Republican open seats Dems won't win in '08

[Brittain33]

To demonstrate that I'm not going too crazy based on yesterday's results in Mississippi, a list of open seats that I don't think Democrats have a realistic chance of winning barring a massive scandal by the Republican.

CA-04
CA-52 (Duncan Hunter)
MS-3
IL-18
KY-2
OH-7
PA-5
CO-6 (Tancredo)

I'm also extremely close to putting WY-AL and FL-15 in those categories too, but hesitate only because I don't have a clear sense of who the candidates are.

Otherwise, I'm purposefully not going into the absences from this list because that would detract from the message.

[Torie]

Pretty safe list.  You don't like living on the edge much do you? 

Other than the two to which you otherwise refer, here are some other ones to consider:

AL-2
NM-2
MD-1

[minionofmidas]

Pretty save list.  You don't like living on the edge much do you? 

Other than the two to which you otherwise refer, here are some other ones to consider:

AL-2
NM-2
MD-1

NM-2 being much the longest shot of these for Dems, though impossible to predict until after the primary. Hard to get a feel for AL-2... if the Reps don't bruise too badly in the primary (I think it's genuinely contested. Might be wrong though.) and the Dem's not as much of a star as he was hailed... this could end up not close at all. Otherwise... this could well flip. MD-1... yeah well, you should look into that one more closely. Definitely a seat with potential, and for much the same reasons as in MS-1.

[Brittain33]

AL-2

I'm holding out hope for this one based on the last two specials, actually, and the fact that the Democrat is a strong candidate who wouldn't be running if he didn't feel he had a good shot. His fundraising is absolutely pathetic, though.

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I forgot MD-1 was now open and forgot about NM-2 altogether. Agreed.

[CollectiveInterest]

To demonstrate that I'm not going too crazy based on yesterday's results in Mississippi, a list of open seats that I don't think Democrats have a realistic chance of winning barring a massive scandal by the Republican.

IL-18

I'm also extremely close to putting WY-AL and FL-15 in those categories too, but hesitate only because I don't have a clear sense of who the candidates are.

Otherwise, I'm purposefully not going into the absences from this list because that would detract from the message.

While I think it's early to call IL-18 as "Dem favored", I think this seat will ultimately be won by the Dems.

Obama is on the top of the ticket.

Illinois GOP is in disarray. The state Dems haven't exactly been impressing observers with their service, but the Dem candidate in IL-18 can't be linked to the knuckleheads in Springfield.

Aaron Schock the Republican has been impressive in his ignorance of internaitonal issues. He's also got a sort of smug attitude that should remind people why they don't like Congressional Republicans and other Bush toadies.

The Dems should be able to win in IL-14.

Also, I stand by my analysis that when the final weeks of the campaign happen Dem candidates for the U.S. House will get money and GOP candidates, especially in open seats, won't get anything. The GOP money will go to higher priorities: 1) McCain, 2) U.S. Senate, 3) governors races, 4) senior U.S. House members.

[minionofmidas]

Eh. the IL-18 Dems haven't exactly looked much better than the IL-18 Reps.
That said, it was the one district on that list there that I wouldn't have added as a 100% safe Rep hold. Well, just about possibly CA-04 if the Reps sufficiently self-destruct.
But brittain spoke of "reasonably certain", not "100% certain".

[Brittain33]

Eh. the IL-18 Dems haven't exactly looked much better than the IL-18 Reps.
That said, it was the one district on that list there that I wouldn't have added as a 100% safe Rep hold. Well, just about possibly CA-04 if the Reps sufficiently self-destruct.
But brittain spoke of "reasonably certain", not "100% certain".

I think in general I err on the side of caution, and was trying not to be too optimistic about IL-18. I know Schock has got his issues, but he seems like the kind of Republican who has a good shot at it, young and enthusiastic.

[Verily]

Pretty save list.  You don't like living on the edge much do you? 

