Dems in 2008: 12 Pickup Opportunities in Senate?
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  Dems in 2008: 12 Pickup Opportunities in Senate?
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HardRCafé
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« Reply #25 on: May 16, 2008, 10:41:13 PM »

Has any Republican senator polled below a challenger in NC, or within 5 points, in an election year before? How were Helms-Gantt polling at this time in '96?

Uh, yeah.  In fact, Helms was the only one who thought Helms could hang on in 1984, when he trailed Hunt by 20 points.
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Smash255
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« Reply #26 on: May 16, 2008, 11:04:53 PM »

VA isn't competitive, NM likely isn't either and I doubt NH will be as well.  All should be double digit Dem wins.

Nebraska isn't,  Texas likely won't be though Cornyn not exactly being Mr Popularity stops it from being a large victory.  Mississippi has the potential to be competitive, but simply not enough is known at this point.  Maine is a possibility of becoming competitive but strongly favors Collins at this point.  North Carolina is an interesting one.  Obama helps, the last poll on the race was a bit surprising, but is just one poll and we have to keep that in mind.  With that being said it should be somewhat and ossibly very competitive, but until we have more evidence showing it neck & neck I would say Dole has a clear advantage though not safe.   Oregon could be interesting, Obama being on the top of the ticket could be enough to pull it for the dems where it probably would not be enough with Clinton at the top.  Minnesota is very much a tossup and again like Oregon Obama being at the top could help tip the scales here as opposed to Clinton.    Alaska, Stevens being extremely corrupt, facing jail and the strongest possible Dem candidate helps.  As does Obama at the top of the ticket as he helps reduce the margin.  Colorado, competitive, but clearly leans Dem at this point.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #27 on: May 16, 2008, 11:20:11 PM »

How about this:

If Musgrove doesn't get at least 47.5% of the vote against Wicker, I'll put whatever Phil, HRC, and Mr. "Moderate" want in my sig for a year.  And I'll make this message by sig for a while so that everyone knows.
If Musgrove loses at all, I'll put whatever they want in my sig for (1 month)*(the margin in %) months.

Also, I'll have whatever avatar they want.  I'm serious about Musgrove.

If the race turns ugly against Musgrove, like a scandal or something, then too bad for me.

I'm not out looking for that, Harry. I'm just asking you to be a bit cautious. Learn from my mistakes. Stop being so cocky about your chances.
I have to be, to make up for everyone else being so cocky about Wicker's chances, when they could barely pick him out of a lineup.  How many of you have ever seen either of these candidates on your local news?  How many of you could tell me any biographical details?

I don't hear much about my own Congressional candidates yet I know who they are. I pick obscure races to follow both here and across the country so you don't need to make it seem like I know nothing about these candidates and that I'm just talking out of my ass, trying to upset you.


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How is a former Democratic Governor who was defeated by a fairly comfortable margin the slight favorite in a Presidential year? Just because you think Wicker is stupid? Ok so a black man being the nominee for President helps boost black turnout. Fine. You're saying he'll get about 43% in MS? Ok so that means Musgrove starts off guaranteed 43% of the vote. Do you really think his crossover appeal will be that great? Now you'll tell me some white Dems won't be showing up and just voting straight Republican...
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #28 on: May 17, 2008, 12:03:53 AM »

This is in response to Phil, or anyone else who happens to be curious:

I believe Musgrove will pull this race out for these reasons:
Musgrove is a statewide wellknown name.  He was elected lieutenant governor in 1995 over a sitting ltgov Eddie Briggs in an upset, and then elected in 1999 over former Congressman Mike Parker in another upset.  He knows how to win statewide races that people think he won't.  Yes, he did lose in 2003, but Barbour is a once-in-a-lifetime great campaigner and organizer, and Wicker is nowhere near his level.  Wicker is not a well-known figure outside of his district.  So Wicker starts out right there with the name recognition disadvantage.  Certainly the disadvantage will lesson with the election in November from what it would have been had Barbour not ignored the law and held the election in March like it was supposed to have been done, but Musgrove is the better-known figure.

And being better known now means nothing. By the time the fall rolls around, that advantage is gone.

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And no where is it mentioned in that post that many whites - Republicans and Democrats - will be voting straight Republican in November in this racially polarized state.

