Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 27, 2015, 05:10:52 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Be sure to enable your "Ultimate Profile" for even more goodies on your profile page!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  2008 Elections
| | |-+  2008 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls
| | | |-+  OR PrimD: ARG: Obama maintains lead in OR
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: OR PrimD: ARG: Obama maintains lead in OR  (Read 4188 times)
OC
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11246
United States


P P P
View Profile
« on: May 16, 2008, 11:07:17 am »
Ignore

New Poll: Oregon President by ARG on 2008-5-16

Summary:
Obama:
50%
Clinton:
45%
Other:
0%
Undecided:
5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Logged
Grad Students are the Worst
Alcon
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29887
United States


View Profile
« Reply #1 on: May 16, 2008, 07:10:55 pm »
Ignore

Another poll showing Obama and Clinton tied among already-cast ballots

Quote
Clinton and Obama are tied at 49% each among voters saying they have returned their ballots (58% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Obama leads 52% to 40% among voters saying they will definitely return their ballots by May 20th.

On the other hand, it's ARG...but I wouldn't be surprised if this race were closer than what the polls show.
« Last Edit: May 16, 2008, 07:12:53 pm by Alcon »Logged

n/c
MSUfan
Jtfdem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6406
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: 4.70

View Profile
« Reply #2 on: May 16, 2008, 07:30:05 pm »
Ignore

How long should the counting take?
Logged
I left my heart in the back of the cab
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 74313
France


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: May 17, 2008, 01:14:11 am »
Ignore

Another poll showing Obama and Clinton tied among already-cast ballots

Oh come on, you should know better than to look at an ARG poll for ANYTHING but amusement.
Logged

Grad Students are the Worst
Alcon
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29887
United States


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: May 17, 2008, 02:42:17 am »
Ignore

Another poll showing Obama and Clinton tied among already-cast ballots

Oh come on, you should know better than to look at an ARG poll for ANYTHING but amusement.

Well they're better than guessing, marginally.

I was really just hoping to draw your ire Tongue
Logged

n/c
I left my heart in the back of the cab
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 74313
France


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: May 17, 2008, 10:06:41 am »
Ignore

Another poll showing Obama and Clinton tied among already-cast ballots

Oh come on, you should know better than to look at an ARG poll for ANYTHING but amusement.

Well they're better than guessing, marginally.

No. All that demographic analysis stuff to get estimates is WAY more accurate than ARG.
Logged

HockeyDude
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9480
United States


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: May 17, 2008, 11:48:32 am »
Ignore

Why have they underpolled Obama and overpolled Clinton so badly this cycle? 

Remember their last Iowa poll?

Clinton-34%   Edwards-21%   Obama-25%

They missed Obama by 13 pts, how does that even happen? 
Logged

Mr. Morden
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22113
United States


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: May 17, 2008, 01:29:48 pm »
Ignore

Why have they underpolled Obama and overpolled Clinton so badly this cycle? 

Remember their last Iowa poll?

Clinton-34%   Edwards-21%   Obama-25%

They missed Obama by 13 pts, how does that even happen? 

Because they're really awful.  I'm convinced that they just use a random number generator to create their "polls".  They've regularly been off by 10 points or so, and 15 points off isn't that uncommon.  In SC, their final pre-election poll had Obama leading by 3, and he won by 24.

Here are some of ARG's greatest hits just from pre-Super Tuesday (final ARG poll for each state):

IA: Clinton up by 9
NH: Obama up by 9
MI: McCain up by 1
SC: Obama up by 3
SC: Huckabee up by 7
FL: Romney up by 2

But those are just the final pre-election polls.  ARG's polls from weeks or months before an election are often much worse.  For example, in early 2007, they had Clinton leading by double digits in Iowa, when every other pollster had Edwards leading.  In the spring/summer of 2007, they had McCain still leading in SC, when everyone else had him trailing by double digits.  In mid-January, when every other pollster had McCain leading in CA and Giuliani in the low teens, ARG had Giuliani leading by double digits with 33% of the vote.
Logged

My magnum opus is now complete.  Read the complete "The Adventures of Hobo Orgy Guy & Blondie" (now in paperback).

Watch Dave being briefed by the mods.

Being a moderator is basically like one giant party.  Except you're the one ruining the party and everyone hates you.
Angel of Death
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1246
View Profile
« Reply #8 on: May 18, 2008, 01:33:33 am »
Ignore

Nothing beats the self-parody of having Clinton up in Wisconsin.
Logged

WARNING: Selling oil in euros has been proven to be hazardous to one's health.
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines