Oregon - OFFICIAL rumors and results thread

[Alcon]

Baker flips to Obama

Race of candidate "important" or "one of several":

Oregon: 10%
Kentucky: 21%

Race of candidate "important" or "one of several":

Oregon: Obama +4
Kentucky: Clinton +65 (among whites, Clinton +79)

So...yeah.

White Democrats were Obama +8, IIRC better than his Illinois performance, and second only to his Vermont showing.

[Alcon]

Wheeler County 97% in, Clinton leads by 5 votes

#%&#ing Gilliam screw-ups won't let me sleep

[Meeker]

Something weird happened on the Oregonian's site... they were up to 80% reporting, then went down to 70%, and are now back up to 72%

[Meeker]

And now they have Gilliam reporting... with 116% in!

[Alcon]

29/36 for me, it looks like.

Missed Baker, Crook, Curry, Gilliam, Grant, Jefferson and Umatilla

I also can't offer any earthly explanation for why Gilliam was so different than Morrow or Sherman...especially since Sherman has one Dem town (Rufus) which I assumed might've been The Dalles-y spillover even though it looks poor and unpleasant.

All of my misses were pretty much in the same damn area too, stupid north-central Oregon

[Alcon]

The fall in ballots counted is because Washington County is listed as 0% reporting for some reason.

(Can you tell I don't want to go to sleep?)

[Meeker]

The fall in ballots counted is because Washington County is listed as 0% reporting for some reason, btw.

Ah. Odd.

Does anyone have final delegate estimates in Oregon?

[Alcon]

Does anyone have final delegate estimates in Oregon?

Looks like:

OR-1: 4-3 Obama
OR-2: 3-2 Obama
OR-3: Very close, probably 6-3 Obama, might be 5-4
OR-4: 4-3 Obama
OR-5: 3-3 split

At-large: 7-5 Obama

PLEOs: 3-3 Obama, might tip to 4-2 Obama

Total: Between 29-23 and 31-21 Obama, my guess would be 30-22

[NOVA Green]

29/36 for me, it looks like.

Missed Baker, Crook, Curry, Gilliam, Grant, Jefferson and Umatilla

I also can't offer any earthly explanation for why Gilliam was so different than Morrow or Sherman...especially since Sherman has one Dem town (Rufus) which I assumed might've been The Dalles-y spillover even though it looks poor and unpleasant.

All of my misses were pretty much in the same damn area too, stupid north-central Oregon

Which thread did you post those in? Hey--- i have to say that I am surprised on Obama winning CD-2.... Jackson and Josephine have changed much more than I remember... congrats on calling those right. I should have suspected when Obama drew 1,500 in Roseburg!!!

[Eraserhead]

He won white men by 2:1, broke even among white women and won those making under 50,000 a year. I'm pretty happy.

And it looks like my prediction was even dead on (58%-42%).

[Eraserhead]

90% Reporting

Obama 59%
Clinton 41%

Any chance of him hitting 60%?

[Verily]

90% Reporting

Obama 59%
Clinton 41%

Any chance of him hitting 60%?

Possible, given that most of the outstanding votes are from Lane, Multnomah and Washington, but doubtful. He must be near the lower end of 59% (that is, around 58.7% or so) right now.

Four delegates for Ron Paul! The Rloveution is back!

[Alcon]

Some of these results are a little sketchy.  Turnout among Columbia County Democrats was 42%  vs. 62% for Republicans?  Grant County GOP turnout was 14%?  Well, whatever.  Tentative final map:



(Write-ins not included because they aren't official and not all counties track them)

Two-party results (removing Grant's obviously incorrect 74% Dem, and with no report from Lake):



With unaffiliateds and minor-party ballots thrown in:



The GOP map was boring.  McCain >80 everywhere except for McCain >70 in Grant, Josephine, Morrow and Wallowa.

[Sbane]

What chance is there that Jackson county will flip in November? I guess he cant improve too much on Kerry's numbers in Asheville so most of it would have to come from Medford. I guess Obama could get the margin down to single digits but he will still lose the county.

[Alcon]

What chance is there that Jackson county will flip in November? I guess he cant improve too much on Kerry's numbers in Asheville so most of it would have to come from Medford. I guess Obama could get the margin down to single digits but he will still lose the county.

Ashland must have had amazing turnout, but the areas in the Rogue River Valley are pretty damn conservative.  He also has a massive deficit to make up.

