FL: Rasmussen: Obama trails McCain by 10, while Clinton leads by 6

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Florida President by Rasmussen on 2008-05-19

Summary: D: 47%, R: 41%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details


McCain - 50%
Obama - 40%


Favorable Ratings:

Clinton - 53% favorable, 44% unfavorable
McCain - 50% favorable, 46% unfavorable
Obama - 48% favorable, 49% unfavorable

[Eraserhead]

Should Obama even waste his time here?

[Democratic Hawk]

Should Obama even waste his time here?

Depends on how the land lies following the Democratic National Convention and whether or not, Florida Democrats feel that the delegate dispute has been satisfactorily resolved. It's plain to see from recent polls that Obama's problems in FL are essentially down to the extent to which Democrats are prepared to defect to McCain

And to do this may require an act of goodwill on the part of Obama. He certainly has his work cut out for him to stand any chance of being competitive against McCain

Dave

[Brittain33]

Should Obama even waste his time here?

Yes. The electorate here is a lot less predictable and a lot swingier than in many other states, and the potential pay-off is enormous. (The last part is something I don't see enter into a lot of people's recommendations that Obama write off Florida.)

[Boris]

Should Obama even waste his time here?

No, he's not winning it in a 50-50 national race. If Obama wins Florida, it means he's won in at least a mini-landslide nationally.

[ChrisFromNJ]

I cannot get over the absurdity that the Democrats are nominating a candidate who might lose Florida by 10 points. The Democrats are giving away another election.

[jesmo]

I cannot get over the absurdity that the Democrats are nominating a candidate who might lose Florida by 10 points. The Democrats are giving away another election.

To get the Democratic nomination, it is generally important to the primary and caucus voters that you are unelectable.

[Joe Republic]

I cannot get over the absurdity that the Democrats are nominating a candidate who might lose Florida by 10 points. The Democrats are giving away another election.

I guess it would have made up for losing Wisconsin and the chance to pick up Iowa and Colorado again, huh?

[Sam Spade]

another lol poll...

Seriously though, Boris is right.  With Obama, the numbers probably lean +5 McCain compared to his national number, whatever that may be.

[ChrisFromNJ]

I cannot get over the absurdity that the Democrats are nominating a candidate who might lose Florida by 10 points. The Democrats are giving away another election.

I guess it would have made up for losing Wisconsin and the chance to pick up Iowa and Colorado again, huh?

Don't forget about Virginia and North Carolina!

[Joe Republic]

I cannot get over the absurdity that the Democrats are nominating a candidate who might lose Florida by 10 points. The Democrats are giving away another election.

I guess it would have made up for losing Wisconsin and the chance to pick up Iowa and Colorado again, huh?

Don't forget about Virginia and North Carolina!

What current polling data do you base that on?

[Alcon]

I cannot get over the absurdity that the Democrats are nominating a candidate who might lose Florida by 10 points. The Democrats are giving away another election.

I guess it would have made up for losing Wisconsin and the chance to pick up Iowa and Colorado again, huh?

Don't forget about Virginia and North Carolina!

I don't get it.  Are you comparing Obama's relative chances in VA & NC to IA, CO & WI?

[ChrisFromNJ]

I cannot get over the absurdity that the Democrats are nominating a candidate who might lose Florida by 10 points. The Democrats are giving away another election.

I guess it would have made up for losing Wisconsin and the chance to pick up Iowa and Colorado again, huh?

Don't forget about Virginia and North Carolina!

What current polling data do you base that on?

I was joking. Obama has no chance to win Virginia or North Carolina in a 50/50 election.

[Brittain33]

I cannot get over the absurdity that the Democrats are nominating a candidate who might lose Florida by 10 points. The Democrats are giving away another election.

I think it's more absurd to pass judgment based on polls six months out in one of the few states Obama hasn't campaigned in and one where the state party has issues it needs to and will resolve before November. Also, a state with a notoriously fickle and disengaged electorate.

Sure, Obama has some obstacles in Florida, but it ain't Georgia or even 2004's Florida, and I distinctly remember Democrats writing off Florida early in the 2000 season.

[Flying Dog]

The last Rassmussen poll had McCain up 53-38.

[Brittain33]

The last Rassmussen poll had McCain up 53-38.

Well, that is bad.

[Lief 🗽]

I'd prefer he spend his time in VA and NC.

[Tender Branson]

In November, there will be a DOMA referendum in FL ? This will help McCain and Obama won't come within 5% ...

[Brittain33]

In November, there will be a DOMA referendum in FL ? This will help McCain and Obama won't come within 5% ...

The evidence suggests that gay marriage as an issue helped the Republicans in '04, but that DOMA amendments don't actually help Republican candidates. In 2004, there were amendments in states from Oklahoma to Michigan to Oregon, and the Republican margin increased by more than the national average in the really right-wing states (OK, UT), stayed close to the national margin in others, and fell behind or slipped in others (Oregon, Ohio).

In 2006, I distinctly remember Freepers crowing that George Allen was safe when they heard that its DOMA passed immediately after polls closed. Republicans got whupped all over the country even as DOMA amendments passed handily everywhere but Arizona.

People are perfectly capable of voting to ban gay marriage and civil unions and then voting Democratic on other issues. The hardcore religious righters are coming out to vote regardless.

[Alcon]

Arizona's DOMA was 2007, along with South Dakota's narrow pass, although I agree with your points and conclusion anyway.