Musgrove will not break 45% of the vote.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #29 on: May 17, 2008, 12:31:00 AM »

Mississippians split their ballots ALL THE TIME.  In 2007, Barbour won by 16 points, but Democrat Jim Hood broke 60% in the AG race, lt. gov. has a Republican blowout, but Democrats took back the state senate.
White Mississippians have no qualms about splitting their ballots.

With all due respect, Harry, this is a Presidential election year. It's very different especially in a state like MS.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #30 on: May 17, 2008, 12:52:34 AM »

Mississippians split their ballots ALL THE TIME.  In 2007, Barbour won by 16 points, but Democrat Jim Hood broke 60% in the AG race, lt. gov. has a Republican blowout, but Democrats took back the state senate.
White Mississippians have no qualms about splitting their ballots.

With all due respect, Harry, this is a Presidential election year. It's very different especially in a state like MS.
In 1996, 2000, and 2004, Gene Taylor was overwhelmingly reelected, despite his district going overwhelmingly to Dole or Bush.
Unfortunately, I cannot provide more and better examples, as Lott and Cochran were entrenched for so long, as our statewide elections are held in odd years.
However, if you want to look at 1995, 1999, 2003, 2007, whenever, you will find numerous examples of white Mississippians splitting their ballots, and people of differing parties being elected.

So you gave me Gene Taylor (one example) and that wasn't a statewide contest in a Presidential election year.
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HardRCafé
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« Reply #31 on: May 17, 2008, 02:55:15 AM »

This is in response to Phil, or anyone else who happens to be curious:

I believe Musgrove will pull this race out for these reasons:
Because that would be awesome.
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Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
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« Reply #32 on: May 17, 2008, 02:17:28 PM »

I want to see a poll before I comment on the competitiveness or uncompetitiveness of the MS Senate race.   

However, ,I would like to sign up to help Phil and the others find suitable content for Harry's post-November signature Smiley
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #33 on: May 17, 2008, 02:40:22 PM »

Current state of the race:




Best case scenario for Democrats:




I don´t think that Nebraska will be competetive.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #34 on: May 17, 2008, 03:19:49 PM »


However, ,I would like to sign up to help Phil and the others find suitable content for Harry's post-November signature Smiley

You can take up the responsibility. I'm not about rubbing it in someone's face when they're calling for an upset like this. Harry has his reasons. I think they're illogical. If he's wrong, maybe he'll learn.
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JSojourner
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« Reply #35 on: May 17, 2008, 05:42:32 PM »

1) Virginia

It won't be competetive.  We will win it easily.

2) New Mexico

Very competetive.  I like Udall to win and this to be another D pickup.

3) Colorado

See my note on Virginia.

4) New Hamphshire

Democrats are calling this one another slam dunk.  I hope so.  I am not so sure.  John Sununu has the advantage of incumbency, a fairly respected name and fewer ties to the religious nutcases that held former Senator Bob Smith in thrall. I hope Shaheen wins but I wouldn't count our Sununu.  I am calling it a pure tossup.

5) Alaska

Simple.  If Stevens is the candidate, Democrats pick up this seat.  Alaska Republicans have had a terrible run of corruption and nepotism.  But they should not hang their heads.  Sarah Palin is one of the brightest lights in the state and national GOP.  Still, I look for this to be a D pickup if Stevens runs.

6) Oregon

Lean Republican and unlikely to move.  Look, Gordon Smith is a pro-stem cell guy, a decent man and one of his biggest fans is Democrat Ron Wyden.  Oregonians have a good thing going with the both of them in office and I think they know it.  Smith has been critical of Bush (though probably not critical enough).  He'll lose support this time, but probably not enough to lose the election.

7) Minnesota

People said I was crazy when I hoped Ciresi would win the primary.  I like Al Franken.  I really do.  But I really don't like entertainers in politics, in either party.  They have the right to run, but they usually make monkeys of themselves and -- by association -- the party.  I sure hate Norm Coleman's politics, so I'd love to see him gone.  But unless things get appreciably worse nationally or in Minnesota, I think it's six more years of this a-hole.

Cool Maine

Looking less and less likely to be an Allen win.  It's not that Allen is unpopular or a bad Congressman.  His district loves him.  But Collins is also popular.  She comes from a long like of moderate Maine Republicans.  Frankly, I am terribly disappointed in her on the war.  I had hoped that both she and Olympia Snowe would join Senator Hagel in opposing it.  But she's pretty responsible on other issues -- I can't imagine Maine voters turning against her.  Her biggest worry is Allen, who is a pretty sharp guy and could make it close.

9) Mississippi (Wicker-Musgrove race)

Special election results notwithstanding, this is a safe R race.  As is the Thad Cochran race, also.

10) North Carolina

Safe R.  I know the numbers look bad for Liddy now but that's just it.  This is now.  It's a long way to November and North Carolina is still a blue state, not a purple one.

11) Texas

Safe R.  Which is a shame.  Because Cornyn is an idtiot of Inhofian proportions.

12) Nebraska

Bob Kerrey was our only chance.  Safe R.
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #36 on: May 17, 2008, 05:47:11 PM »



10) North Carolina

Safe R.  I know the numbers look bad for Liddy now but that's just it.  This is now.  It's a long way to November and North Carolina is still a blue state, not a purple one.

[/quote]

The Democratic Party at a local/state leve is very strong in NC. Dole will not win.
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Torie
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« Reply #37 on: May 17, 2008, 05:49:55 PM »

The Udall of NM is in a competitive race, but the one in Colorado is a slam dunk?  Do you have it backwards, JS?
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Robespierre's Jaw
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« Reply #38 on: May 17, 2008, 05:58:06 PM »


Virginia won't be competitive this Senatorial Election season. Warner should easily encounter for  Gilmore in a walk. Warner could potentially break 60 percent. Though at this point in time, I'm predicting 58-42%. D PICKUP


New Mexico isn't likely to be competitive in 2008, though it could end up being like the Senatorial Election in Virginia, with Congressman Udall winning in a walk. At this point, I'm saying it's lean Democrat and Udall should win against Pearce 54-45%. D PICKUP


Colorado, unlike Virginia and potentially New Mexico should be competitive this Election season. Going by current polls, yet another Congressman Udall pick up a Senate seat this November and  should defeat Bob Schaffer. At this point, I'm saying it's lean Democrat, with Udall to win 52-48%. D PICKUP


New Hampshire has the potential to be competitive, but the way current polls are suggesting, I would predict that former Governor Jeanne Shaheen would defeat incumbent Senator Sununu. Shaheen should defeat Sununu 53-47%. Like with Colorado, I would put New Hampshire in the lean Democrat column. D PICKUP


Who would have thought that Alaska might be competitive this November, we have all been proven wrong with this Senate race. I would expect the Mayor of Ancorhage, Mark Begich to defeat incumbent Ted Stevens (if he runs) 51-49%. Though saying this, I would say that Alaska is a pure tossup. TOSSUP


Should be one of the most competitive Senate races this year. I would expect incumbent Gordon Smith to fight off his likely opponent Jeff Merkley and keep the Oregon Senate seat in control of the Republican Party. Smith should defeat Merkley 52-48%. R HOLD


A little while ago, I believed that Al Franken could actually win a Senate seat. My beliefs have been diminished and I now expect incumbent Norm Coleman to encounter for Franken, even with former Governor Jesse Ventura in the race, which should make this Election even more interesting and competitive. Coleman should defeat Franken 53-47%. R HOLD


Whilst some believe that the Senatorial Election in Maine will be competitive, I highly doubt it will. Collins should be able to win a third term, defeating Congressman Tom Allen by a comfortable margin. Whilst her margin of victory won't be like her 2002 victory, Collins should defeat Allen 54-46%. R HOLD

9) Mississippi (Wicker-Musgrove race)

I don't see Harry's man Ronnie Musgrove being able to pick up a Senate seat in the Deep South in 2008. Wicker should easily win, probably 57-43%. R HOLD


North Carolina won't be competitive this Senate season. Liddy Dole should be able to win re-election in 2008. If Obama cannot win in North Carolina, then I doubt Kay Hagan can either. Dole should be able to defeat Hagan 55-45%. R HOLD


John Cornyn's Senate seat in Texas is a safe one, this it will not be competitive this Senate Season. Whilst Cornyn is like his Oklahoma counterparts, I don't see him losing to a man who's last name is Noriega, which is a shame. Cornyn should defeat Noriega 56-44%. R HOLD


Safe Republican no doubt about it. Johanns will be able to defeat Scott Klebb by a landslide of epic porportions. No point even predicting how much he'll win by, we all know it's going to be big.



