Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
September 02, 2014, 04:23:55 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  2008 Elections
| | |-+  2008 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls
| | | |-+  OR PrimD: Survey USA: Obama increases lead in OR
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: OR PrimD: Survey USA: Obama increases lead in OR  (Read 6963 times)
Wiz from Wis in Mass
Wiz in Wis
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1188


Political Matrix
E: -4.00, S: -5.57

View Profile WWW
« on: May 12, 2008, 10:55:55 pm »
Ignore

New Poll: Oregon President by Survey USA on 2008-05-11

Summary:
Obama:
54%
Clinton:
43%
Other:
1%
Undecided:
2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 33783
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #1 on: May 12, 2008, 11:34:59 pm »
Ignore

Im a little bit concerned about the early voters (almost half of the sample), where they are tied. But as long as Obama maintains a 20% edge among election day voters it doesnt really matter.
Logged
Grad Students are the Worst
Alcon
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29662
United States
View Profile
« Reply #2 on: May 12, 2008, 11:41:38 pm »
Ignore

Im a little bit concerned about the early voters (almost half of the sample), where they are tied. But as long as Obama maintains a 20% edge among election day voters it doesnt really matter.

There are no election day voters in Oregon Smiley

Well, I guess there technically could be...but you know what I mean!

This number should probably concern Obama folks a little, especially considering his underperformance in he WA primary.  We'll see.
« Last Edit: May 12, 2008, 11:45:39 pm by Alcon »Logged

n/c
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 33783
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #3 on: May 12, 2008, 11:45:00 pm »
Ignore

Im a little bit concerned about the early voters (almost half of the sample), where they are tied. But as long as Obama maintains a 20% edge among election day voters it doesnt really matter.

There are no election day voters in Oregon Smiley

Well, I guess there technically could be...but you know what I mean!

Ahh, yeah its Oregon ... Tongue Im still confident Obama wins by 5-10% ...
Logged
black and white band photos
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 72107
Sweden


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: May 12, 2008, 11:47:20 pm »
Ignore

Im a little bit concerned about the early voters (almost half of the sample), where they are tied. But as long as Obama maintains a 20% edge among election day voters it doesnt really matter.

There are no election day voters in Oregon Smiley

Well, I guess there technically could be...but you know what I mean!

This number should probably concern Obama folks a little, especially considering his underperformance in he WA primary.  We'll see.

I think there will be more interest in a primary that actually matters than one that didn't.
Logged




01/05/2004-01/10/2014
Grad Students are the Worst
Alcon
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29662
United States
View Profile
« Reply #5 on: May 12, 2008, 11:48:32 pm »
Ignore

Im a little bit concerned about the early voters (almost half of the sample), where they are tied. But as long as Obama maintains a 20% edge among election day voters it doesnt really matter.

There are no election day voters in Oregon Smiley

Well, I guess there technically could be...but you know what I mean!

This number should probably concern Obama folks a little, especially considering his underperformance in he WA primary.  We'll see.

I think there will be more interest in a primary that actually matters than one that didn't.

The Oregon media has been weirdly disinterested in this election.  I guess it depends on how complacent voters are getting.  I wonder how blitzed he ad market is getting.  Obama would be wise to put up his "send in your ballots now" ads soon.

I wasn't saying it's very meaningful, just that it would be better news if he were leading by 20 in the other subgroup.
« Last Edit: May 12, 2008, 11:51:20 pm by Alcon »Logged

n/c
Sbane
sbane
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13449


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: May 13, 2008, 10:19:30 am »
Ignore

Check out the difference between the voters who have already voted and those who are likely to. One explanation could be young people and the other could be a bump from NC and IN. Also more than half the people have already voted.
Logged
Grad Students are the Worst
Alcon
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29662
United States
View Profile
« Reply #7 on: May 13, 2008, 10:50:18 am »
Ignore

Check out the difference between the voters who have already voted and those who are likely to. One explanation could be young people and the other could be a bump from NC and IN. Also more than half the people have already voted.

I think you're mixing up the two columns.
Logged

n/c
Sbane
sbane
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13449


View Profile
« Reply #8 on: May 13, 2008, 03:09:42 pm »
Ignore

Check out the difference between the voters who have already voted and those who are likely to. One explanation could be young people and the other could be a bump from NC and IN. Also more than half the people have already voted.

