Oregon - OFFICIAL rumors and results thread

[Alcon]

It's official 'cause I say so.

This morning's projection puts turnout estimate at about 68% for Democrats.

[Joe Biden 2020]

The Oregon results won't be released until after 11:00 pm Eastern, according to CNN.  This means it could be a long night for me.  I normally like to go to bed by 11:00 Central, but it may be 12:00 or 1:00.

[Meeker]

The Oregon numbers should be right at 8PM PST. They're already counting them.

[Eraserhead]

I assume it will be called around 11:01 (eastern time).

[Verily]

The Oregon numbers should be right at 8PM PST. They're already counting them.

Multnomah County will release the results of pre-Monday balloting right at 8 PM. The other counties will follow between 8 and 9:30, and Monday and Tuesday ballot totals will start to be released by 11 PM. Full results won't be known until about noon tomorrow. (All of this is PT.)

[Alcon]

Ben Smith (of Politico)'s request for "reports from the ground" in Oregon generated a lot of snark, and at least one novel concept.  Ladies and gentlemen, the mailman's exit poll:

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Some guy in Eugene says Obama is popular there or something:

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(And, yes, Springfield is a sticking point for Obama.)

From Washington County, Portland burbland:

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As usual, these unverifiable anecdotal examples change everything.

[Eraserhead]

If Obama won by 20 points, I think that would have to considered a somewhat better than expected showing.

Oh yeah and GO RON PAUL!!!111

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

I'm betting Clinton lovers won't be watching MSNBC. 

[Rob]

Yeah, Obamamania has swept Eugene. I've had people passing in cars shout for me to vote Obama, out of the blue, and his signs are everywhere.

I voted for him and Steve Novick and turned my ballot in a few days ago.

[Verily]

The Oregon numbers should be right at 8PM PST. They're already counting them.

Multnomah County will release the results of pre-Monday balloting right at 8 PM. The other counties will follow between 8 and 9:30, and Monday and Tuesday ballot totals will start to be released by 11 PM. Full results won't be known until about noon tomorrow. (All of this is PT.)

More clarification. This means that Obama will do better than his statewide results early on as the first numbers will be from the Portland area. Those numbers will decline as the night goes on, but then they'll start to rebound as the last-minute ballots are counted (which all the polls have suggested will favor Obama more strongly than otherwise). None of that should be surprising. Young voters vote late and older voters vote early, whether in mail-in balloting or normal on-the-day balloting.

[JSojourner]

Portland is the most populous part of Oregon and I would guess it's solid Obama.  Eastern and Center Oregon -- areas like Bend and so forth -- should be pro-Clinton, no?

Does anyone know how Salem and Medford look?

[Alcon]

Portland is the most populous part of Oregon and I would guess it's solid Obama.  Eastern and Center Oregon -- areas like Bend and so forth -- should be pro-Clinton, no?

Ehh, hard to say.  Obama pretty much tied in Eastern Washington, so it's a difficult thing to gauge.  Bend has a lot of college students and environmentalists (some of the highest hybrid car ownership rates in the country), even if their newspaper endorsed Clinton.  Despite a high Hispanic population and a visit from Bill, Hood River should be good for Barack.  There's a university in LaGrande too, as there is in Pendleton, Klamath Falls and Baker City are question marks.

Does anyone know how Salem and Medford look?

Salem - Suffolk's mini-poll of Marion County noted a state-average result.  This area should be a good barometer, although Obama's ceiling here is probably lower than statewide.

Medford - Good damn question.

[JSojourner]

Portland is the most populous part of Oregon and I would guess it's solid Obama.  Eastern and Center Oregon -- areas like Bend and so forth -- should be pro-Clinton, no?

Ehh, hard to say.  Obama pretty much tied in Eastern Washington, so it's a difficult thing to gauge.  Bend has a lot of college students and environmentalists (some of the highest hybrid car ownership rates in the country), even if their newspaper endorsed Clinton.  Despite a high Hispanic population and a visit from Bill, Hood River should be good for Barack.  There's a university in LaGrande too, as there is in Pendleton, Klamath Falls and Baker City are question marks.

Does anyone know how Salem and Medford look?

Salem - Suffolk's mini-poll of Marion County noted a state-average result.  This area should be a good barometer, although Obama's ceiling here is probably lower than statewide.

Medford - Good damn question.

But will Bill Clinton get a substantial number of write-in votes in....Beaverton?


::: runs :::

[Mr. Morden]

Round 1 of useless info from the exit polls:

link

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[Eraserhead]

OR and KY are going to have hilariously divergent results.

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/05/20/politics/horserace/entry4111767.shtml

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[Eraserhead]

Hmmm... OR is looking like a big smackdown too.

[Eraserhead]

Chris Matthews just said that Obama won white males 2-1 in Oregon according to the "exit poll".

So yeah, blowout.

[Joe Biden 2020]

They said that Obama won't speak until closer to midnight Eastern after the Oregon results start coming in at 11:00 pm EDT.

[Eraserhead]

A big question: Will Obama win hispanics?

[Joe Biden 2020]

We're under 2 and a half hours.  Who's going to stay up with me?

[NOVA Green]

Portland is the most populous part of Oregon and I would guess it's solid Obama.  Eastern and Center Oregon -- areas like Bend and so forth -- should be pro-Clinton, no?

Does anyone know how Salem and Medford look?

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I agree with Hood River and LaGrande... I am a little more skeptical about Klamath Falls and Baker City however. Hillary's positioning of herself to the Right of the party within the past month has changed things since Obama swept Eastern Washington. Since I'm not from that part of the state, I'm not sure how the "bitter" remarks and the Wright controversy played in that region. Certainly regional county maps look good on paper, but it is now May not January / February.

[quote][Salem - Suffolk's mini-poll of Marion County noted a state-average result.  This area should be a good barometer, although Obama's ceiling here is probably lower than statewide.[quote]

Good point! As I have mentioned on other threads Marion County is the key to CD-5, not as much the winner of the county, but rather the margins vis-a-vis Clackamas and the heavily Democratic / Liberal vote in Benton County (which went for Jackson 55-45 in '88). The key question is how well Obama will do with Latinos that make up 25%+ of Marion.... He has the endorsement of PCUN (a major Latino farmworker and tree-planter union) and recently got a lot of local media buzz for dropping in at a Mexican restaurant in Woodburn (pop 4000) in Marion, and will probably exceed his statewide percentages amongst Latinos in this area.

[Tender Branson]

We're under 2 and a half hours.  Who's going to stay up with me?

I´m already up. It´s 3:40 AM here ...

[Alcon]

Oregon Progressive raises a good point, especially since Washington was an open primary and McCain-favoring rural Democrats could vote for him.

We'll see in about 90-120 minutes

[NOVA Green]

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Good point! As I have mentioned on other threads Marion County is the key to CD-5, not as much the winner of the county, but rather the margins vis-a-vis Clackamas and the heavily Democratic / Liberal vote in Benton County (which went for Jackson 55-45 in '88). The key question is how well Obama will do with Latinos that make up 25%+ of Marion.... He has the endorsement of PCUN (a major Latino farmworker and tree-planter union) and recently got a lot of local media buzz for dropping in at a Mexican restaurant in Woodburn (pop 4000) in Marion, and will probably exceed his statewide percentages amongst Latinos in this area.