Oregon - OFFICIAL rumors and results thread

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I actually think Obama never had an "Asian problem" outside of California.

[Sbane]

I actually think Obama never had an "Asian problem" outside of California.

There was no "asian problem" to begin with. Is it really surprising to you guys that immigrants, many who would be casting ballots for the first time, would rather cast a ballot for the known rather than the unknown? They remember the Clinton years and they long for that. Same with hispanics and probably blue collar whites.

[Alcon]

Most counties are being (understandably) stingy about pre-certification results.  Only Benton, Morrow, Polk and Sherman have indulged me so far.

For Benton County, Obama received 72.1% of the vote in Corvallis (Oregon State) and 66.9% in Philomath (Hewlett-Packard).

In Polk County, Obama received 60.7% in Monmouth (Western Oregon University) and lost Dallas (a lumber town), 1043-1040.

[Verily]

I actually think Obama never had an "Asian problem" outside of California.

I'd be interested to see if Asians cast votes disproportionately early. That might explain the California results, as Asians were not particularly more Clinton elsewhere.

It may also have to do with which Asian group you're talking about, of course. Japanese fit pretty well into the Obama category: they're mostly third generation or more and generally wealthier than the average American and vote pretty much like their white counterparts (albeit more Democratic). Chinese are less wealthy than Japanese and much more often second generation or even first generation. They might be more inclined to Clinton. Similar for Koreans, although they tend to be as wealthy as Japanese but overwhelmingly first and second generation. Filipinos are much poorer than the others and also Catholic. Various refugee groups (Vietnamese, Hmong) are mostly second-generation, poor, and often not very integrated.

[Alcon]

I've looked at the results for two kinds of Asian neighborhoods:  one, areas where Asians tend to be immigrants or at least working-class.  Clinton wins these although not overwhelmingly.
 Unfortunately, outside of California, it's hard to find areas where these areas aren't also full of condo-yuppies, who obviously vote more than immigrant Asians and vote for Obama.

Two, areas where Asians tend to be middle-class and Americanized.  Obama seems to do quite fine in these areas, although less so where Filipinos are dominant.

I also think Verily's early voting theory is a very plausible one, and one I'd not considered before.

[Sbane]

I was thinking about it and 2 asian communities that have been here for a long time are the chinese in SF and Japanese around the state. I truly wonder how the Japanese voted but early voting might skew that. Asians in SF tend to be poorer and that could explain why Clinton did so well in the city. Overall Clinton is very popular in most of the state and I do not find it surprising that asians voted for her when she was the clear favorite to win the presidency. Asians and Latinos have a tendency to vote like their sorrounding communities and for incumbents. Now that the incumbency aura is off Clinton's head Asians are making a more independent decision.

[NOVA Green]

I actually think Obama never had an "Asian problem" outside of California.

Hard to say outside of California, because Asians are such a small subset of the electorate in most regions that there are no exit poll breakdowns.

Of course, if one had access to precinct data overlapped with census-tract info from areas with large Asian populations might be able to draw stronger inferences. If anyone could provide that for the Hollywood district of Portland (large Vietnamese and Cambodian population) it would be most interesting.

[Alcon]

I actually think Obama never had an "Asian problem" outside of California.

Hard to say outside of California, because Asians are such a small subset of the electorate in most regions that there are no exit poll breakdowns.

Of course, if one had access to precinct data overlapped with census-tract info from areas with large Asian populations might be able to draw stronger inferences. If anyone could provide that for the Hollywood district of Portland (large Vietnamese and Cambodian population) it would be most interesting.

Hollywood and western Mt. Tabor are the first places I'm going when Multnomah certifies and  posts their results...unfortunately there are lots of whites in both places, and the Asians don't vote much.  That's pretty much the problem everywhere outside of

But Obama did fine on Beacon Hill, a Seattle neighborhood where the voters are probably about 50% Asian, 25% white, 20% black.

[NOVA Green]

I actually think Obama never had an "Asian problem" outside of California.

Hard to say outside of California, because Asians are such a small subset of the electorate in most regions that there are no exit poll breakdowns.

Of course, if one had access to precinct data overlapped with census-tract info from areas with large Asian populations might be able to draw stronger inferences. If anyone could provide that for the Hollywood district of Portland (large Vietnamese and Cambodian population) it would be most interesting.

Hollywood and western Mt. Tabor are the first places I'm going when Multnomah certifies and  posts their results...unfortunately there are lots of whites in both places, and the Asians don't vote much.  That's pretty much the problem everywhere outside of

But Obama did fine on Beacon Hill, a Seattle neighborhood where the voters are probably about 50% Asian, 25% white, 20% black.

Beacon Hill? My sister has lived in Seattle for a few years now, and I didn't know the Asian percentages were that high in this neighborhood. Do you have a more specific ethnic breakdown by country of origin?

Also, do you have any precinct data from either of the two orthodox Jewish neighborhoods in Seattle? In particular Seward Park?

[Alcon]

Beacon Hill? My sister has lived in Seattle for a few years now, and I didn't know the Asian percentages were that high in this neighborhood. Do you have a more specific ethnic breakdown by country of origin?

Beacon Hill is 51% Asian, 20% White, 13% black, 9% Latino, 5% other...that's all I can find.  I think the Filipino are #1 but vote less.  Chinese and Vietnamese are #2 and #3, I think.  I wish I had a Seattle neighborhood break-down by ethnic origin but I haven't been able to find one.

Also, do you have any precinct data from either of the two orthodox Jewish neighborhoods in Seattle? In particular Seward Park?

I'm not sure Seward Park is Orthodox Jewish any more - it's pretty WASPy I think - but Obama won it 63%-36%.  I know most Orthodox Jews in Seattle live within that area, but I don't think they're anywhere near a majority of voters.

Interesting, the Seattle Wiki article says "more recent arrivals [of Orthodox Jews] have been settling north of the Lake Washington Ship Canal in Wedgwood, Hawthorne Hills, and Ravenna and in nearby communities such as Mercer Island."  Hawthorne Hills is my "second home" and while I know there's one synagogue on its outskirts, I never knew it had a significant Orthodox Jew population...never seen a single yarmulke there. 

[NOVA Green]

Beacon Hill? My sister has lived in Seattle for a few years now, and I didn't know the Asian percentages were that high in this neighborhood. Do you have a more specific ethnic breakdown by country of origin?

Beacon Hill is 51% Asian, 20% White, 13% black, 9% Latino, 5% other...that's all I can find.  I think the Filipino are #1 but vote less.  Chinese and Vietnamese are #2 and #3, I think.  I wish I had a Seattle neighborhood break-down by ethnic origin but I haven't been able to find one.

Also, do you have any precinct data from either of the two orthodox Jewish neighborhoods in Seattle? In particular Seward Park?

I'm not sure Seward Park is Orthodox Jewish any more - it's pretty WASPy I think - but Obama won it 63%-36%.  I know most Orthodox Jews in Seattle live within that area, but I don't think they're anywhere near a majority of voters.

Interesting, the Seattle Wiki article says "more recent arrivals [of Orthodox Jews] have been settling north of the Lake Washington Ship Canal in Wedgwood, Hawthorne Hills, and Ravenna and in nearby communities such as Mercer Island."  Hawthorne Hills is my "second home" and while I know there's one synagogue on its outskirts, I never knew it had a significant Orthodox Jew population...never seen a single yarmulke there. 

It probably depends on where the precinct lines are drawn.... you go five blocks west and you hit Ranier Blvd.... heavily AA for those of you outside the NW.

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Not to nit-pick, but HP is based in Corvallis and of the total workforce, including contractors) it breaks down 40% Benton, 40% Linn, with most of the rest Polk, Marion, and Lane. Philomath is a former mill town of 4500 about four miles West of town that has predominately become a bedroom community of Corvallis, although there is still a significant old-time mill worker presence. HP is actually a marginally larger employer than Oregon State

[Alcon]

Anyone who can orient African-American population based on Rainier Avenue is free to nit-pick me to their heart's content. 

[bgwah]

Using census tracts 94, 100, 104, and 110 for Beacon Hill, then as of the 2000 census the neighborhood had 28,603 people of whom 14,801 (or about 51.75%) were Asian.

Broken down by ethnicity, Beacon Hill has:
6,264 Chinese
3,103 Filipinos
2,165 Vietnamese
1,090 Japanese

[NOVA Green]

Using census tracts 94, 100, 104, and 110 for Beacon Hill, then as of the 2000 census the neighborhood had 28,603 people of whom 14,801 (or about 51.75%) were Asian.

Broken down by ethnicity, Beacon Hill has:
6,264 Chinese
3,103 Filipinos
2,165 Vietnamese
1,090 Japanese

Thanks! Any precinct data that overlaps with this hood?

Anyone who can orient African-American population based on Rainier Avenue is free to nit-pick me to their heart's content. 

Fair enough... I appreciate the more detailed breakdowns you have provided so far....

If you manage to get enough data to compile city returns for Beaverton, Hillsboro, Oregon City, Salem, Roseburg, Grants Pass, and Medford that would be totally awesome!

[Torie]

Speaking of orthodox Jews and Mercer Island, Michael Medved lives on Mercer Island, but I don't think he voted in the Dem primary.   I know a WASP lawyer who lives on Mercer Island, but he doesn't vote in the Dem primary either.

[Alcon]

Fair enough... I appreciate the more detailed breakdowns you have provided so far....

Precinct lines aren't perfect, so I've had to include some SoDo (virtually no registered voters) and some blocks in the Rainier Valley, but like 99% of this is Beacon Hill.  Obama received 55.3% of the vote, Clinton 43.2%.

North Beacon Hill, increasingly trendy gentrified condo-land, was 57.1-40.5 (+16.5);  Mid-Beacon Hill was 54.5-44.6 (+10.1); and South Beacon Hill/Holly Park was 54.3-44.2 (+9.9).

If you manage to get enough data to compile city returns for Beaverton, Hillsboro, Oregon City, Salem, Roseburg, Grants Pass, and Medford that would be totally awesome!

2008 primary's going to take a while, but once the counties certify the results I'll have them all.

I have 2004 Presidential results for almost all of these cities if that's the contest you're looking for. 

[War on Want]

Alcon do you have 2004 results for precincts in Idaho, Washington and Oregon? I really want some of those to look for trends and such.

[Torie]

Might as well put the Seattle file online, since it's my data, not Dave's proprietary stuff.

Here is the Excel spreadsheet.  It should be self-explanatory, with one worksheet by neighborhood and one broken down further by precinct.  Obama is red, Clinton is blue.

2008 primary results by Seattle neighborhood [.XLS]

These are based on the Seattle Neighborhood Atlas.  These divisions don't have demographics, but this file I made might he helpful-ish:

Seattle Neighborhood Demographics [.XLS]

It's based on slightly wider neighborhood definitions based on Census tracts, and gives general neighborhood profiles.

For the really adventurous, precinct maps (Seattle is in the 13th, 34th, 36th, 37th, 43rd and 46th) are here, and a precinct browser is here.

Your XLS links fail.