2008 Irish Lisbon Treaty Referendum.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Might as well put this up: it has been officially called for Thursday, June 12th.

Discuss.

(Yeah I'm too lazy to add much more right now.)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Maps of previous referenda....







Demographics and etc to come... (I wonder whether we are using the old constituencies or the new redrawn ones, this is Ireland so I wouldn't trust it to be the latter no matter how much sense it would make. Of course constituency results matter jot in the great scheme of things. Jas, you know?)

[Bono]

C'mon guys, do one for the team and save the rest of us whose politicians are too afraid (not that yours had a choice, obviously, but you still got the chance). Think of how happy Gustaf and I will be with your 'no' vote.

[Јas]

I'm still undecided.

I am though changing my address on the electoral register as I won't be able to travel back on a Thursday to vote.

(I wonder whether we are using the old constituencies or the new redrawn ones, this is Ireland so I wouldn't trust it to be the latter no matter how much sense it would make. Of course constituency results matter jot in the great scheme of things. Jas, you know?)

No idea. I'd need to look into it.

C'mon guys, do one for the team and save the rest of us whose politicians are too afraid (not that yours had a choice, obviously, but you still got the chance). Think of how happy Gustaf and I will be with your 'no' vote.

Out of interest, what are your objections to the Treaty?

[Bono]

I'm still undecided.

I am though changing my address on the electoral register as I won't be able to travel back on a Thursday to vote.

(I wonder whether we are using the old constituencies or the new redrawn ones, this is Ireland so I wouldn't trust it to be the latter no matter how much sense it would make. Of course constituency results matter jot in the great scheme of things. Jas, you know?)

No idea. I'd need to look into it.

C'mon guys, do one for the team and save the rest of us whose politicians are too afraid (not that yours had a choice, obviously, but you still got the chance). Think of how happy Gustaf and I will be with your 'no' vote.

Out of interest, what are your objections to the Treaty?

Increase in EU powers, with many fields coming into qualified majority decision, the end of the reference to free and unrestricted competition the pseudo-conservative Sarkozy rammed through, and the incorporation of that joke charter of "rights".

[Јas]

Increase in EU powers, with many fields coming into qualified majority decision

Are there any of the powers in particular which concern you or is it the principle of increased EU powers in general that you oppose?

(FTR, the further transfer of powers is something I have to look into further.)

the end of the reference to free and unrestricted competition the pseudo-conservative Sarkozy rammed through,

As I understand it though, that reference was simply moved to a protocol from the main text. Does that mean there will be any substantive difference in EU policy or practice?

[Harry Hayfield]

I think I can tell what's going to happen here quite easily

Dustin knocked out of Eurovision in first semi final: YES 0% NO 100%
Dustin finishes in bottom half of final scoreboard: YES 25% NO 75%
Dustin finishes in top half of final scoreboard: Too close to call
Dustin wins Eurovision 2008: YES Landslide

[Јas]

New poll published in today's irish Times, conduucted by TNSmrbi.
Sample 1000

Yes 35 (+9 on January)
No 18 (+8)
Don't Know 47 (-17)

As the article points out though:
"However, there is no room for complacency on the Yes side. The first Irish Times poll during the Nice referendum campaign in 2001 showed the Yes side with a bigger lead of 52 per cent to 21 per cent, yet the No side won a month later."

Also of possible interest:
"On the No side, the failure to understand what the treaty is about emerged as the biggest reason for taking that side, while safeguarding Ireland’s neutrality came as the second most important reason for a No vote.

Other important reasons given were that the bigger countries or east European countries had too much influence, keeping Irish identity and helping farmers in the world trade talks.

Asked if they understood what the Lisbon Treaty was about, 38 per cent said they didn’t know, 31 per cent said they were vaguely aware of the issues involved, 23 per cent said they understood some of the issues and just 6 per cent said they had a good understanding of what the treaty was about.

However, when asked which of two statements came closest to their view, 43 per cent said Ireland should do all it could to unite fully with the EU while 38 per cent said Ireland should do all it could to protect its independence from the EU and 18 per cent had no opinion."

Link: http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/frontpage/2008/0517/1210971889984.html

[Јas]

From today's Irish Times...

Austrian pen pals try soft sell approach

JUST WHEN the Yes campaign thought they were getting on top of the battle for hearts and minds over the referendum comes a secret weapon from the No campaign: hordes of Austrian letter-writers.

Austrian citizens opposed to the Lisbon Treaty have been thumbing through Irish phone books and sending unsolicited letters to private addresses across Ireland urging citizens to vote No.

