North Carolina-1988;Texas-1992
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  North Carolina-1988;Texas-1992
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Author Topic: North Carolina-1988;Texas-1992  (Read 1979 times)
GPORTER
gporter
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« on: May 14, 2008, 06:53:06 PM »

Start with North Carolina, the polls said up to election day that North Carolina would be like South Carolina and Florida that year, fall into the sixty percent mark. But, it did not. Why do you think that it did not fall in the 60% mark when polls even the day before election day showed a sure thing that it would be in the 60% mark?

Next with Texas, why was this so close in 1992?
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #1 on: May 14, 2008, 06:57:04 PM »

Start with North Carolina, the polls said up to election day that North Carolina would be like South Carolina and Florida that year, fall into the sixty percent mark. But, it did not. Why do you think that it did not fall in the 60% mark when polls even the day before election day showed a sure thing that it would be in the 60% mark?

Show me some polls; I don't believe that.  Besides 58% is not that far under 60%, probably just the undecideds breaking for Dukakis.

Next with Texas, why was this so close in 1992?

Because GW Bush was unpopular, Clinton played well in the South, and Perot got 23%.
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GPORTER
gporter
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« Reply #2 on: May 14, 2008, 08:10:21 PM »

Start with North Carolina, the polls said up to election day that North Carolina would be like South Carolina and Florida that year, fall into the sixty percent mark. But, it did not. Why do you think that it did not fall in the 60% mark when polls even the day before election day showed a sure thing that it would be in the 60% mark?

Show me some polls; I don't believe that.  Besides 58% is not that far under 60%, probably just the undecideds breaking for Dukakis.

Next with Texas, why was this so close in 1992?

Because GW Bush was unpopular, Clinton played well in the South, and Perot got 23%.

I did not know that George W. Bush was President in 1992.
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #3 on: May 14, 2008, 08:13:41 PM »

Start with North Carolina, the polls said up to election day that North Carolina would be like South Carolina and Florida that year, fall into the sixty percent mark. But, it did not. Why do you think that it did not fall in the 60% mark when polls even the day before election day showed a sure thing that it would be in the 60% mark?

Show me some polls; I don't believe that.  Besides 58% is not that far under 60%, probably just the undecideds breaking for Dukakis.

Next with Texas, why was this so close in 1992?

Because GW Bush was unpopular, Clinton played well in the South, and Perot got 23%.

I did not know that George W. Bush was President in 1992.

LOL you got me Tongue
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
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« Reply #4 on: May 14, 2008, 10:00:16 PM »

It was Bush's fault.
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Robespierre's Jaw
Senator Conor Flynn
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« Reply #5 on: May 16, 2008, 06:15:37 AM »

Start with North Carolina, the polls said up to election day that North Carolina would be like South Carolina and Florida that year, fall into the sixty percent mark. But, it did not. Why do you think that it did not fall in the 60% mark when polls even the day before election day showed a sure thing that it would be in the 60% mark?

I was probably due to the late undecided voters in North Carolina breaking for Governor Dukakis. Or that Polls in North Carolina predicted the wrong margin, like Obama winning New Hampshire back in January. Afterall all polls are within at least a 1-2 point margin of error. So it could be a combination of the two.

Next with Texas, why was this so close in 1992?

Numerous factors contributed to Texas going to Bush by only 3.48%. Voter dissatisfaction with the Bush Administration and the Economy to name a few, though the most important factor in Bush's narrow victory in Texas in 1992 would be H. Ross Perot.

Afterall, Perot managed to receive 22% of the vote deep in the heart of Texas in 1992. Much of his support came from ex-Bush supporters, who voted for Bush in 1988 but jumped ship to Boat Perot in 1992. Many believe that a significant majority of Perot supporters preferred Bush to Clinton. Though the latter is questionable as some suggest that Perot voters would have spilt evenly had Perot not entered the race.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #6 on: May 17, 2008, 01:19:29 AM »

Start with North Carolina, the polls said up to election day that North Carolina would be like South Carolina and Florida that year, fall into the sixty percent mark. But, it did not. Why do you think that it did not fall in the 60% mark when polls even the day before election day showed a sure thing that it would be in the 60% mark?

Next with Texas, why was this so close in 1992?
Perot was from Dallas.  Take a look at his support on the Texas map for 1992, especially the Dallas area vs. Houston area.
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