior defeated Governor Dukakis by 8 points in RL, in 1996 Clinton defeated Dole signficantly in Michigan by some 13 points with Perot in the race.

You may be asking, why is this hack mentioning 1996, this has nothing to do with 1988, I'm just stressing out that Clinton would have made Michigan moreso competitve in this scenario than in the RL election. Likewise with California and Kentucky in this election, the latter which was suffering the costs of the farming crisis.

I would be glad to answer your questions and any other questions that anyone else may have.

On the Michigan question, this was a close state in this scenario and it was one that kept the republicans safe from defeat in this scenario. Lets not look at 1996, but at 1992. Where Perot did much better than he did in 1996 and where he took more of the vote from the republicans than he did in 1996. An unpopular republican incumbent President lost a second term that year, as you and I well know. Bush performed well in Michigan in 1992 even while being unpopular and with a third party candidate spliting the republican vote. He lost the state that year by only a little more than seven points. So if an unpopular incumbent republican can perform like that in a state that was trending democrat with a third party candidate splitting the republican vote, I think that Dole would carry the state. Now on to your other questions, lets talk about California. Yes, the state was trending democrat and yes it was close in real life, but I think that Dole would still carry the state. This would be the last time that a republican would carry that state in a long time, but I think that Dole still would have pulled off a squeaker of a victory in that state and would have taken the election with it. There were still enough hard core republicans in that state and with the endorsement of a popular republican president from the state of California, I think that Dole carries the state by a narrow margin. Kentucky, it was close also in this campaign, but Bush still carried the state in real life even with the farm crisis. Bush carried the state by twelve points with a farming crsis. The state still goes republican today by substantial margins and I think that it will continue to do so.

I hope that this explains your questions. If you have any other questions, please feel free to post them here. Thank you.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Gporter, Clinton still won Michigan by 7%.  I doubt he could lose that much, especially to the subpar candidate Dole.  Besides, 1996 is a perfect analogy, since it was three out of the four people were the same.

[GPORTER]

Gporter, Clinton still won Michigan by 7%.  I doubt he could lose that much, especially to the subpar candidate Dole.  Besides, 1996 is a perfect analogy, since it was three out of the four people were the same.

Yes, but in 1988 the country was more GOP than it was in 1996. So, Michigan was more republican in 1988 than it was in 1996. Just look at the national trend.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Gporter, Clinton still won Michigan by 7%.  I doubt he could lose that much, especially to the subpar candidate Dole.  Besides, 1996 is a perfect analogy, since it was three out of the four people were the same.

Yes, but in 1988 the country was more GOP than it was in 1996. So, Michigan was more republican in 1988 than it was in 1996. Just look at the national trend.

Duh.  But still, I think Clinton would win the state; Dole is a very weak candidate, and Clinton has the charisma, and appeal to blue collar workers.

[HappyWarrior]

gporter, stop using Perot as an excuse in anything involving the late eighties and early nineties, he was a change candidate and took votes away from Democrats rather than Republicans.  Thank you, that is all.

[Хahar 🤔]

gporter, stop using Perot as an excuse in anything involving the late eighties and early nineties, he was a change candidate and took votes away from Democrats rather than and Republicans.  Thank you, that is all.

Perfect.

[Lief 🗽]

Dole 324 - Clinton 214

I just don't see any decent Republican losing in 1988. Clinton is able to do better in the South and connect better than Dukakis with farmers being hit hard by the farm crisis, but he still comes up short.