You can probably tell, I do not know much about Senate races in the United States, so the margins will be a bit off what most of you guys expect they'll be. Thus, I don't care how badly you rip into my predictions.
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JSojourner
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« Reply #39 on: May 17, 2008, 05:58:11 PM »

The Udall of NM is in a competitive race, but the one in Colorado is a slam dunk?  Do you have it backwards, JS?

Nah.  The New Mexico Udall will have an opponent who is well known and well funded.  And the seat was held by a popular, beloved Republican to begin with.

The Colorado Udall will have a less known opponent.  I dunno about money.  And the seat was held by a very unpopular, ineffective Republican.

Too, if there are coattails (which I doubt), then I would suspect Colorado voters would trend a little bit more D than New Mexico voters.  Then again, you know my track record.  TSONGAS FOR PRESIDENT!
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Torie
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« Reply #40 on: May 17, 2008, 06:00:45 PM »

Well the polls show the opposite. Colorado is a more GOP state than New Mexico generically. I am not sure Allard was that unpopular, but maybe you saw some polls on that.
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #41 on: May 17, 2008, 06:02:40 PM »

10) North Carolina
[/quote]

North Carolina won't be competitive this Senate season. Liddy Dole should be able to win re-election in 2008. If Obama cannot win in North Carolina, then I doubt Kay Hagan can either. Dole should be able to defeat Hagan 55-45%. R HOLD

[/quote]

Dole didn't even get 55% the when she won the first time against a sucky candidate.  The go around, Dole isn't that popular, she hasn't done anything at all. Obama will bring out high black and young voter that will vote for all democrats. Dole will be sent back to KS with her loser husband.
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Robespierre's Jaw
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« Reply #42 on: May 17, 2008, 06:12:40 PM »

Dole didn't even get 55% the when she won the first time against a sucky candidate.  The go around, Dole isn't that popular, she hasn't done anything at all. Obama will bring out high black and young voter that will vote for all democrats. Dole will be sent back to KS with her loser husband.

See I told you my predictions of their respective margins of victory was bad Tongue. And whilst Obama might bring out a record high turn out of African-Americans and the young, do you believe that Obama would be able to swing North Carolina in 2008? I don't forsee it occuring in 2008, North Carolina, especially in Presidential Elections is a safe Republican state.
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #43 on: May 17, 2008, 06:34:55 PM »

Dole didn't even get 55% the when she won the first time against a sucky candidate.  The go around, Dole isn't that popular, she hasn't done anything at all. Obama will bring out high black and young voter that will vote for all democrats. Dole will be sent back to KS with her loser husband.

See I told you my predictions of their respective margins of victory was bad Tongue. And whilst Obama might bring out a record high turn out of African-Americans and the young, do you believe that Obama would be able to swing North Carolina in 2008? I don't forsee it occuring in 2008, North Carolina, especially in Presidential Elections is a safe Republican state.

Well Dole only got 53% of the vote in 2002, with it being an election year and high black and young voters turn-out, I smell a Hagan win.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #44 on: May 17, 2008, 06:38:59 PM »

If I had to place money, I would place it on CO being the better chance of the GOP hold, easily.  There's one group of people in Colorado, whose name starts with an E, that keyed Salazar's win in 2004, and simply don't exist very much in NM.

Although NM does have a history of surprises, so I may turn out to lose this one.

I don't have much else to say here, for now, except the Texas as a light color is kind of amusing to me.
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« Reply #45 on: May 17, 2008, 08:50:06 PM »

I find it amazing how the Democratic Party has accomplished nothing in government since the 1960s and yet is seemingly approaching a monopoly on government...
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Adlai Stevenson
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« Reply #46 on: May 18, 2008, 09:37:02 AM »


Virginia won't be competitive this Senatorial Election season. Warner should easily encounter for  Gilmore in a walk. Warner could potentially break 60 percent. Though at this point in time, I'm predicting 58-42%. D PICKUP