The most common version is from Christoph Ruf of Kirchbichl, a municipality in west Austria, who describes himself as an "Austrian citizen who is not allowed to vote".

In contrast to most of the heated rhetoric in the referendum so far, he adopts a softer approach, giving recipients his "very best wishes", and attaches a sticker on the back of the envelope with the words "Alles Liebe!, or "all is love".

This grassroots movement may not be all that it seems, though. The No group, Libertas, is liaising with an umbrella organisation known as Rettet Österreich (Save Austria), which has been campaigning for Austria to hold a referendum on the treaty.

A spokesman for Libertas insisted that it was not funding the exercise and that the letter-writing idea was "entirely spontaneous" on the part of the Austrians. However, the spokesman speculated that people may expect similar letters over the coming weeks from citizens in Denmark, France and a range of other countries.

[Harry Hayfield]

Dustin knocked out of Eurovision in first semi final: YES 0% NO 100%

Dustin was indeed knocked out in the first round. I would not be at all suprised if when the votes are published on Sunday, Ireland will come out swinging against the EU and vote it down on the back of that result

[Јas]

Dustin knocked out of Eurovision in first semi final: YES 0% NO 100%

Dustin was indeed knocked out in the first round. I would not be at all suprised if when the votes are published on Sunday, Ireland will come out swinging against the EU and vote it down on the back of that result

I think it was widely expected to make the final at least.
It was though the first time I've heard boos at Eurovision before the song has even begun.

[Tender Branson]

New Poll:

Yes - 41% (+3)
No - 33% (+5)

Undecided - 26% (-8)

http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/0524/lisbon.html

[Harry Hayfield]

Poll Tally 2008
January 2008: YES 26% NO 10% Undecided 64% (YES lead of 16%
May 17th 2008: YES 35% (+9%) NO 18% (+8%) Undecided 47% (-17%) YES lead of 17% (+1%)
May 27th 2008: YES 41% (+6%) NO 33% (+15%) Undecided 26% (-21%) YES lead of 8% (-9%)

[Bono]

Increase in EU powers, with many fields coming into qualified majority decision

Are there any of the powers in particular which concern you or is it the principle of increased EU powers in general that you oppose?

(FTR, the further transfer of powers is something I have to look into further.)

While I do oppose the principle in general, I'm very worried about the end of the unanimity requirement for Justice and Internal Affairs decisions. I feel very worried that the EU might get in the business of dictating criminal laws.

the end of the reference to free and unrestricted competition the pseudo-conservative Sarkozy rammed through,

As I understand it though, that reference was simply moved to a protocol from the main text. Does that mean there will be any substantive difference in EU policy or practice?

Well, Trichet is concerned, and it is my understanding the moving it to the protocol makes it easier to remove. Besides, Sarkozy added some hogwash about a social market economy where the free and unrestricted competition thing was.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Having viewed for afar the campaign so far I will now predict that YES will win quite comfortably, roughly 57/43.

Most of those Undecideds won't vote or those that do will vote Yes. They always do.

[Јas]

Having viewed for afar the campaign so far I will now predict that YES will win quite comfortably, roughly 57/43.

Most of those Undecideds won't vote or those that do will vote Yes. They always do.

FTR, I'm predicting NO to win - though I'll grant that (i) I'm in a distinct minority on this, and (ii) I'm often quite woefully incorrect on my predictions.

I think the Yes vote is very soft and will not turnout to the necessary degree to win. The level of understanding about the Treaty is minimal and I think the No side's scaremongering will work better than the Yes side's scaremongering amongst undecideds.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Having viewed for afar the campaign so far I will now predict that YES will win quite comfortably, roughly 57/43.

Most of those Undecideds won't vote or those that do will vote Yes. They always do.

FTR, I'm predicting NO to win - though I'll grant that (i) I'm in a distinct minority on this, and (ii) I'm often quite woefully incorrect on my predictions.

I think the Yes vote is very soft and will not turnout to the necessary degree to win. The level of understanding about the Treaty is minimal and I think the No side's scaremongering will work better than the Yes side's scaremongering amongst undecideds.

I disagree... despite the lethargy of the campaign so far it is still getting far more attention than Nice I ever did and so should ensure than turnout will exceed 40% (the only way NO will win imo is if it goes below this threshold). However there is a stronger NO vote than the past (Libertas, elements within the IFA...) which may be important and make it closer than Nice II however I think that most people will vote YES will do so simply because "The EU has been good for us so far" type of logic. This has always worked in the past. (And yes that means I agree that the YES vote is very soft, but that 'soft' YES applies for more than 50% of potential voters)

[Јas]

I disagree... despite the lethargy of the campaign so far it is still getting far more attention than Nice I ever did

Agree - but coverage doesn't necessarily correlate to understanding.

