Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 22, 2014, 10:49:28 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  2004 U.S. Presidential Election
| | |-+  2004 VP candidates
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: 2004 VP candidates  (Read 14923 times)
zorkpolitics
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1047
United States


View Profile
« on: November 23, 2003, 12:08:06 pm »
Ignore

Although the normal role of a VP candidate is, Do No Harm, perhaps this election will be different.
I assume Dean wins the nomination, since he is the candidate with the most money, the only candidate with active campaigns in most of early primaries states, and he leads in NH.
So who would be his best and/or most likely VP running mate?
Compared to Gore, Dean probably would win NH, but that's all.  On the other hand he is unlikely to win anything in the South, (including FL).
With Dean at the top the Democrats have two valid electoral strategies to build on Gore's states.

1) Put on a Southern who can peel off several Southern states (such has FL, AK, LA, TN, WV).  
2) Abandon the South and go for an upper Midwest/Southwest strategy (OH, MO; CO, NV, AZ).

Neither Kerry nor Lieberman helps with either strategy.

For #1 the obvious candidates are Edwards, Graham and Clark.  I think Clark is actually the stronger candidate, bringing national security strength to balance Dean's total lack of experience.  Graham offers the promise of FL 27 EV, and Edwards NC, but I don’t think either could deliver.

For #2, NM Governor Richardson might energize enough Hispanics to win NM, AZ, NV, and CO.  I don't think Gerhardt offers much beyond a shot at MO and maybe help in WV.

Ay other thoughts?
Logged

"Scientists are treacherous allies on committees, for they are apt to change their minds in response to arguments" C.M. Bowra
Sibboleth
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 57236
Saint Helena


View Profile WWW
« Reply #1 on: November 23, 2003, 12:35:13 pm »
Ignore

I can't comment on Florida as I know next to nothing about it(see "Information needed), but I think that Edwards might help the Dems steal NC as the economic situation is pretty gloomy there at present.
Although having Dean on the ticket might trash that.
Logged

Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.
jmfcst
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18304
United States


View Profile
« Reply #2 on: November 23, 2003, 01:13:29 pm »
Ignore

Edwards couldn't help in SC, he would have had trouble being reelected in the Senate.  

If Dean is the nominee, nothing is going to help him in the South.

The political and social undercurrents are such that Dean will be extremely lucky to win 10 states against Bush in 2004.

Logged

Do not fight with one another over my banning.  I've enjoyed the time I have spent with all of you, but the time really has come for me to leave.  It is what I want.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z9Y_GLT4_9I

I looked over Jordan, and what did I see?
Coming for to carry me home,
A band of angels coming after me,
Coming for to carry me home.

Swing low, sweet chariot,
Coming for to carry me home.
Ryan
ryanmasc
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 332


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: November 23, 2003, 02:01:10 pm »
Ignore

I agree that Clark or Richardson are the best bets Dean has (and I also agree that either will help him win Cheesy)

And also (I'm being very Agreeable today Grin) since the midwest will be a decider in the event of a close race, a VP who can pull votes there might be a good idea. However I dont really know of anyone who fits the bill. ........

Gephardt as VP?? doesnt seem to work to me.
How bout Evan Bayh of Indiana??
Logged

Quote
© tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35897
United States


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: November 23, 2003, 03:15:34 pm »
Ignore

Clark would be a great VP candidate.  He would bering the nat'l security strength that Dean doesn't have to the table.
Logged

itís hard enough to be eighteen
when the whole wants to know whoís winning

itís hard enough to be alone, with the person you are not becoming

itís hard enough to be alone, itís hard enough to be together
itís hard enough to be alone
Sibboleth
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 57236
Saint Helena


View Profile WWW
« Reply #5 on: November 23, 2003, 03:38:35 pm »
Ignore

Edwards couldn't help in SC, he would have had trouble being reelected in the Senate.  

If Dean is the nominee, nothing is going to help him in the South.

The political and social undercurrents are such that Dean will be extremely lucky to win 10 states against Bush in 2004.