New Mexico isn't likely to be competitive in 2008, though it could end up being like the Senatorial Election in Virginia, with Congressman Udall winning in a walk. At this point, I'm saying it's lean Democrat and Udall should win against Pearce 54-45%. D PICKUP


Colorado, unlike Virginia and potentially New Mexico should be competitive this Election season. Going by current polls, yet another Congressman Udall pick up a Senate seat this November and  should defeat Bob Schaffer. At this point, I'm saying it's lean Democrat, with Udall to win 52-48%. D PICKUP


New Hampshire has the potential to be competitive, but the way current polls are suggesting, I would predict that former Governor Jeanne Shaheen would defeat incumbent Senator Sununu. Shaheen should defeat Sununu 53-47%. Like with Colorado, I would put New Hampshire in the lean Democrat column. D PICKUP


Who would have thought that Alaska might be competitive this November, we have all been proven wrong with this Senate race. I would expect the Mayor of Ancorhage, Mark Begich to defeat incumbent Ted Stevens (if he runs) 51-49%. Though saying this, I would say that Alaska is a pure tossup. TOSSUP


Should be one of the most competitive Senate races this year. I would expect incumbent Gordon Smith to fight off his likely opponent Jeff Merkley and keep the Oregon Senate seat in control of the Republican Party. Smith should defeat Merkley 52-48%. R HOLD


A little while ago, I believed that Al Franken could actually win a Senate seat. My beliefs have been diminished and I now expect incumbent Norm Coleman to encounter for Franken, even with former Governor Jesse Ventura in the race, which should make this Election even more interesting and competitive. Coleman should defeat Franken 53-47%. R HOLD


Whilst some believe that the Senatorial Election in Maine will be competitive, I highly doubt it will. Collins should be able to win a third term, defeating Congressman Tom Allen by a comfortable margin. Whilst her margin of victory won't be like her 2002 victory, Collins should defeat Allen 54-46%. R HOLD

9) Mississippi (Wicker-Musgrove race)

I don't see Harry's man Ronnie Musgrove being able to pick up a Senate seat in the Deep South in 2008. Wicker should easily win, probably 57-43%. R HOLD


North Carolina won't be competitive this Senate season. Liddy Dole should be able to win re-election in 2008. If Obama cannot win in North Carolina, then I doubt Kay Hagan can either. Dole should be able to defeat Hagan 55-45%. R HOLD


John Cornyn's Senate seat in Texas is a safe one, this it will not be competitive this Senate Season. Whilst Cornyn is like his Oklahoma counterparts, I don't see him losing to a man who's last name is Noriega, which is a shame. Cornyn should defeat Noriega 56-44%. R HOLD


Safe Republican no doubt about it. Johanns will be able to defeat Scott Klebb by a landslide of epic porportions. No point even predicting how much he'll win by, we all know it's going to be big.



You can probably tell, I do not know much about Senate races in the United States, so the margins will be a bit off what most of you guys expect they'll be. Thus, I don't care how badly you rip into my predictions.

Not everything always adds up to 100% exactly in the Senate races - I mean there are third-party candidates etc.  So its not always going to be 52%-48%.
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« Reply #47 on: May 18, 2008, 02:48:22 PM »

Summary of Republican arguments for Wicker:

It's Mississippi, so Wicker has to win.
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Smash255
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« Reply #48 on: May 18, 2008, 03:36:02 PM »

The Udall of NM is in a competitive race, but the one in Colorado is a slam dunk?  Do you have it backwards, JS?

Nah.  The New Mexico Udall will have an opponent who is well known and well funded.  And the seat was held by a popular, beloved Republican to begin with.

The Colorado Udall will have a less known opponent.  I dunno about money.  And the seat was held by a very unpopular, ineffective Republican.

Too, if there are coattails (which I doubt), then I would suspect Colorado voters would trend a little bit more D than New Mexico voters.  Then again, you know my track record.  TSONGAS FOR PRESIDENT!

Both Udall's are likely to win, but Tom Udall (NM) is pretty much safe.  Latest poll has Udall with a 16 point lead on Pearce and a 21 point lead on Wilson
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HardRCafé
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« Reply #49 on: May 19, 2008, 01:26:53 AM »

Dole didn't even get 55% the when she won the first time against a sucky candidate.

Dole won by the largest margin of any North Carolina Senate candidate since Watergate, Democrat or Republican.
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