For a variety of reasons, the Treaty has come up in conversation to me with people from a reasonably wide set of backgrounds in the last few days. I'm quite convinced that very few people could really explain what the Treaty's about (I mean that in the broadest possible sense).

and so should ensure than turnout will exceed 40% (the only way NO will win imo is if it goes below this threshold).

That's around the level of turnout I'd expect (35-45%).

Unless the Yes side put the sort of effort they put into general election turnouts, I don't see it climbing above 50% and I think the No side are stronger than they have been before.

However there is a stronger NO vote than the past (Libertas, elements within the IFA...) which may be important and make it closer than Nice II however I think that most people will vote YES will do so simply because "The EU has been good for us so far" type of logic.

Agreed.

This has always worked in the past. (And yes that means I agree that the YES vote is very soft, but that 'soft' YES applies for more than 50% of potential voters)

Also agreed.

I think it will be quite close. The key is turnout, and that game is still to be won or lost IMO. I reserve the right to change my prediction simply on how much effort the Yes side put into the turnout cause.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Ok then, we pretty much agree. And here I wanted a blazing row.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

And that makes it different from the previous EU referendums - how?

Admittely there isn't the whole "Guilt - OMG THINK OF TEH POLESS!1111" of Nice II. And the Yes side it must be said has not really given a reason yet why people should vote for the Lisbon Treaty. Its all been [Dougal]"The EU - isn't it great?"[/Dougal] so far.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yes.

Jas, may I ask how you will be voting? It seems you have a greater belief in the Irish people to make non-conservative decision that I do.

[Јas]

Ok then, we pretty much agree. And here I wanted a blazing row.

Maybe next time

You must be logged in to read this quote.

And that makes it different from the previous EU referendums - how?

Admittely there isn't the whole "Guilt - OMG THINK OF TEH POLESS!1111" of Nice II. And the Yes side it must be said has not really given a reason yet why people should vote for the Lisbon Treaty. Its all been [Dougal]"The EU - isn't it great?"[/Dougal] so far.

For Nice II, the key Yes argument was simply that the Treaty was necessary for expansion to give eastern Europe the opportunities we had. With eastern Europe now firmly inside, that argument disappears.

And I strongly agree that the Yes side have not produced a coherent reason to vote for the Treaty. They've simply demonised the No side (who are, in fairness, easily demonised).

Jas, may I ask how you will be voting? It seems you have a greater belief in the Irish people to make non-conservative decision that I do.

Due to unforeseen work-related stuff, I may not be able to vote. I'm going to be in Poland that week and return home on referendum day. The exact timing of things has yet to be worked out.

If I do get to mark a ballot though, I'm not certain yet what I'll do, though at the minute, I'm leaning no more than yes (though it really pains me to seriously consider siding with people who I variously consider to be, among other things, misguided, nuts, or just plain evil).

[Tetro Kornbluth]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Ditto. (Except add in "Scotland" for "Poland" and "that week" for "that very day".) 

Actually coming to think of it, I'm not sure what the treaty is about. Informed person that I am.

[Jake]

Asked if they understood what the Lisbon Treaty was about, 38 per cent said they didn’t know, 31 per cent said they were vaguely aware of the issues involved, 23 per cent said they understood some of the issues and just 6 per cent said they had a good understanding of what the treaty was about.

Fairly frightening I'd think. Not that this is a problem only in Ireland o/c.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Asked if they understood what the Lisbon Treaty was about, 38 per cent said they didn’t know, 31 per cent said they were vaguely aware of the issues involved, 23 per cent said they understood some of the issues and just 6 per cent said they had a good understanding of what the treaty was about.

Fairly frightening I'd think. Not that this is a problem only in Ireland o/c.

Not if you try to read the text of the Lisbon Treaty...

[Jake]

That's exactly what I mean. Governments are now able to either A. ram a treaty like this through without popular ratification or B. make it so complicated few take the time to read it, gambling that enough people will be unconvinced by the No side.

[Hash]

That's exactly what I mean. Governments are now able to either A. ram a treaty like this through without popular ratification or B. make it so complicated few take the time to read it, gambling that enough people will be unconvinced by the No side.

IIRC, in 2005 the French government sent out copies of the Constitution to everybody. I doubt many read it. I know some in my family voted against simply because they didn't understand what it said.
And as you said, the government thought that simply because only fringe/fascists/Trots were against it overall (FN, MPF, LO-LCR, CPNT, PCF etc.) it would pass because the people would naturally vote with the major parties/