Could you drop the excessive hyperbole occasionally?
Logged

zorkpolitics
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1047
United States


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: November 23, 2003, 04:08:03 pm »
Ignore

So let's go one step further in speculation, if a Dean/Clark ticket was looking strong in the polls by the Republican convention, would Bush replace Cheney?

I think he could.
1) His policies have strong support in the conservative base, so he no longer needs Cheney to prove his conservatism.
2) Bush, is pretty practical and if a better VP were availble, he might go for him/her.

Best choice to strengthen Bush in the Mid-Atlantic would be Guliani, putting NY, NJ, and CT in play, solidify suburban support in OH, PA and MI.

The choice of Powell or Rice, might also add votes from the suburbs in PA, OH, MI, IA, WI, MN, FL.  I think it would also tend to increase the Hispanic vote for Bush, helping with CO, AZ, NM, NV.   Of course a minority VP would cut white support in the South, but it might be balanced by some gain in African-American support.  But I'm skeptical if any minority Republican would increase Bush's dismal proportion of the African-American vote.  
Logged

"Scientists are treacherous allies on committees, for they are apt to change their minds in response to arguments" C.M. Bowra
Demrepdan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1320


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: November 23, 2003, 05:11:27 pm »
Ignore

Clark would definitely make a good VP candidate. Number two would be Edwards. Those two candidates will more than likely help pull in a FEW southern states. Gephardt? Hmm...I dunno.
     I wouldn't be surprised if someone picked Carol Mosely-Braun as their VP candidate. If elected, she would be the first black Vice President, as well as the first female Vice President. But this a'int gonna happen.
Oh hey! What about Al Sharpton? Wink
Logged

Moderately-Liberal Progressive Populist Libertarian Democrat.
Michael Z
Mike
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4335
Political Matrix
E: -5.88, S: -4.72

View Profile
« Reply #8 on: November 23, 2003, 09:39:02 pm »
Ignore

I agree with what's been said on Edwards and Clark. Two very obvious choices, especially for someone like Dean.

I don't think Gephardt's pride would allow him to run as VP, but then of course you never know. Either way, he could actually garner more votes in the South than Clark or Edwards.

Bob Graham did his chances nothing but harm with a severely haphazard bid. Before his Presidential campaign I would have figured him along the favourites for a VP slot, but now he's just some crackpot has-been to most people.

Other names which I think are worth mentioning: Joseph Biden, Chris Dodd, Dianne Feinstein. Maybe Moseley-Braun too.
« Last Edit: November 23, 2003, 09:47:34 pm by Michael Zeigermann »Logged
NorthernDog
Full Member
***
Posts: 167


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: November 23, 2003, 09:54:11 pm »
Ignore

I think Clarke is very likely because he polls better w/ men and won't mind playing 2nd fiddle to Dean. He's also physically fit and could endure the rigours of the election campaign. (That would be a problem w/ Finestein she is nearly 70 y.o!) I think Gephart's and Kerry's strident attacks have angered Dean enough to cross them off the list.  
On the GOP side I think Cheney stays unless his ticker starts acting up again.
Logged
Demrepdan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1320


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: November 24, 2003, 12:12:23 am »
Ignore

What about Hillary? Who knows, someone might pick Sen. Clinton as their running mate. That would be a very foolish thing to do though.
« Last Edit: November 24, 2003, 12:13:23 am by Demrepdan »Logged

Moderately-Liberal Progressive Populist Libertarian Democrat.
Ryan
ryanmasc
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 332


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: November 24, 2003, 03:09:32 am »
Ignore

A) A black VP nominee wont help Bush crack into the black vote. A Hispanic VP might vastly increase the GOP showing in the Hispanic community. I would say that a BLACK GOP PRESIDENTIAL nominee wouldn't take more than 20-30% of the black vote and again the reverse applies to a Hispanic nominee

B) Bush would never drop Cheney unless Cheney himself elects to drop out!!!!
If there is one thing that endears Bush to ordinary people its his standards of integrity and loyalty. He would NEVER dump Cheney for electoral gain.

