Shea-Porter trails in re-election bid

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Politico.com:
Shea-Porter requests DCCC help in race
By JOSH KRAUSHAAR | 5/21/08 4:18 AM EST

In an otherwise merciless election environment for Republicans, one Democratic member of Congress is endangered enough to have called in reinforcements from the national party.

After spending the past year declining assistance from national Democrats, Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-N.H.) has agreed to be a part of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s Frontline program, which helps vulnerable incumbents with fundraising and campaign infrastructure.

Shea-Porter, who staged an upset victory in 2006 over GOP incumbent Jeb Bradley by highlighting her anti-war credentials, originally refused help from national Democrats, citing her own success with a grass-roots campaign structure.

...

The Granite State poll shows Shea-Porter trailing her potential Republican rival Bradley 45 percent to 39 percent in a head-to-head matchup and winning only 43 percent of the vote against a lesser-known Republican opponent, former state Health and Human Services Commissioner John Stephen.

Shea-Porter also suffers from a relatively low net favorability rating, according to the poll. Only 39 percent of voters view her favorably, while 28 percent view her unfavorably. Her 11-point net favorability rating has gone down 15 points since February.

For an incumbent to be polling below the 40 percent mark so long before Election Day is a serious sign of trouble, especially given the dismal national environment that the GOP faces. Shea-Porter’s vulnerability is even more surprising, considering political trend lines in New Hampshire, which was a killing field for Republican candidates in 2006.

“In this environment, it’s very concerning. It seems to defy the laws of political gravity this year. New Hampshire’s 1st District is a bellwether district, so the fact that she’d be trailing at this point has got to be very concerning,” said Scala."

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[MarkWarner08]

Mr. Moderate, why do you despise Ms. Shea-Porter? You're always writing threads about her impending doom in November. Is it that you're peeved that she's the only person in Congress who refuses to reveal her date of birth?

[WalterMitty]

gosh, i hope she loses.

bradley was one of my favorite members of congress.

[Keystone Phil]

Is it that you're peeved that she's the only person in Congress who refuses to reveal her date of birth?

Uh...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carol_Shea-Porter

[HardRCafé]

Mr. Moderate, why do you despise Ms. Shea-Porter? You're always writing threads about her impending doom in November. Is it that you're peeved that she's the only person in Congress who refuses to reveal her date of birth?

Is it just me, or is that the most bizarre first reply to any thread in a long time?

[MarkWarner08]

Mr. Moderate, why do you despise Ms. Shea-Porter? You're always writing threads about her impending doom in November. Is it that you're peeved that she's the only person in Congress who refuses to reveal her date of birth?

Is it just me, or is that the most bizarre first reply to any thread in a long time?

Well, HardRCafe, I could've replied by explaining why the methodological errors in the poll or why Shea-Porter will benefit from the decisive nature of the NH-01 Republican primary. But wasn't it more interesting to reply in a zany way?

Is it that you're peeved that she's the only person in Congress who refuses to reveal her date of birth?

Uh...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carol_Shea-Porter

That's new. She wouldn't tell the Congressional historians when she was first sworn into office.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Mr. Moderate, why do you despise Ms. Shea-Porter? You're always writing threads about her impending doom in November. Is it that you're peeved that she's the only person in Congress who refuses to reveal her date of birth?

Clearly, you have hit the nail on the head!

Honestly, I just plain don't like her because I do not think she had the resume or thoughtfulness to be a U.S. Representative.  She won based on a fluke (and on the coattails of a popular governor) against a thoughtful moderate whom I liked.  The people who voted for her by-and-large had no clue who the hell she was.

Plus, having her there is the equivalent of giving a seat in the U.S. House to the kids at DailyKos.

[MarkWarner08]

Mr. Moderate, why do you despise Ms. Shea-Porter? You're always writing threads about her impending doom in November. Is it that you're peeved that she's the only person in Congress who refuses to reveal her date of birth?

Clearly, you have hit the nail on the head!

Honestly, I just plain don't like her because I do not think she had the resume or thoughtfulness to be a U.S. Representative.  She won based on a fluke (and on the coattails of a popular governor) against a thoughtful moderate whom I liked.  The people who voted for her by-and-large had no clue who the hell she was.

Plus, having her there is the equivalent of giving a seat in the U.S. House to the kids at DailyKos.

I appreciate your sincere response. I agree that she's not the most qualified candidate to ever run for office, but so far she's avoided a David Funderburk or Martin Hoke type meltdown moment and she seems to be a competent Congresswoman.

I do disagree with your assertion that Bradley was a "thoughtful moderate". Anyone who brags about supporting the inane flat tax is neither a "thoughtful moderate" nor a thoughtful person period on economic matters.

[HardRCafé]

The people who voted for her by-and-large had no clue who the hell she was.

Nor Howard Dean. 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

When I talk about someone being a moderate, I mean, by-and-large, their views on social issues.  While I do not necessarily agree with the flat tax, I would prefer more Republicans take a socially moderate but economically conservative bent.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I am really surprised - it had seemed that New Hampshire had taken a definite swing to the left in 2006.  I still think that the state will vote for Obama over McCain (if narrowly) and that Shaheen will defeat Sununu, admittedly against this backdrop its hard to see Shea-Porter losing, but still this poll is a surprise.  New Hampshire is such a small state that the voters must be well-informed enough to know who they are voting for, and I could imagine this happening while she goes down. 

[Joe Republic]

I don't know if Shea-Porter will close the gap between now and November, but (s)he will most likely be helped by Jon Lynch's coat-tails (again).

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I don't know if Shea-Porter will close the gap between now and November, but (s)he will most likely be helped by Jon Lynch's coat-tails (again).

I'm sure Lynch being on the ballot won't hurt her in the slightest, but the value of those coattails will be diminished because of the Presidential and Senate race.

Lynch's race was the only major race on the ballot in 2006, and rather than going down the line voting for candidates, people just pulled the straight ticket lever.  I would imagine that fewer people will be interested in doing that this time around, especially since a solid number of McCain-Lynch-Sununu voters will be out there, some McCain-Lynch-Shaheen voters, and probably even some Obama-Lynch-Sununu voters.

She can't rely on the straight ticket lever that got her elected in 2006 lest she get swept out (the same way most folks who get elected solely on the basis of the straight ticket lever do).