Rasmussen: Barr @ 6%, Nader @ 4% - while Obama leads McCain

[Tender Branson]

Suppose that in the race for President you had a choice between Democrat Barack Obama, Republican John McCain, Libertarian Bob Barr, and Green Ralph Nader. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Obama - 42%
McCain - 38%
Barr - 6%
Nader - 4%
Not sure - 11%

Suppose that in the race for President you had a choice between Democrat Barack Obama, Republican John McCain, Independent Hillary Clinton, Libertarian Bob Barr, and Green Ralph Nader. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

McCain - 32%
Obama - 31%
Clinton - 22%
Barr - 3%
Nader - 3%
Undecided - 9%

Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression of Bob Barr?

Favorable - 19%
Unfavorable - 29%
Undecided - 52%

Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression of Ralph Nader?

Favorable - 25%
Unfavorable - 54%
Undecided - 21%

Link

[Joe Republic]

I don't buy it.  Four percent would be Ralph Nader's best performance ever, and there's certainly no reason why he would improve on his result of 0.4% four years ago.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I don't buy it.  Four percent would be Ralph Nader's best performance ever, and there's certainly no reason why he would improve on his result of 0.4% four years ago.

Yeah, third parties always perform stronger far out from the election.  Their numbers always fall apart at the end, because people eventually see them for what they typically are: spoilers.

[Hash]

Ridiculous poll.

[Meeker]

Interesting that Barr is polling higher than Nader despite having half the name recognition.

[Nutmeg]

Except Nader isn't running as a Green. That's really something the pollster should have known before embarking on this exercise.

Also, the changes in numbers between the first and second questions are interesting.

[© tweed]

Nader hit the high single digits in early/semi-early polls in 2004.  third parties always tend to overpoll (a possible contributor is that the MoE of the polls is greater than the % a third party will even attain).  he will have difficulty securing ballot access in even a simple majority of states.

[auburntiger]

On Fox, they were talking about Barr and Ron Paul being the two spoiler candidates. I don't know anything about Bob Barr, but as far as Ron Paul goes, it seems he has more signs around than he does actual votes... Well, what I'm for sure is that if there is a significant third party candidate(s) is that it will ensure a Democratic victory.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression of Ralph Nader?

Favorable - 25%
Unfavorable - 54%
Undecided - 21%

[© tweed]

there's also no chance Nader will run as a Green

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Nader hit the high single digits in early/semi-early polls in 2004.  third parties always tend to overpoll (a possible contributor is that the MoE of the polls is greater than the % a third party will even attain).  he will have difficulty securing ballot access in even a simple majority of states.

I think the main contributor is that Nader and Barr's names are actually read in the poll question.  To people answering the poll, the sheer fact that Nader and Barr are mentioned gives their respective campaigns an illusion of respectability that neither has.

[ChrisFromNJ]

The fact that these two are registering around 10% of support in a poll says that a third party might have an impact on this election.

I am not saying the numbers are going to hold, but it at least shows some relative interest.

[Franzl]

The fact that these two are registering around 10% of support in a poll says that a third party might have an impact on this election.

I am not saying the numbers are going to hold, but it at least shows some relative interest.

I don't think it tells us anything about actual 3rd party support.

It all depends on how you ask the question, and naming Barr and Nader makes them appear to be viable candidates.

[Eraserhead]

So Hillary could run as an Indy and Obama still might win? lol.

[Lief 🗽]

God, McCain really sucks if he's still tied with Obama with Clinton running as an independent.

[War on Want]

God, McCain really sucks if he's still tied with Obama with Clinton running as an independent.

[War on Want]

Electoral map with Clinton as indy(just for fun):

Clinton is red, Obama is green
Yeah I don't think this would happen but it is more fun.