OR PrimD: Public Policy Polling: Obama almost 20 points ahead of Clinton
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Author Topic: OR PrimD: Public Policy Polling: Obama almost 20 points ahead of Clinton  (Read 5318 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: May 19, 2008, 02:13:16 PM »
New Poll: Oregon President by Public Policy Polling on 2008-05-18

Summary:
Obama:
58%
Clinton:
39%
Other:
0%
Undecided:
3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Alcon
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« Reply #1 on: May 19, 2008, 02:18:42 PM »
Among the 74% who report already having cast a ballot, Obama has 59%.
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #2 on: May 19, 2008, 02:35:32 PM »
pretty much as ive predicted...obama will crack 60.
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Verily
Cuivienen
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« Reply #3 on: May 19, 2008, 02:45:38 PM »
2% of those who already voted are "completely undecided".
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Alcon
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« Reply #4 on: May 19, 2008, 02:51:38 PM »
Quote from: Verily on May 19, 2008, 02:45:38 PM
2% of those who already voted are "completely undecided".

My favorite part of early voting is those crosstabs.

I think SUSA once had a poll where early voters were more likely to be undecided than those who hadn't cast ballots.
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #5 on: May 19, 2008, 04:01:28 PM »
But Obama can't win white voterz becuz he is BLACK and MUSLIM! OH NOES!
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #6 on: May 19, 2008, 06:17:50 PM »
Quote from: TheresNoMoney on May 19, 2008, 04:01:28 PM
But Obama can't win white voterz becuz he is BLACK and MUSLIM! OH NOES!
All whites in Oregon are latte liberals who don't need a president. Duh.
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kevinatcausa
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« Reply #7 on: May 20, 2008, 10:13:21 AM »
« Edited: May 20, 2008, 10:16:17 AM by kevinatcausa »
The undecideds aren't actually too strange when you consider the question being asked. 

If you mailed in your ballot several weeks ago, you might be having doubts about your choice by now.  Since the question asked "If the primary were today, who would you vote for", that might lead a person who has already voted to answer 'undecided', or even to give the other candidate if they had since changed their mind. 

On the other hand, the age crosstabs are just bizarre:

>65: Clinton up 51-42
46-65: Obama up 56-38
30-45: Obama up 68-25 (!)
18-29: Obama up 53-40. 

Somehow, I doubt that Obama is pulling West Virginia size margins in the 30-45 group while simultaneously doing worse among the 18-29 group than the 46-65 group. 
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Verily
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« Reply #8 on: May 20, 2008, 12:09:38 PM »
The age crosstabs are fine. You're talking samples of about 200 voters each; the fact that they somewhat resemble reality is good enough.
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