I just wish Cheney who is also a reasonable man and a party loyalist would see that the GOP would gain much more from SEVERAL other VP possibilities.


So let's go one step further in speculation, if a Dean/Clark ticket was looking strong in the polls by the Republican convention, would Bush replace Cheney?

I think he could.
1) His policies have strong support in the conservative base, so he no longer needs Cheney to prove his conservatism.
2) Bush, is pretty practical and if a better VP were availble, he might go for him/her.

Best choice to strengthen Bush in the Mid-Atlantic would be Guliani, putting NY, NJ, and CT in play, solidify suburban support in OH, PA and MI.

The choice of Powell or Rice, might also add votes from the suburbs in PA, OH, MI, IA, WI, MN, FL.  I think it would also tend to increase the Hispanic vote for Bush, helping with CO, AZ, NM, NV.   Of course a minority VP would cut white support in the South, but it might be balanced by some gain in African-American support.  But I'm skeptical if any minority Republican would increase Bush's dismal proportion of the African-American vote.  

Logged

Quote
Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.
jmfcst
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18304
United States


View Profile
« Reply #12 on: November 24, 2003, 04:02:54 am »
Ignore

Edwards couldn't help in SC, he would have had trouble being reelected in the Senate.  

If Dean is the nominee, nothing is going to help him in the South.

The political and social undercurrents are such that Dean will be extremely lucky to win 10 states against Bush in 2004.



Could you drop the excessive hyperbole occasionally?

Then mark this thread for future reference and we'll see how much of an exaggeration it was.
Logged

Do not fight with one another over my banning.  I've enjoyed the time I have spent with all of you, but the time really has come for me to leave.  It is what I want.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z9Y_GLT4_9I

I looked over Jordan, and what did I see?
Coming for to carry me home,
A band of angels coming after me,
Coming for to carry me home.

Swing low, sweet chariot,
Coming for to carry me home.
Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.
jmfcst
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18304
United States


View Profile
« Reply #13 on: November 24, 2003, 04:05:29 am »
Ignore

Clark would definitely make a good VP candidate.

Clark was fired from his command and the details aren't pretty.  He would not be a safe choice.
Logged

Do not fight with one another over my banning.  I've enjoyed the time I have spent with all of you, but the time really has come for me to leave.  It is what I want.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z9Y_GLT4_9I

I looked over Jordan, and what did I see?
Coming for to carry me home,
A band of angels coming after me,
Coming for to carry me home.

Swing low, sweet chariot,
Coming for to carry me home.
Ryan
ryanmasc
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 332


View Profile
« Reply #14 on: November 24, 2003, 12:32:22 pm »
Ignore

Edwards couldn't help in SC, he would have had trouble being reelected in the Senate.  

If Dean is the nominee, nothing is going to help him in the South.

The political and social undercurrents are such that Dean will be extremely lucky to win 10 states against Bush in 2004.
Could you drop the excessive hyperbole occasionally?

Hmmmm I wonder who it was who made the following quote about poor ol' Reagan Grin

He would have lost.
Economics was never his strong point and the late '70's saw a World Recession.
Logged

Quote
Paul
Rookie
*
Posts: 32


View Profile
« Reply #15 on: November 24, 2003, 01:53:23 pm »
Ignore

As far as the GOP goes, I don't think Bush will drop Cheney unless Cheney drops dead...or at least comatose.
For the Dems, Clark was the favored VP contender for Dean until he got into the race.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Edwards picked as a running mate by the nominee, considering the need to at least make the South competitive.  (And Edwards is not running for reelection to the Senate).
Logged
CHRISTOPHER MICHAE
Guest
« Reply #16 on: November 29, 2003, 03:16:23 am »

Clark would be a great VP candidate.  He would bering the nat'l security strength that Dean doesn't have to the table.
I've been told on a previous thread that Clarke would never be Dean's Running Mate because they are running against one another and because they disagree on many issues. The one commonality they do share, and all candidates do, is the belief that G.W. must be sent back to Texas to live.
Logged
DarthKosh
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 902


View Profile
« Reply #17 on: November 29, 2003, 01:47:54 pm »
Ignore

Clark would be a great VP candidate.  He would bering the nat'l security strength that Dean doesn't have to the table.
I've been told on a previous thread that Clarke would never be Dean's Running Mate because they are running against one another and because they disagree on many issues. The one commonality they do share, and all candidates do, is the belief that G.W. must be sent back to Texas to live.