Bush lost Ashland proper by 56 points, but won Medford proper by 21, and won the Rogue River Valley and rural areas by a combined 34 points.  It will be a tough nut to crack, especially since Ashland turnout was already strong and Democratic-dominated in 2004.

It will be interesting to see if Obama is making inroads in some of the more rural areas.  Honestly, even after having been to Medford, I don't totally understand the culture of the area.

[Sbane]

What chance is there that Jackson county will flip in November? I guess he cant improve too much on Kerry's numbers in Asheville so most of it would have to come from Medford. I guess Obama could get the margin down to single digits but he will still lose the county.

Ashland must have had amazing turnout, but the areas in the Rogue River Valley are pretty damn conservative.  He also has a massive deficit to make up.

Bush lost Ashland proper by 56 points, but won Medford proper by 21, and won the Rogue River Valley and rural areas by a combined 34 points.  It will be a tough nut to crack, especially since Ashland turnout was already strong and Democratic-dominated in 2004.

It will be interesting to see if Obama is making inroads in some of the more rural areas.  Honestly, even after having been to Medford, I don't totally understand the culture of the area.

Yes Medford is hard to read. The best estimation is that it could swing towards Obama but there are enough conservatives there that Mccain should win Medford and the county overall. Btw do you know where we can get city results for the primary?

[Alcon]

Yes Medford is hard to read. The best estimation is that it could swing towards Obama but there are enough conservatives there that Mccain should win Medford and the county overall. Btw do you know where we can get city results for the primary?

I just sent out a mass-email for precinct results five minutes ago.  Some counties will refuse them until the election is certified.  Others are nicer.

So far all I've got is Morrow, but I'll post town results as interesting counties come in.

[Sbane]

Yes Medford is hard to read. The best estimation is that it could swing towards Obama but there are enough conservatives there that Mccain should win Medford and the county overall. Btw do you know where we can get city results for the primary?

I just sent out a mass-email for precinct results five minutes ago.  Some counties will refuse them until the election is certified.  Others are nicer.

So far all I've got is Morrow, but I'll post town results as interesting counties come in.

Cool thanks!!

[War on Want]

I nailed this one, in an another forum I predicted 58-42 and I came only .5% off.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obama carried every district, and almost certainly got enough to win 6 delegates in OR-3. Also with the final numbers he should easily take 4/6 of PLEOs.

So it looks like 31 delegates for him.

[Eraserhead]

99% Reporting

Obama 59%
Clinton 41%

I love how the media is only talking about Clinton's KY win, by the way. Fair and balanced as usual.

[Iosif is a COTHO]

99% Reporting

Obama 59%
Clinton 41%

I love how the media is only talking about Clinton's KY win, by the way. Fair and balanced as usual.

IF OBAMA CANNOT WIN APPALACHIAN WORKING CLASS WHITES HE IS DOOMED!!!11111!!!!!

[Eraserhead]

99% Reporting

Obama 59%
Clinton 41%

I love how the media is only talking about Clinton's KY win, by the way. Fair and balanced as usual.

IF OBAMA CANNOT WIN APPALACHIAN WORKING CLASS WHITES HE IS DOOMED!!!11111!!!!!

ha. Yes, it goes something like that Mango. Nevermind the fact that Obama completely dominated among whites in Oregon. Only Appalachian whites are true whites, apparently.

[Sbane]

Oregon was closer in the last 2 elections than either West Virginia or Kentucky but they end up being the swing state. Its like OMGZZZ Obama cannot win WV but nobody cares whether Hillary can win OR. Please stop with this bullsh**t about the media favoring Obama. They were favorable at the start because Hillary was winning and they needed competition and now its the other way so Hillary is receiving better coverage now for basically the last month. This means the media is not biased towards Obama or Clinton but rather towards money.

[NOVA Green]

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What is fascinating, is that Obama won did so well amongst bitter religious gun-owners in places like Douglas, Jackson, Josephine, and Lincoln counties. Honestly, as someone who has lived here much of his life, I can say that this genuinley shocked me. I had some discussions on another thread about CD-2, and by predicted that it would be extremely unlikely that he could win that district. Hillary played well in much of rural and former timber country in the state, but she did not get the landslide many of us locals were expecting.

Considering that non-whites went for Obama by only slightly larger margins than whites, and some 16% of voters were non-white, and 3% of total voters were Black, I would say that Obama's "Asian problem" and Latino problem" would seem to be over, at least on the West coast