I think you're mixing up the two columns.

Yeah my bad only 43% of people have voted. But that is so damn close, I really wonder if it is representative. But Obama cleans up among likely voters, I guess the ones who havent mailed theirs yet? This is a weird primary for sure.
Logged
Corporate Worship
Eraserhead
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 38497
United States


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: May 13, 2008, 03:41:30 pm »
Ignore

Clinton is leading big among conservatives. Congrats to her on that front. We know they are a major force in OR's Democratic primaries.
Logged

Erc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4685
Slovenia


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: May 17, 2008, 08:28:42 am »
Ignore

Im a little bit concerned about the early voters (almost half of the sample), where they are tied. But as long as Obama maintains a 20% edge among election day voters it doesnt really matter.

There are no election day voters in Oregon Smiley

Well, I guess there technically could be...but you know what I mean!

This number should probably concern Obama folks a little, especially considering his underperformance in he WA primary.  We'll see.

You can deliver the ballots in person up until Tuesday evening, right?
Logged
Senator-elect Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13148
Australia


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: May 17, 2008, 08:33:44 am »
Ignore

I actually think Clinton's position will have opposite effects on the electorates.

I think Clinton's supporters will become more firm in Kentucky to make a point, as opposed to her support in Oregon sliding.
Logged


Dogma is a comfortable thing, it saves you from thought - Sir Robert Menzies
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32037
United States


View Profile
« Reply #12 on: May 18, 2008, 08:18:37 pm »
Ignore

Obama needs at least a 5 point lead, and I think he'll get it.
Logged

J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
black and white band photos
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 72107
Sweden


View Profile
« Reply #13 on: May 19, 2008, 12:13:36 am »
Ignore

Obama needs at least a 5 point lead, and I think he'll get it.

Wow, lowering the bar again.

Yes, I too think Obama will win by more than 5 points, but why does he "need" it? He's going to clinch the pledged delegate majority no matter what and there's barely anything left to vote. The superdelegates aren't going to swarm to Hillary in droves because she managed to hold Obama to a 4 point victory in Oregon.
Logged




01/05/2004-01/10/2014
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32037
United States


View Profile
« Reply #14 on: May 19, 2008, 02:00:32 pm »
Ignore

Obama needs at least a 5 point lead, and I think he'll get it.

Wow, lowering the bar again.

Yes, I too think Obama will win by more than 5 points, but why does he "need" it? He's going to clinch the pledged delegate majority no matter what and there's barely anything left to vote. The superdelegates aren't going to swarm to Hillary in droves because she managed to hold Obama to a 4 point victory in Oregon.

The super delegates won't move for a bare victory, especially after WV and if there is a blowup in KY.

If it is not a decisive win, the super delegates will not be decisive.

I am, however, happy to note the amount of bar lowering I've done for Obama.
Logged

J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
black and white band photos
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 72107
Sweden


View Profile
« Reply #15 on: May 19, 2008, 02:04:56 pm »
Ignore

Obama needs at least a 5 point lead, and I think he'll get it.

Wow, lowering the bar again.

Yes, I too think Obama will win by more than 5 points, but why does he "need" it? He's going to clinch the pledged delegate majority no matter what and there's barely anything left to vote. The superdelegates aren't going to swarm to Hillary in droves because she managed to hold Obama to a 4 point victory in Oregon.

The super delegates won't move for a bare victory, especially after WV and if there is a blowup in KY.

If it is not a decisive win, the super delegates will not be decisive.

I am, however, happy to note the amount of bar lowering I've done for Obama.

Obama will win a majority of pledged delegates on May 20. Many superdelegates have already pledged to support whoever wins the majority of pledged delegates, so he gets a good chunk, no matter what. After that and the remaining primaries he only needs about 30 or so more, which he'll certainly get before Hillary gets her hundreds that she needs.
Logged




01/05/2004-01/10/2014
black and white band photos
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 72107
Sweden


View Profile
« Reply #16 on: May 19, 2008, 02:42:27 pm »
Ignore

With these numbers Obama probably wins every district in the state.
Logged




01/05/2004-01/10/2014
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines