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Author Topic: OR PrimD: ARG: Obama maintains lead in OR  (Read 4062 times)
OC
olawakandi
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« on: May 16, 2008, 11:07:17 am »
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New Poll: Oregon President by ARG on 2008-5-16

Summary:
Obama:
50%
Clinton:
45%
Other:
0%
Undecided:
5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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Alcon
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« Reply #1 on: May 16, 2008, 07:10:55 pm »
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Another poll showing Obama and Clinton tied among already-cast ballots

Quote
Clinton and Obama are tied at 49% each among voters saying they have returned their ballots (58% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Obama leads 52% to 40% among voters saying they will definitely return their ballots by May 20th.

On the other hand, it's ARG...but I wouldn't be surprised if this race were closer than what the polls show.
« Last Edit: May 16, 2008, 07:12:53 pm by Alcon »Logged

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« Reply #2 on: May 16, 2008, 07:30:05 pm »
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How long should the counting take?
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« Reply #3 on: May 17, 2008, 01:14:11 am »
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Another poll showing Obama and Clinton tied among already-cast ballots

Oh come on, you should know better than to look at an ARG poll for ANYTHING but amusement.
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Alcon
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« Reply #4 on: May 17, 2008, 02:42:17 am »
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Another poll showing Obama and Clinton tied among already-cast ballots

Oh come on, you should know better than to look at an ARG poll for ANYTHING but amusement.

Well they're better than guessing, marginally.

I was really just hoping to draw your ire Tongue
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« Reply #5 on: May 17, 2008, 10:06:41 am »
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Another poll showing Obama and Clinton tied among already-cast ballots

Oh come on, you should know better than to look at an ARG poll for ANYTHING but amusement.

Well they're better than guessing, marginally.

No. All that demographic analysis stuff to get estimates is WAY more accurate than ARG.
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« Reply #6 on: May 17, 2008, 11:48:32 am »
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Why have they underpolled Obama and overpolled Clinton so badly this cycle? 

Remember their last Iowa poll?

Clinton-34%   Edwards-21%   Obama-25%

They missed Obama by 13 pts, how does that even happen? 
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« Reply #7 on: May 17, 2008, 01:29:48 pm »
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Why have they underpolled Obama and overpolled Clinton so badly this cycle? 

Remember their last Iowa poll?

Clinton-34%   Edwards-21%   Obama-25%

They missed Obama by 13 pts, how does that even happen? 

Because they're really awful.  I'm convinced that they just use a random number generator to create their "polls".  They've regularly been off by 10 points or so, and 15 points off isn't that uncommon.  In SC, their final pre-election poll had Obama leading by 3, and he won by 24.

Here are some of ARG's greatest hits just from pre-Super Tuesday (final ARG poll for each state):

IA: Clinton up by 9
NH: Obama up by 9
MI: McCain up by 1
SC: Obama up by 3
SC: Huckabee up by 7
FL: Romney up by 2

But those are just the final pre-election polls.  ARG's polls from weeks or months before an election are often much worse.  For example, in early 2007, they had Clinton leading by double digits in Iowa, when every other pollster had Edwards leading.  In the spring/summer of 2007, they had McCain still leading in SC, when everyone else had him trailing by double digits.  In mid-January, when every other pollster had McCain leading in CA and Giuliani in the low teens, ARG had Giuliani leading by double digits with 33% of the vote.
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« Reply #8 on: May 18, 2008, 01:33:33 am »
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Nothing beats the self-parody of having Clinton up in Wisconsin.
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