OR PrimD: Survey USA: Obama increases lead in OR

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I´m a little bit concerned about the early voters (almost half of the sample), where they are tied. But as long as Obama maintains a 20% edge among election day voters it doesn´t really matter.

There are no election day voters in Oregon

Well, I guess there technically could be...but you know what I mean!

This number should probably concern Obama folks a little, especially considering his underperformance in he WA primary.  We'll see.

I think there will be more interest in a primary that actually matters than one that didn't.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obama needs at least a 5 point lead, and I think he'll get it.

Wow, lowering the bar again.

Yes, I too think Obama will win by more than 5 points, but why does he "need" it? He's going to clinch the pledged delegate majority no matter what and there's barely anything left to vote. The superdelegates aren't going to swarm to Hillary in droves because she managed to hold Obama to a 4 point victory in Oregon.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obama needs at least a 5 point lead, and I think he'll get it.

Wow, lowering the bar again.

Yes, I too think Obama will win by more than 5 points, but why does he "need" it? He's going to clinch the pledged delegate majority no matter what and there's barely anything left to vote. The superdelegates aren't going to swarm to Hillary in droves because she managed to hold Obama to a 4 point victory in Oregon.

The super delegates won't move for a bare victory, especially after WV and if there is a blowup in KY.

If it is not a decisive win, the super delegates will not be decisive.

I am, however, happy to note the amount of bar lowering I've done for Obama.

Obama will win a majority of pledged delegates on May 20. Many superdelegates have already pledged to support whoever wins the majority of pledged delegates, so he gets a good chunk, no matter what. After that and the remaining primaries he only needs about 30 or so more, which he'll certainly get before Hillary gets her hundreds that she needs.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

With these numbers Obama probably wins every district in the state.