Other than the two to which you otherwise refer, here are some other ones to consider:

AL-2
NM-2
MD-1

NM-2 being much the longest shot of these for Dems, though impossible to predict until after the primary. Hard to get a feel for AL-2... if the Reps don't bruise too badly in the primary (I think it's genuinely contested. Might be wrong though.) and the Dem's not as much of a star as he was hailed... this could end up not close at all. Otherwise... this could well flip. MD-1... yeah well, you should look into that one more closely. Definitely a seat with potential, and for much the same reasons as in MS-1.

NM-2 was open in 2002, and Pearce only won it 56-44, pretty weak for a generally Republican-favorable year. I don't know how strong his opponent was, though.

[minionofmidas]

56-44 is basically generic (non-incumbent) rep vs generic dem here.

[Mr.Phips]

To demonstrate that I'm not going too crazy based on yesterday's results in Mississippi, a list of open seats that I don't think Democrats have a realistic chance of winning barring a massive scandal by the Republican.

CA-04
CA-52 (Duncan Hunter)
MS-3
IL-18
KY-2
OH-7
PA-5
CO-6 (Tancredo)

I'm also extremely close to putting WY-AL and FL-15 in those categories too, but hesitate only because I don't have a clear sense of who the candidates are.

Otherwise, I'm purposefully not going into the absences from this list because that would detract from the message.

I pretty much I agree here, but I do think FL-15 could be a sleeper.  This district elected Democrats from 1978 to 1994 and is clearly trending blue.  Dave Weldon was held to just 56% by a Democrat who believed that George W. Bush planned 9/11. 

[Sam Spade]

To demonstrate that I'm not going too crazy based on yesterday's results in Mississippi, a list of open seats that I don't think Democrats have a realistic chance of winning barring a massive scandal by the Republican.

CA-04
CA-52 (Duncan Hunter)
MS-3
IL-18
KY-2
OH-7
PA-5
CO-6 (Tancredo)

I'm also extremely close to putting WY-AL and FL-15 in those categories too, but hesitate only because I don't have a clear sense of who the candidates are.

Otherwise, I'm purposefully not going into the absences from this list because that would detract from the message.

I pretty much I agree here, but I do think FL-15 could be a sleeper.  This district elected Democrats from 1978 to 1994 and is clearly trending blue.  Dave Weldon was held to just 56% by a Democrat who believed that George W. Bush planned 9/11. 

The problem with FL-15 is that the Republicans have an A-plus candidate, while the Dems have (what looks like to me anyways) a couple of third-stringers.  And the filing deadline has already passed.

Otherwise, I would agree with you (and would agree with you if somehow Posey gets knocked off).  Plus, Florida appears to be one place where the Republican brand is not in that bad of shape (compared to other places, at least)

[Sam Spade]

56-44 is basically generic (non-incumbent) rep vs generic dem here.

NM-02 is an odd place, but yeah that's about right (generically)

My read at present, it looks as if the Dems are going to nominate the conservative white Dem from Hobbs who's got oil money, which is the correct call on their part to have a chance.  The only concern I would have is that the Hispanics may not show up in the GE (and up-ticket will not help here concerning turnout).

The GOP side is a mess right now - hard to tell.  Though the nominee here will either be a good fundraiser or will be able to self-fund, though will have not held elected office before.

Not going to go through the names right now.

MD-01, I agree with Lewis.  Though unlike MS-01, the region that would be against Harris is not a historically Democratic area.  We will know in a certain amount of time whether problems arise here or not.

AL-02 - feast or famine.  In a Prez year, the more likely answer is famine.  We'll see.  Depends on who the GOP nominee is too, of course.

Since we're talking about reasonably certain, these probably go on the list.

[Sam Spade]

Eh. the IL-18 Dems haven't exactly looked much better than the IL-18 Reps.
That said, it was the one district on that list there that I wouldn't have added as a 100% safe Rep hold. Well, just about possibly CA-04 if the Reps sufficiently self-destruct.
But brittain spoke of "reasonably certain", not "100% certain".

I think in general I err on the side of caution, and was trying not to be too optimistic about IL-18. I know Schock has got his issues, but he seems like the kind of Republican who has a good shot at it, young and enthusiastic.