I don't think that Clark and Dean like each other.
Logged
Ryan
ryanmasc
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 332


View Profile
« Reply #18 on: November 29, 2003, 04:09:37 pm »
Ignore

Clark would be a great VP candidate.  He would bering the nat'l security strength that Dean doesn't have to the table.
I've been told on a previous thread that Clarke would never be Dean's Running Mate because they are running against one another and because they disagree on many issues. The one commonality they do share, and all candidates do, is the belief that G.W. must be sent back to Texas to live.

I don't think that Clark and Dean like each other.

Hmm I heard otherwise....that they were in touch before Clark ran and Clark even gave Dean some advice an all. Still the info may  not have been that accurate
Logged

Quote
Sibboleth
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 57236
Saint Helena


View Profile WWW
« Reply #19 on: November 30, 2003, 05:59:36 am »
Ignore

Dean seems to have upset both Clark and Edwards over the Battle Flag remark/row.
Logged

MSUfan
Jtfdem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6407
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: 4.70

View Profile
« Reply #20 on: November 30, 2003, 04:38:03 pm »
Ignore

Before Gephardt and dean attacked eachother at the debate, they would have made exellent partners. but now.........no
Logged
Demrepdan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1320


View Profile
« Reply #21 on: November 30, 2003, 05:27:21 pm »
Ignore

Does ANYONE get along with Dean? By this reasoing, one would assume that NONE of the other contenders would be Dean's choice for the Vice Presidential candidate.
Logged

Moderately-Liberal Progressive Populist Libertarian Democrat.
jravnsbo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1898


View Profile
« Reply #22 on: November 30, 2003, 06:03:36 pm »
Ignore

VP CAndidates- If Dean is the nominee, he needs a lot of help.  He does not play well in the South and will hurt the Congressionala nd Senate candidates.

Some picks not mentioned here are Gov Rendell of PA ( Dems must win PA to win); Sen Bayh (IND) to play int he midwest and he has political ambitions in 2008, unfortunately he is up for reelection in 2004 and unlikely to do it.  But yes those mentioned also ie Richardson, Clark and Edwards.  Edwards has said many times though he doesn't want to be VP.
Logged

Currently in Iraq, risking my butt to protect yours!

Republicans think every day is July 4, Democarts think every day is April 15
President Reagan

Well I can hear you and soon the whole world will hear all of us. President George Bush
Demrepdan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1320


View Profile
« Reply #23 on: November 30, 2003, 06:35:42 pm »
Ignore

Edwards has said many times though he doesn't want to be VP.

Carol Mosley-Braun has said the same thing. She says she is "in it to win it".

 Other people that probably won't accept the VP nominaton are Liberman (for certain) Kerry, and Gephardt. Kerry and Gephardt might reluctantly accept the nomination. But I think Gephardt, even more so than Kerry, won't want to be VP after having run for the President TWICE and lost the nomination.
Logged

Moderately-Liberal Progressive Populist Libertarian Democrat.
emergingDmajority1
Full Member
***
Posts: 245


View Profile
« Reply #24 on: November 30, 2003, 07:22:58 pm »
Ignore

Mosely-Braun is in it to raise name recognition. By now it should be clear to her that she can't win it. She needs to leave and stop taking time away from other Dems in the debates.

I believe Edwards would accept the VP spot, doesn't matter what he says now. Edwards on the ticket would be energizing.

No way does Lieberman even get considered for a VP spot by anybody.
Logged

Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines