The please don't let Harry see this thread

[MarkWarner08]

According to internal Democratic polling, former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove is leading unelected Republican Senator Roger Wicker 48-40. Musgrove only trails Wicker by 5% in MS-01, which was Wicker's old House seat.
http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2008/05/mississippi-senate-musgrove-leads-in.html

Could Harry be right about this district? Is MS-Sen really a toss-up? The answer could be yes for the same reason MS-01 was so competitive. In three words: no party baggage. As per Mississippi election law, this special election will not feature the party affiliations of the candidates. This means Musgrove can run the same kind of deceptive campaign of muddling the differences between the Democrat and the Republican on social issues without appearing hypocritical.

The lack of party ID on the ballot could destroy the saliency of  the GOP tactic of tying a Southern Democrat to the national party -- which  was crucial to the GOP sweep the open Senate races in 2004.

If Musgrove can run a folksy campaign and triangulate on guns, abortion, and taxes, he might force the NRSC to drop some coin here. Finally, a Musgrove take over of Lott's former Senate seat, following a Childers win in a district vacated by a Congressman who replaced Trent Lott in the Senate, would create a serious blemish on Trent Lott's political legacy.

[Brittain33]

Even if you factor out the partisanity, that's a great result for Musgrove. Three weeks ago many of us would have predicted a DSCC poll here to show Wicker leading Musgrove 42%-34% with high undecideds, and Musgrove leading 44%-43% when people are read biographies...

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Ohhhhhh boy.

I greatly dislike being forced to root for the Republican simply out of spite, but here we are.

[Adlai Stevenson]

'Like the 1st District race, party labels will not appear on the ballot beside Wicker and Musgrove’s name, because the November race is technically a special election to fill Republican Trent Lott’s seat. That factor could help Musgrove win voters who are also planning to vote for Republican Sen. John McCain, who is winning the state 50%-41%, according to the poll. President Bush won Mississippi 59%-39% in 2004.

Even though he has the lead today, the race is still a difficult one for Musgrove, since the state leans Republican in federal races. But it can no longer be considered Safe for the Republicans. We’re moving the race to Clear Advantage for the Incumbent Party.'

Does anyone else think this will be something of a break for Musgrove?

[CollectiveInterest]

The Bush hangover is coming for the GOP.

[Lief 🗽]

DailyKos also has a Research2000 poll in the state polling this race. It should come out in the next few days, and hopefully it shows similar results. Picking up Trent Lott's seat would be great.

[7,052,770]

[minionofmidas]

Eh. I still consider Wicker the favorite. And I didn't need this poll to know that anyone who dismisses the race as a foregone conclusion (ie more than half the forum) is off his rocker.

[7,052,770]

I find it so hilarious how few replies this thread is getting.  I'm aware that the majority of the forum has just decided that Wicker will win and they're mad that they're seeing evidence to the contrary, but you'd think they'd be mature enough to at least discuss this interesting development on the race.

[TheresNoMoney]

I find it so hilarious how few replies this thread is getting.

I can't wait for that Research 2000 poll on this race to come out in the next few days. Will have plenty to say then.

[Brittain33]

I find it so hilarious how few replies this thread is getting.

I can't wait for that Research 2000 poll on this race to come out in the next few days. Will have plenty to say then.

Yeah, there's just nothing more to say about this poll.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I find it so hilarious how few replies this thread is getting.  I'm aware that the majority of the forum has just decided that Wicker will win and they're mad that they're seeing evidence to the contrary, but you'd think they'd be mature enough to at least discuss this interesting development on the race.

There will be something to say once there's an unbiased poll out, I'm sure.  DSCC polls are essentially throwaways.

[7,052,770]

Cook has moved the race to "Tossup."

Sounds like many of you non-Mississippians spoke too soon when you thought this was a safe Republican seat.

[Joe Biden 2020]

For the record, I never considered Mississippi to be a Republican stronghold this time around.  Not after what happened in LA-06 and MS-01.  Musgrove has a really good shot here and I wouldn't be a bit suprised if he takes it.

I seriously believe the Republican South is showing signs of wear and tear with Mississippi now having a majority-Democratic House delegation (3 Democrats to 1 Republican) and now the possibility of a split Senate.

Harry, when would this winner (Musgrove/Wicker) be up for re-election.  I imagine they will serve the remainder of Lott's term.  I doubt they get a full 6-year term as that would mean Mississippi would be electing two Senators every 6th year.

[minionofmidas]

Harry, when would this winner (Musgrove/Wicker) be up for re-election.  I imagine they will serve the remainder of Lott's term.  I doubt they get a full 6-year term as that would mean Mississippi would be electing two Senators every 6th year.

'deed so. It's a by-election for the remainder of Lott's term.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Harry, when would this winner (Musgrove/Wicker) be up for re-election.  I imagine they will serve the remainder of Lott's term.  I doubt they get a full 6-year term as that would mean Mississippi would be electing two Senators every 6th year.

'deed so. It's a by-election for the remainder of Lott's term.

Forgive me for not remembering when Lott was re-elected, but will his term be up in 2010 or 2012?  If I recall correctly, it will be 2012, right?

[minionofmidas]

Harry, when would this winner (Musgrove/Wicker) be up for re-election.  I imagine they will serve the remainder of Lott's term.  I doubt they get a full 6-year term as that would mean Mississippi would be electing two Senators every 6th year.

'deed so. It's a by-election for the remainder of Lott's term.

Forgive me for not remembering when Lott was re-elected, but will his term be up in 2010 or 2012?  If I recall correctly, it will be 2012, right?

Same here. I suppose one of us could look it up.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Harry, when would this winner (Musgrove/Wicker) be up for re-election.  I imagine they will serve the remainder of Lott's term.  I doubt they get a full 6-year term as that would mean Mississippi would be electing two Senators every 6th year.

'deed so. It's a by-election for the remainder of Lott's term.

Forgive me for not remembering when Lott was re-elected, but will his term be up in 2010 or 2012?  If I recall correctly, it will be 2012, right?

Same here. I suppose one of us could look it up.

It will be 2012.