Not to mention winning a state House seat that's about 60-40 Dem in Illinois in 2006.  Past record means a lot more to me than it does to other people, however, I suspect.

[Mr.Phips]

To demonstrate that I'm not going too crazy based on yesterday's results in Mississippi, a list of open seats that I don't think Democrats have a realistic chance of winning barring a massive scandal by the Republican.

CA-04
CA-52 (Duncan Hunter)
MS-3
IL-18
KY-2
OH-7
PA-5
CO-6 (Tancredo)

I'm also extremely close to putting WY-AL and FL-15 in those categories too, but hesitate only because I don't have a clear sense of who the candidates are.

Otherwise, I'm purposefully not going into the absences from this list because that would detract from the message.

I pretty much I agree here, but I do think FL-15 could be a sleeper.  This district elected Democrats from 1978 to 1994 and is clearly trending blue.  Dave Weldon was held to just 56% by a Democrat who believed that George W. Bush planned 9/11. 

The problem with FL-15 is that the Republicans have an A-plus candidate, while the Dems have (what looks like to me anyways) a couple of third-stringers.  And the filing deadline has already passed.

Otherwise, I would agree with you (and would agree with you if somehow Posey gets knocked off).  Plus, Florida appears to be one place where the Republican brand is not in that bad of shape (compared to other places, at least)

Thats true.  However, I still dont expect it to be a blowout.  There is a Democratic base of around 44% in that district. 

[minionofmidas]

There is such a place as a district with a 44% dem base and a 48% rep base that either will find it hard to drop below.

Lots of very weak Dem candidates did better than joke candidates usually do in 2006. Now that's one thing I wouldn't draw too much hope from - just because for once the Dem base will vote for anyone over the incumbent doesn't suddenly make the Dem base into a majority group. (see also: MI-7.)

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I honestly doubt that Democrats will win NJ-07.  NJ-03, meanwhile, they have a damn good shot at picking up.

[Brittain33]

I honestly doubt that Democrats will win NJ-07.

I'd draw a distinction between seats where you think the Democrats won't win and seats won in '06 by people like Doug Lamborn, Mary Fallin, and Kevin McCarthy, that were simply unwinnable by a Democrat at any stage of the process because of a combination of district demographics and the viability of the Republican (or in the case of CO-5 and ID-1, the former alone.)

If Stender got 49% in '06, and Ferguson hadn't strangled a mistress or had a secret affair with Bruce Vilanch, there's no way someone can say she simply can not win the seat this year. That's all.

I'm saying that Democrats have no realistic path to success in the seats I listed. They clearly have one in NJ-7.

[MarkWarner08]

AL-2

I'm holding out hope for this one based on the last two specials, actually, and the fact that the Democrat is a strong candidate who wouldn't be running if he didn't feel he had a good shot. His fundraising is absolutely pathetic, though.

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I forgot MD-1 was now open and forgot about NM-2 altogether. Agreed.

Booby Bright is a strong D candidate in AL-02. I doubt Democrats will make much of an effort in MD-01. NM-02 is an enigma to me right now. I'll have a better idea of what will happen after the primaries.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

If Stender got 49% in '06, and Ferguson hadn't strangled a mistress or had a secret affair with Bruce Vilanch, there's no way someone can say she simply can not win the seat this year. That's all.

Well, I did say that I "highly doubt" Stender will win, not that I don't think she has a chance.  The bottom line is that Senator Lance is a stronger candidate than Ferguson.

And Ferguson did have a scandal weighing down on him: Stender dredged up the old sexual harassment allegations against Ferguson after the Foley story broke.  It was a damn smart move, and Foley was a damn lucky break (for her) because it made the college bar incident "relevant."

[Brittain33]

Well, I did say that I "highly doubt" Stender will win, not that I don't think she has a chance.

Yeah, I'm just playing Topic Police on this thread because I can see it getting so much wider and then losing its point.

[Sam Spade]

Well, I did say that I "highly doubt" Stender will win, not that I don't think she has a chance.

Yeah, I'm just playing Topic Police on this thread because I can see it getting so much wider and then losing its point.

That's my job, bucko.  okthx